Fill In The Blank is probably a more appropriate title.
Since the lows in March 2009 the stock market continues to climb that proverbial wall of worry. So many excuses to sell, so little time. The market is lower because (fill in the blank). There is always an excuse.
2020 has been no different with a litany of excuses to sell. Some excuses we haven't seen in some 100 years. We had the unthinkable shutdown of the entire global economy.
I half joked at the time... but really.... here we are, in 2020 with some of the most negative headlines we've ever seen and the stock market has hit new all time record highs...... laughing in the face of them all.
We sit even now, with the daily stimulus, Covid, and Election drama just percentage points from record highs.
My thoughts? This most recent pull back is just a healthy reset. And when all is said and done new all time record highs are coming.
I said the same thing in April near the lows... and not long after the stock market was yet again at new highs.
Maybe this time is different. But as I said this time last year, when the Repo man was alive and well... if the markets were really setting up for a massive decline because of the current "fill in the blank" I think we'd already be 5-10-20% lower.
The market isn't TODAY looking.... its FORWARD Looking.
Its got the back to the future DeLorean - see's what lies ahead and zooms back to position for it.
None of the massive upside stock market action was making sense to the pros in March and April.....
Rest assured when the stock market was hitting record highs months later the pros understood exactly why the market moved swiftly off the lows in March.
And yet it was the stock market that seemed to know what lied ahead. Not the market commentators.
Just fill in the blank, with whatever is being used as the days excuse for the markets pull back... like yesterdays 1,000 pt decline on the dow. And know that whatever excuse market participants are using is likely something the DeLorean has already seen.
With that... I think the market now is consolidating ahead of the election.
I'm not sure who wins. I'm not going to get into politics. Heck no! But what I do know... is that the market has already looked into 2021. And if either candidate was going to cause a market crash in 2021... it would have happened already....if that makes any sense.
My thoughts?
I think no matter who wins the market will breathe a sigh of relief. And the most recent consolidation phase will conclude at yet another record high.