February 12th, 2014 Watch List

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s first big test in front of Congress Tuesday was passed with flying colors, as the market rallied with approval of her comments. The 50dma on the SPY is now in the rear mirror and that $183 area that seemed so troublesome in January is back. It would be nice to muddle around $181.50 and $182.50 to end the week, but that may be wishful thinking.

Some more earnings out after the close yesterday, with FEYE, FOSL and TRIP all reporting some nice earnings - although FEYE & FOSL guidance may be a tad weak, though it also seems many analysts continue to be all aboard the FEYE train. FOSL beat estimates, but issued a slightly lower Q1 outlook. Bears continue to think the timepiece sector is becoming obsolete, yet this is the 2nd strong Q in a row with watch sales up 14% YOY. Is it maybe the time for FOSL to break and hold over $130? I have Z calls for after the bell and will lock in one of the strikes before 4pm.

SHLD and CALL ran nicely yesterday, although CALL faded after a morning surge. I still love CALL but I did lock some profits in on some FEB 15 and Mar 17.50 calls. I still hold SEPT 25 calls and may be looking for longer dated strikes on CALL. It would also be nice to see SHLD over $40 before the week is out, as I think the Berkowitz filing continues to be bullish.

I liked the action on SAM this morning and will look for a position today, as well as possibly trying to time some PCLN calls.

SCTY and SSYS have been dead ducks so far this week, which is why it's important to have other trades go the right way to offset the loss. I will hold those through the end of the week.

Here are the analyst changes of note for today:

FOSL Fossil price target remains $155 at Cowen
Cowen maintains it estimates and price target on Fossil following better than expected Q4 results. The firm cited healthy trends in its watch and jewelry portfolio and conservative company guidance. Shares are Outperform rated
REGN Regeneron re-initiated with a Buy at BofA/Merrill
Target $387
FOSL Fossil Q4 results strong, outlook conservative, says Jefferies
Jefferies believes Fossil reported strong Q4 results and views the company's outlook as conservative with potential upside. The firm raised its price target for shares to $150 from $145 and says the valuation is attractive at current levels. Jefferies keeps a Buy rating on Fossil
FEYE FireEye guidance a 'blip on the radar,' says FBR Capital
FBR Capital views FireEye's weaker than expected March quarter outlook as a "blip on the radar" that will likely prove conservative. FBR believes the company reported "impressive" Q4 results and raised its price target for shares to $90 from $85. The firm keeps an Outperform rating on FireEye
AMZN Amazon.com downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
UBS downgraded Amazon based on recent Q4 results that had a surprise deceleration in revenue and pain unit growth and disappointing Prime Survey results. The firm's survey survey indicates 94% of Amazon Prime customers would renew at the current $79 annual fee but if the price increases $20 or $40 the percentages drop to 58% and 24%, respectively. The firm lowered estimates to account for lower margin improvements and increased spending on Prime membership promotion and downgraded shares. Price target lowered to $375 from $450
CROX Crocs upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray upgraded Crocs after meeting with management in Asia and raised its price target for shares to $20 from $16. Piper believes Crocs' near-term trends are improving in the region and sees limited downside from current share levels
MA Jefferies sees 'multiple paths' for MasterCard to hit earnings target
Jefferies believes MasterCard has "multiple paths" to achieve its 20%-plus earnings CAGR guidance for the 2013-15 period. The firm says downward estimate revisions following MasterCard's Q4 results has led to questions on achievability of the three-year guidance. Jefferies keeps a Buy rating on MasterCard
FEYE FireEye reported strong Q1 results, says Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo believes that a number of issues, including the Mandian acquisition, created some "noise" on FireEye's Q1 guidance. However, the firm is very confident in the company's 2014 outlook and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares

Here are the strikes I'm looking at for the open:

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
SAM CALL $260.00 March .30 x 1.20 0.75
PCLN CALL $1,270.00 Weekly .45 x .70 0.60

Let's have a great day!

- JB

JimmyBob (Scott)has been trading equities for over 15 years, a majority of which were OTC micro-cap stocks. He started trading high risk stock options over the past 7 years, and has proven winning trades in excess of 15,000%.

As one of the Co-Founders of optionmillionaires.com, Scott enjoys sharing his knowledge with other investors through timely blog posts, daily watch lists in the forum, weekly webinars, and helpful advice within the chatroom.

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