Twitter and Apple are set to report earnings this week after the bell on Tuesday. They have both been broken down late last week:
- Here is a breakdown of Twitter heading into this quarters earnings report
- Here is a breakdown of Apple heading into this quarters earnings report
If we've learned anything from this earnings season - it is to expect more fireworks in the weeks ahead. I don't think $AAPL and $TWTR will disappoint those looking for a big post earnings move. Consider $TWTR one of the more explosive earning movers in recent memory. The stock consistently posts over a 10% move after its earnings report. A week later the move
tends to get even bigger.
The issue here is that the market is already pricing in a 10% move.
I think the risk is not for a collapse, but for a spike to the upside.
Here are two trades I am looking for:
TWTR Weekly $33 at $.80 or $34.50 at $.45
and go out to November for the long term continuation of the earnings move.
$35 November calls for $.70
Now on to $AAPL.
Historically over the last six years $AAPL has been literally a 50/50 proposition after its earnings report. A coin toss. But this time around I think the chart is tossing the coin. While I will trade $TWTR to head higher post earnings, I think $AAPL is setting up to trade lower. This weekend all I see is how $AAPL's earnings will propel the Nasdaq to a new all time high. While the Nasdaq may soar to a new high, I don't think it will be taken there atop $AAPL's back.
For one earnings has been falling since the stock peaked:
Estimize EPS estimates:
Historical Post earning moves:
The chart looks like its topping:
and the recent move higher has made the trade for downside that much less expensive. Which is nice.
I am looking at one trade heading into this report:
The $110 weekly puts at $.70
I have no position in either of these stocks at the moment and depending on what the market does on Monday these prices and possible entry points will likely change. Stay tuned in the chat room 'Top Picks' room and/or OMPrivatetwitter feed.