Is it Different This Time?

Throughout the historic bull market rally from the March 2009 lows the sarcastic cries from the uber bearish mob were that it was different this time.

What they were trying to say was that the rally from the March 2009 lows were going to end in tears.  That much like the internet bubble and the great financial crisis, this most recent stock market rally will end with another market crash.  It wasn't different this time.   Every time is the same... a bull market ending in a market crash.  A 50-60% decline for the stock market....

One of the more notable crash callers... his name starting with a Huss and ending with a Man.... was busy tweeting in September 2019 with the $SPY at 290 that it was the best time ever to be shorting the stock market.  Ever.... even better than his 60% crash calls in almost every year prior to 2019.... yep... even better than that.

What did the $SPY do from that crash call at $290.... why it rallied to near $340 in the span of a few months.  Yep.  Another tremendous time to be long the stock market.

The "best time ever" to be short the market yielded yet another massive gain.

And then of course we have this once in a lifetime Pandemic come and pour cold water on the stock market rally.  Not only that, this Pandemic created a near perfect storm for the bears.  The shutdown of the entire global economy for MONTHS!

It was a scenario not even the most bearish of bears could have crafted in their stock market crash notebook.    Years of failed  red down arrows on charts.... and finally the bears get this.

...and the Nasdaq rallies to new all time record highs.... and then some....

The move for the NASDAQ has been nothing short of stunning... and you know what....

It is different this time....  it is..... clearly the bears can keep slinging their best time to short the market is every day that ends with a Y... but the market continues to go... UP.

I wrote about it last year as well.....

It’s 1929, or 2000, or 2007 All Over Again


Why is it different this time?  I've also stated this previously.... interest rates have been trending lower for 40 years!!!

How much money was the FED using to back asset prices in 2000 or 2007?

Was the FED buying Corporate bonds and ETFs in 2000 and 2007?

Was QE underway in 2000 and 2007?

Were interest rates around the globe going negative in 2000/2007?

The differences between today and 2000 and 2007.... are stark.  It is different!  Much different.  Outstanding share counts are down from years of relentless sharebuybacks.

Yes.... it is different this time.   The only thing that remains the same is the excessive bearishness.

Known to most as Uranium Pinto Beans, Jason has more than 15 years under his belt of trading stocks, options and currencies. His expertise primarily lies in chart analysis, and he has a strong eye for undervalued stock. Because he’s got the ability to identify great risk/reward trades he usually enjoys taking the path less traveled and reaping the benefits from the adventure.

He is a co-founder of Option Millionaires, and he is best known for his weekly webinars with Scott, as well as his high level training webinars and charts found in the forums.

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