Dull Trade Ideas

Just like calling for the stock market to slowly grind to new record high after new record high, calling anything in  the stock market dull usually garners zero interest.


You know what?   That's fine by me.  For an option trader finding a dull, boring stock that is about to get exciting again offers a heart pounding risk reward.  Options are cheap.  The market expects dull and boring to stay dull and boring.

But you can reap some nice gains getting in dull and boring priced options before they become exciting.

BIDU was boring last October when I wrote it was poised for a move higher as the stock traded hands for $126 a share. It moved $100 higher hitting $227s.  Dec calls for the $155 strike were $.50 and hit $50 a few weeks later.

How about Goldman Sachs when it was quietly trading for $200 a share and I said it was setting up for a possible move to $230, 240, 250+ even?

try $273.

And EBIX when it was trading for $20.  I said it could get wild and move to $30, $40 $50 even?  Its up nearly 100% to near $40

And boring old Alcoa.

Actually at the time I called it .  boring old Aluminum...

The stock was at $11 and change.  I thought low $20s.... today its $24.40!  So much for boring...

and now to my favorites.  The boring old fertilizer stocks.

NTR I said it was heading back over $50 --- check

and then how about $MOS

I said $30 early next year.. as in 2021.  Here we are its at $24.  It needs 25% of upside.

I still think its coming.  Not only that I think $40, $50, and even $60 in 2021 is possible.  Boring old fertlizer.  Yep.  But for how much longer?

Corn Soybeans Oats Wheat  all at 6+ year highs.  Just wait till people realize they need fertilizer to grow....



and as a correlation.. Look at MOS vs. Wheat futures

While not 1 for 1 , as well with other grain futures like Corn, Soybeans.  One thing is clear.  The price is on the rise and farmers are likely to plant more... and need more fertilizer.  Which at a minimum means more fertilizer sales.

We just saw it last week when IPI rocketed 50%+ higher in one day after it reported rising Potash prices.

So prices are already rising.

I think boring old fertilizer is not going to be boring or dull in 2021.

With that  being said I have Jan 2021 and March 2021 calls for MOS.

Known to most as Uranium Pinto Beans, Jason has more than 15 years under his belt of trading stocks, options and currencies. His expertise primarily lies in chart analysis, and he has a strong eye for undervalued stock. Because he’s got the ability to identify great risk/reward trades he usually enjoys taking the path less traveled and reaping the benefits from the adventure.

He is a co-founder of Option Millionaires, and he is best known for his weekly webinars with Scott, as well as his high level training webinars and charts found in the forums.

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