Welcome to new all-time highs! I think I have said that quite a few times this past year, and would guess  we continue to see some more in the coming weeks/months. Larry Summers withdrawal for the nomination to replace Ben as Fed chair, reduces some uncertainty around how quickly the taper will occur. The market always likes some certainty, couple that with reduced Syria concerns and you have futures that ramped up over 1% and global markets in rally mode. Gold and Silver also rallied on the news but have since lost ground and look poised to go red.

There will be many stocks gapping so need to be wary about adding any positions at the open. I dont think we have a gap and trap, but I also dont think we will rally too much further today, so the risk to get in on a gap outweighs possible reward.

 

Here is the week ahead Webinar for those that missed it last night: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/forumdisplay.php/5-Week-Ahead-with-UPB

 

Love CBRL into earnings and will look to get a little more on the call side so I can lock some of the Oct 115s in. Also love OPEN on a break over $77.50 and will look to add to my call positions on that one.

SCTY is getting a nice bid pre-market with a nice write-up in the WSJ over the weekend on solar installations. LIke this one to continue to bounce and will try for some weeklies.

 

All eyes are on the FOMC meeting this week with the big announcement at 2pm followed by a press conference by Big Ben. Should be a fun day!

Here are some of the analyst changes for today:

 

 

UPS UPS upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays

Barclays upgraded UPS based on improving economic data and expanding growth

 

HAIN Hain Celestial price target raised to $91 from $74 at Jefferies

Jefferies raised its price target for Hain Celestial shares to $91 to reflect expectations for around 20% earnings growth in FY14. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the stock

 

INTU Intuit share repurchases likely more than guidance forecast, says Oppenheimer

After Intuit announced that it had paid $1.4B to an investment bank to enact its repurchase of shares by December 2013, Oppenheimer believes that the amount of share repurchases was greater than anticipated by the company's FY14 EPS guidance. The firm thinks the company's risk/reward profile is favorable ,and it reiterates an Outperform rating on the stock

 

VFC VF Corp. price target raised to $224 from $195 at JPMorgan

JPMorgan raised its price target for VF Corp. shares after meeting with management and keeps an Overweight rating on the name

 

MGM MGM Resorts price target raised to $25 from $20 at JPMorgan

JPMorgan raised its price target for MGM Resorts shares to $25 citing improving Las Vegas Strip trends and keeps an Overweight rating on the stock

 

WU Western Union upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Sterne Agee

Sterne Agee upgraded Western Union based on improving momentum and easier 2014 revenue and expense comps. Price target raised to $22

 

FB Facebook price target raised to $52 from $46 at Goldman

Goldman views video as a significant opportunity for Facebook and a compelling proposition for brand advertisers. The analyst reiterates its Buy and raised its price target to $52 in order to bring the multiple in-line with peers

 

UA Under Armour downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna

Susquehanna downgraded Under Armour based on valuation. Price target remains $77

 

 

 

Here are the strikes I am looking at for the open:

 

 

Stock Ticker	Call/Put	Strike	Expiration	Closing Price	Entry Price
CBRL	CALL	$120.00	OCT	.10 x .50	0.30
SCTY	CALL	$46.50	Weekly	0.50	0.50

 

 

Will keep it small today most likely.

Lets have a great day!!

 

- JB

 

With one day left in this second week of September the SPY is up 1.75% so far and looks poised to stay in the green with futures slightly higher this morning. The 7 day winning streak did end, but a breather before hitting new all time highs is a good thing.

The Big news yesterday was the Tweet from Twitter that it is filing it’s S-1 and will have an IPO somewhere around November. We also had weekly jobless claim numbers that fell the most since 2006, although that number seems to be skewed by some faulty reporting.

The FOMC meeting will continue to steal the headlines, and next wednesday should be an extremely exciting day. I still think Big Ben wants to ensure his term as Fed Chair goes unblemished and the remarks he makes along with the policy changes, work to keep the market near it’s lofty heights...at least until he leaves in January.

