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Where are These Stocks Headed This Week? – $Z , $SINA, $SHLD, $SPY

theweekahead

Despite some volatility, the market finished the first week of September up nearly 1.4%. Will the green stretch into week 2? Syria will continue to garner headlines, with Congress coming back on Sept 9th and the President expected to address the country Tuesday night. This weeks jobless claims are expected to gain more attention as well with the disappoint of the August employment numbers and previous month downward revisions. I like quite a few stocks coming into this week and spoke in length about them on The Week Ahead Webinar : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/558-The-Week-Ahead-with-UPB-and-JB-9-8 .

Zilllow (Z) continues to defy gravity but did come under pressure on a downgrade Thursday. It needs to break and hold above $100 Monday or Tuesday or run the risk of losing steam, where the bears will take control and push the stock under $90. Still hold calls and will look to add more into strength, if we get it.

Z 9-8 - small

 

Sina has really started to move and continues to have some nice positive catalysts with Alibaba :http://thenextweb.com/asia/2013/09/05/video-the-next-battleground-for-chinas-internet-giants/ . The stock looks primed to break above $85 next week, and will look to add more calls on strength.

SINA 9-8 - small

 

 

Sears Holding (SHLD) finished the week up 6% despite selling off slightly on Friday. A place I rarely get my content from had a nice piece on some of  the reasons why I like the Sears Holding (SHLD) story : http://seekingalpha.com/article/1675422-long-case-for-sears-a-balance-sheet-story?source=google_news . Expecting a move to $50 in the coming sessions.

SHLD 9-8 - small

 

The 50dma on the $SPY has been a line in the sand for me in regards to remaining bullish. It tried and failed to hold above on friday, and will look for it to break and hold above this week. There are quite a few hurdles for the market in the coming weeks, but still think we shake it off and hit new highs before the years out.

SPY 9-8 - small

 

Lets have a great week!

- JB

Unusually High Put Volume

Symbol Last Price Volume Avg Opt Vol Put Vol Avg Put Vol Put Vol Ratio
ACHN $7.2 2080674 2144 2445 540 4.53
AGO $19.99 2088942 4720 5655 653 8.66
AMT $71.91 6812340 2257 3517 796 4.42
CIE $24.68 2582681 7112 12955 1638 7.91
CONN $53.2 7422637 4562 10064 1694 5.94
EOG $162.62 1886242 4334 7936 1414 5.61
ETFC $16.26 7548322 3514 9221 708 13.02
FNSR $23.45 10039140 3368 4018 998 4.03
GRA $83.38 2158406 1834 9048 715 12.66
MBI $11.98 2577003 1838 8759 785 11.16

Unusual Option Activity 9-6-13

It was a wild end to the start of September.  Stocks fell, rallied, then fell again into the close.  Even more wild was some of the options activity and trades today.  I covered a few of them in the forums here are optionmillionaires.com.

Unusual trades, unusual volume, and unusual open interest.

Here are the links to the forum.

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/forumdisplay.php/24-Unusual-Option-Volume

 

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/555-Options-Trading-With-High-Implied-Vol

 

Have a great weekend.

 

September 6th, 2013 Watch List

Abhacken

 

Despite the somewhat flat market yesterday, there were still some nice opportunities with SHLD continuing its ascent, JCP having a monster day, as well as SINA breaking out right at the open. Z and OPEN had a weak day but expect both of those to recover in short order. YELP was started at buy today and think that should help the online sector with stocks like Z and OPEN getting a bid. The same analyst who started YELP at buy started Z at hold with and an $81 pt. Barcalys also started Z at overweight with $115 tgt, so bodes will for a break above $100 again.

The Jobs report came in a bit weaker on the employed # but a bit better on the unemployment rate dropping to 7.3% from 7.4% mostly from folks leaving the workforce. GOLD spiked nearly $40 on the report as SEPT-TAPER looks to be OCT-taper. We shall see. Countries at the G20 are pretty much demanding the U.S. to hold back on the taper as it’s having a big impact on global markets. It will be interesting to see if these factors have any impact on the feds decision on Sept 18th.

 

The SPY is right near the 50dma @ 166.50 and would love to see a close above it going into the weekend.

 

Should be some fun lottos today but will be keeping it small, as I have too many positions at the moment.

