Markets finally put an end to its losing streak with the S&P squeezing out a .10% gain yesterday. Asia markets closed mixed overnight while Europe stocks are in the green this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a higher open, the Dollar is lower while Yields, Oil, and Gold are higher.
Stocks closed higher yesterday and hopefully can continue the move today ahead of a huge PCE read on Friday. There is not much in the way of catalysts, and the holiday sessions tend to be lighter in volume, so should provide a backdrop for some nice moves in some of the oversold names. Would really like to see that $384 handle reclaimed in the next day or two with a lower than expected PCE read providing a boost into the holiday weekend:
I made quite a few trades yesterday:
I closed the last of my Jan $7 VKTX for nearly 100%. The stock had a quick drop off the highs and I was a little concerned about offering news. The stock then rebounded and I went and added some higher Jan strikes. Think VKTX is an attractive buyout candidate now on the heels of the MDGL data. May look for further out strikes today:
I also added NFLX calls. First I went and added the $300s as the stock started to reverse. The market then lost its footing and I went and closed them for a loss. I then went back and added $305s. Think NFLX trades into the mid-high $290s today and possibly $300+ tomorrow. Will look to close some out for 100% today to cover costs and ride the rest using $285 as a stop:
I also went and added some SPOT calls with the stock rallying off lows. Think this can trade north of $80 this week if the market finds footing. I was able to close some of my calls out for over 100% and will likely hold the rest for that move and may actually add some other strikes:
And lastly, I added some ALGN calls. The stock has been holding up quite well during the recent market weakness. Almost has me thinking there is someone adding a stake or a possible buyout on the table. May look for some other strikes to play it into 2023 for a move into the $230+ area:
Don't want to hold too much risk in this environment so likely won't add much today but if I do it will be in the names above as well as BLK, SQ, and ULTA.
Here are the analyst changes of note for today:
| Alphabet price target lowered to $120 from $130 at Evercore ISI |
| Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney lowered the firm's price target on Alphabet to $120 from $130 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. In the wake of several proprietary data points that suggest ongoing softness in online advertising and cloud computing demand, he has cut his 2023 and 2024 revenue estimates by 5% and his 2023 and 2024 operating income estimates by 9%, putting his forecasts "modestly below the Street," Mahaney tells investors. However, Mahaney continues to view Alphabet as "highly attractive for long-term investors," calling it a "Dislocated High Quality" stock |
Nike price target raised to $131 from $122 at Cowen |
| Cowen analyst John Kernan raised the firm's price target on Nike to $131 from $122 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The analyst said demand for the Nike and Air Jordan brands is inflecting with a near historical Q2 revenue beat relative to consensus expectations with sales +27% y/y on a constant currency basis |
| Constellation Brands price target lowered to $245 from $249 at Deutsche Bank |
| Deutsche Bank analyst Steve Powers lowered the firm's price target on Constellation Brands to $245 from $249 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The analyst expects "solid" fiscal Q3 results from Constellation, with his forecasts slightly above consensus led by continued momentum in the beer segment |
Citi sees some positives and negatives from FedEx print |
| Coming off the fiscal Q2 earnings call, Citi analyst Christian Wetherbee sees "some positives and some negatives" for FedEx. On the positive side, FedEx beat the $2.75 earnings per share guidance by a substantial amount with upside in Express and Ground, Wetherbee tells investors in a research note. That said, its fiscal Q3 earnings per share will likely be in the $2.55 range, below consensus estimates and worse than normal seasonality, implying a further deterioration in demand, particularly in the U.S., writes the analyst. He adds, "As we get closer to the bottom, we get the sense investors want to own FedEx, so while we still think it's a bit early in the economic cycle to get materially more constructive, we expect relative outperformance near term." Wetherbee keeps a Neutral rating on FedEx with a $190 price target. |
| General Mills price target raised to $76 from $72 at RBC Capital |
| RBC Capital analyst Nik Modi raised the firm's price target on General Mills to $76 from $72 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares after its Q2 earnings beat. The company reported a "solid" quarter with North America retail and the rest of the segments supporting a beat on the top and bottom in spite of the "softness" in its Pet business, the analyst tells investors in a research note. General Mills' Pet business is expected to improve in the second half of 2023 with better capacity and marketing investments, Modi adds |
| ike price target raised to $135 from $130 at Wells Fargo |
| Wells Fargo analyst Kate Fitzsimons raised the firm's price target on Nike to $135 from $130 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The analyst notes the company put up an "encouraging" Q2 print, with accelerating 17% top-line growth and better gross margins and SG&A. Net/net, Fitzsimons expects this print to underscore the strength all in of the Nike brand despite a volatile macro, and inventory progress points to a more normalized sales to inventory spread into 2024 and thus margin recapture prospects |
And this is what I am watching today: ALGN, SQ, VKTX, NFLX, ROKU, ULTA, BLK,, RARE, AYX, SPOT, BURL, WYNN, NVDA, COST, DIS, DKS, U, TWLO, WING, CMG, and DPZ.
Let's have a great day!
-JB