 

Gold continues to slid and GS is out with Gold moving to $1000 possibly : http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-13/goldman-sees-risk-of-gold-below-1-000-as-u-s-economy-gains-1-.html

 

Will be doing the Week Ahead Webinar Sunday night at 10:30, and will be recorded and in the forum before the open on Monday:

 

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/live-event-classes-jtv/

 

Here are some of the analyst changes for today:

 

 

ULTA Ulta Salon price target raised to $125 from $104 at Sterne Agee

Sterne Agee increased its price target on Ulta Salon after the company reported stronger than expected Q2 results. The firm has increased confidence in the outlook for the company's growth and it thinks Ulta's new CEO is improving the company. Sterne keeps a Buy rating on the shares

 

 

V  &  MA  Visa outlook more positive after MasterCard Investor Day, says Stifel

Stifel is more upbeat on both Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA) after MasterCard reported that spending growth was accelerating. The firm found MasterCard's commentary on Durbin encouraging. Stifel prefers Visa over MasterCard because Visa is trading at a significant discount to MasterCard. It keeps a Buy rating on Visa, and identifies the stock as a top pick

 

UA Under Armour downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse downgraded Under Armour citing valuation. Correct price target raised to $73 from $69

 

DIS Disney added to Select List at Stifel

Stifel raised its estimates on Disney based on an acceleration in the company's share buyback plan and higher than expected sales of the company's Infinity video game. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the stock

 

SINA SINA price target raised to $92 from $67 at BofA/Merrill

BofA/Merrill said SINA provided the revenue impact from its cooperation with Alibaba for the first time following Alibaba's $586M stake in Weibo. Weibo expects +$50M in Q3 2013 ad sales vs. $20M in Q3 2012. The firm raised Weibo sales estimates to $195M from $145M and 2014 to $389M from $312M. The analyst raised its price target on SINA to $92 to reflect ad sale visibility and smaller Weibo losses. Shares are Buy rated

 

PNRA Panera Bread shares have reached attractive entry point, says Oppenheimer

Noting that Panera's stock has fallen 12% since early July, Oppenheimer thinks the stock's risk/reward is compelling heading into 2014. The firm believes that the company's comp growth could accelerate and it keeps an Outperform rating on the share

 

REGN Regeneron price target raised to $325 from $298 at Lazard Capital

Lazard Capital raised its price target for Regeneron after its analysis of Th2-mediated eosinophilic disorders indicated another blockbuster franchise for the company. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the stock

 

LULU Lululemon upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse upgraded lululemon following strong Q2 results and expects revenue growth to normalize as inventory flow issues moderate. Price target remains $78

 

Apple price target lowered to $425 from $450 at Jefferies

Jefferies cut its price target for Apple shares by $25 to $450 after lowering its FY14 earnings estimate for the company to $37.95 from $38.78, well below the consensus estimate of $42.66. Jefferies said its channel checks indicate that second half of 2013 iPhone build plans are being cut due to "terrible" fingerprint sensor yields. The firm adds that that the iPhone 5c is being priced like Apple's prior generation handsets rather than to a new lower level. Jefferies believes Apple is taking the "higher price/lower market share option" for both its new iPhones and reiterates a Hold rating on the stock. Shares of Apple closed yesterday up 1% to $472.69

 

ULTA Ulta Salon price target raised to $130 from $110 at RW Baird

Baird raised its price target on Ulta Salon following strong Q2 results. The firm cited an attractive industry backdrop, its winning concept, unit growth potential, and internal improvement initiatives. Shares are Outperform rated

 

MAKO Surgical should benefit from new product, says Wells Fargo

After meeting with MAKO's CEO, Wells Fargo reports that the launch of the company's hip v2.1 product is progressing well, and the firm expects the product to drive an increase in hip procedures. Wells also reports that MAKO has not seen a negative impact from Intuitive Surgical's (ISRG) difficulties or a change in the hospital capital spending environment. The firm thinks the company can meet its 2013 guidance and maintains an Outperform rating on the shares

 

WEN Wendy's upgraded to Hold from Underweight at KeyBanc

KeyBanc upgraded Wendy's based on better menu and promotional management, expectations for improved SRS performance, and increased re-franchising opportunities

 

 

 

Hope we can close the week out at $169.50 or so on the SPY. Will be looking for some lotto friday plays but not many. If you did not see yesterday, I added some CBRL OCT $115 calls as I love the company and they report earnings on the 18th. Think we can see a nice ramp into that report.

 

Here are the strikes I am watching for the open:

 

 

Stock Ticker	Call/Put	Strike	Expiration	Closing Price	Entry Price
SINA	CALL	$90.00	Weekly	0.12	0.10
Z	CALL	$100.00	Weekly	0.40	0.25
GOOG	CALL	$895.00	Weekly	2.20	0.35

 

 

 

Think SINA may get a bump today on twitter news and PT upgrade, will watch for strength then look to add. Z and GOOG are complete lotto expiration plays and will watch both for signs of strength as well.

 

Lets end the week in style and hope to see you sunday night!

 

- JB

 

The SPY fought back from early losses to finish green for a 7th straight day as the index closed above $169 and is very close to breaking all-time highs once again. Who would have thought we would come back so far so fast with all the supposed “headwinds”.

