It ends today. Thats right I'm calling it right here. Today...
Yes Today. Today we see the market resume its move lower, or break out. Not exactly a definitive call I know. That's like saying the NY Rangers are going to win their playoff game tonight, or they are going to lose it. However, like Hockey, momentum is key for the market.
We've had no definitive momentum for the stock market since moving off its multi year lows from a few weeks ago.
It's been a week + of market chop. Yesterdays concluding with a mostly flattish move, despite a large opening gap and fade.
With this mornings Target guidance warning, futures are lower. We are right near support. A hold today, and rejection of the downside would set up the SPY for a move to $440. A break to the downside would likely see that $400 level breached perhaps as soon as today, with the multi year lows in focus going forward.
Stunning really to think that we could be at SPY $470 or $330 several months from now, and most of us wouldn't be surprised.
$470? much like in 2020 when you put everything into perspective, with the FED talking up asset prices, and the stimulus and PPP loans getting handed out like flyers at a trade show, it was hard to imagine stocks going lower.
Right now, its hard to imagine stocks going higher. Every day from $SNAP to $WMT to $TGT to $MSFT, back to $TGT... expectations are getting cut.
Inflation remains at a 40+ year high. Interest rates are on the rise. Gas prices are at record highs.
One might wonder --- How is the $SPY at $408 and not at $330 already?
Perhaps this is just a long slow dance. The punch bowl isn't completely gone quite yet.
And prices are poised to roll over again starting this week.
I think we will find out today. Are we heading to new lows?
Or will this market surprise us, find support and move higher over the next few months. I think that is the least expected outcome, as most are looking for a lot more downside going forward. As always the market will have the final say.