 

Here are the analyst changes for today:

 

 

Z Zillow initiated with an Overweight at Barclays
Target $115

 

 

LOCK LifeLock shares still undervalued, says RBC Capital
After meeting with LifeLock's management, RBC Capital is more upbeat on the company's outlook. The firm thinks the company has several positive catalysts and reiterates an Outperform rating on the stock

 

 

EBAY eBay rating maintained as a Buy at RW Baird
Baird's Marketplace survey indicates eBay's U.S. transaction growth accelerated to 15% year-over-year vs low teens in July, adding visibility to Q3. The firm adds U.K. e-commerce August trends also improved and that the updated PayPal app is another step towards Mobile Wallet/In-Store payments. Shares are Buy rated with a $65 price target

 

 

TTWO , EA , ATVI Video game stocks look a bit frothy, says Brean Capital
Brean Capital is maintaining their positive stance on the gaming group but believes the stocks are beginning to look a bit frothy. The firm expects this console cycle to be kinder to third party publishers than last cycle but still expects pressure from prior generation obsolescence. Individually Brean Capital believes Electronic Arts (EA) is seeing pressure on current gen titles, Activision (ATVI) is seeing competition which makes them cautious, and with Take-Two (TTWO) they need to see sustainable earnings

 

 

YELP Yelp initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank
Target $81

 

 

Z Zillow initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank
Target $83

 

PAY VeriFone fundamentals continue to deteriorate, says Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank says VeriFone's fundamentals deteriorated further in Q3 and reiterates a Sell rating on the stock with a $13 price target. The firm says VeriFone reported double-digit negative organic growth in all divisions while it continues to lose market share to competitors

 

UA Under Armour initiated with a Hold at Jefferies
Target $71

 

FB Facebook price target raised to $55 from $40 at SunTrust
SunTrust raised Buy rated Facebook estimates to reflect expected product launches that include video ads, Instagram monetization, and graph search. The firm believes revenues could rise 10% by 2017 to approximately $2B

 

AAPL Larger Apple iPhone would boost China sales, says Cantor
After The Wall Street Journal reported that Apple is considering launching an iPhone with a significantly larger screen, Cantor believes that such a device would increase Apple's sales in China. The firm keeps a $777 price target and Buy rating on the stock

 

PVH PVH Corp. remains favorite large cap apparel name, says Brean Capital
Brean Capital said PVH Corp remains its favorite name in the large cap apparel segment and would be aggressive buyers into Q2 earnings. The firm believes there is material second half top and bottom line but expects management to remain on their conservative tack. Shares are Buy rated with a $150 price target

 

 

Love the SFLY upgrade today and will look for some calls. Also love SINA and Z here for continuation and will look for some more calls in both as well(still hold SINA weekly 85 calls and Sept 90 calls as well as Z 105/110/120 calls). For the first time in recent memory no weekly options expiring today will be on the watchlist!

 

Here are the strikes I am looking at:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
Z CALL $110.00 Next week 0.55 0.45
SINA CALL $90.00 Next Week 0.37 0.33
SFLY CALL $60.00 Sept 0.25 0.25
SFLY CALL $65.00 Oct 0.30 0.30

 

 

Good lottos to look at today maybe: GOOG 890s /AMZN 300 /NFLX 300 /SINA 85/PCLN 965

 

Lets have a great finish to the week!

 

- JB

An Earnings Trade Idea For Tonight That Could PAY Off In A Big Way

Earlier this quarter I highlighted many companies heading into earnings.  With each one I said the stock was going to decline post earnings.  $ARO $ANF $CSCO $CPB, the list goes on.   Here are those calls and videos:

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/anf-aro-back-to-the-future/

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/cpb-trade-idea-covered-sunday-night-in-the-live-week-ahead-webinar/

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/csco-earnings-video-tonights-earnings-report-will-make-or-break-the-stock-going-forward/

 

I see the same bearish scenario for a stock that is reporting earnings tonight.  This stock looks poised for another big sell off tonight, with the recent recovery in price nothing but a chance to short the stock at higher prices.

For $PAY, VeriFone Systems, Inc, the stock could see a 20% or better drop tonight, meaning the put buyers could see a sizeable profit.

The only caveat I have is that there was some strong buying on the call side.  As far as stock movement is concerned I side with an option trader over an equity trader.  However a large call purchase does not change the outlook for the stock.  It looks like it is heading down the abyss and tonights earnings report will be the trigger.

Two trade ideas:

 

September 18 puts at $.50

September 17 puts at $.30

 

 

pay1