Of course no market rally would be complete without the incessant bantering about the impending collapse of equities amongst all the possible negative catalysts coming our way. Just check marketwatch to confirm that this market is far from done hitting highs this year (Big Headline “PERFECT STORM FOR MARKET” = JOKE: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-perfect-storm-2013-09-11?dist=beforebell

 

Futures have treaded narrowly in the red overnight and this morning while commodities continue to get punished and gold looks set for another large down day. I refuse to chase the move in gold right now with so many other opportunities in the market.

 

Tons of analyst changes this morning to include a NFLX downgrade and a NFLX Upgrade. PCLN upgrade and PCLN nuetral. MA upgrade, another FB upgrade, and a neutral call on LNKD by C.

 

Have quite a few positions still and will look to keep it small. Big loser yesterday was playing the RH bounce which didnt materialize. Still like it and will look for an oppty if I see it getting a bid. GOOG looks pretty good here too, and did grab some 910/915 calls for a possible break above 900. LULU reported some nice earnings but weak guidance, and with stocks like that, guidance is the key.

 

The weekly jobless claim numbers came in at the lowest level since 2006, countering the weak August employment numbers and the previous months downward revisions. Futures remain flat after that number but Gold has added to it’s decline as the PPI index for August came in unchanged, folks were expecting .20% increase.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes of note for today:

 

 

 

LULU Lululemon shares weak on elevated expectations, says Citigroup

Citigroup attributes the post-earnings pullback in shares of lululemon to elevated expectations surrounding the company's outlook. Citi says it still likes the stock as a longer-term idea and reiterates a Buy rating on the stock

 

 

QCOM Qualcomm shareholder friendliness could be a catalyst, says Susquehanna

Susquehanna believes any shareholder friendly actions by Qualcomm at the November analyst day will be a catalyst for the stock. The firm said yesterday's stock buyback signals a shift to a more flexible approach regarding cash return to shareholders which should benefit Qualcomm's multiple. Shares are Positive rated with a $85 price target

 

 

HPQ HP estimates and price target reduced at UBS

UBS lowered its FY14 EPS estimate to $3.55 from $3.80 ahead of the October 9 analyst meeting on expectations Q3 will impact guidance. The analyst expects Meg Whitman to lower the bar and notes she has backed off on prospects for revenue growth in FY14. The firm expects buybacks to increase substantially and to boost the dividend by 10%. Shares are Neutral rated with a $24 price target, down from $26

 

FB Facebook price target raised to $60 from $42 at CLSA

 

PCLN priceline.com initiated with a Neutral at Janney Capital

Target $925

 

 

NFLX Netflix price target raised to $350 from $325 at Lazard Capital

Lazard Capital upped its price target for Netflix shares by $25 to $350 after meeting with management and keeps a Buy rating on the stock. The firm believes growth in Netflix's originals is a sign of consumer traction

 

 

PCLN Priceline.com demand trends looking healthy, says Cantor

Cantor's analysis of worldwide search trends suggests that priceline's Booking.com continues to perform well globally. The firm reports that pricing trends for Booking.com are largely in-line with expectations, and it keeps a $1,050 price target and Buy rating on priceline.com

 

 

MA MasterCard price target raised to $690 from $640 at FBR Capital

FBR Capital raised its price target for MasterCard to $690 citing increased FY14 earnings estimates and higher confidence in the company's ability to achieve targeted earnings growth following its investor day. The firm reiterates an Outperform rating on the stock

 

 

 

 

I continue to love the SINA story and will look to add more OTM Oct calls today. Some more news this morning on partnerships :http://www.marbridgeconsulting.com/marbridgedaily/2013-09-12/article/69145/sina_microblog_etao_partner_on_price_drop_alerts

 

Z looks clear for breakout after closing above $100. Said it needed to do that to remain bullish and it did, just a day late. Could really get going on $103 break. CMG, SINA, BIDU, and WYNN all broke 52 week highs yesterday and all are below all time highs set years ago. Think all 4 get above those points at sometime in the next few weeks.

 

Here are the strikes I am looking at for the open, and again will keep it small today:

 

 

Stock Ticker	Call/Put	Strike	Expiration	Closing Price	Entry Price
SINA	CALL	$110.00	OCT	0.59	0.59
Z	CALL	$105.00	Weekly	0.30	0.30

 

 

 

Sold 103 Z calls yesterday but will look to get back in the lower strike if it gets a bid at the open.

Lets have a great day!

 

- JB