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3-27-13 Watchlist

Yesterdays watchlist included NFLX $190 calls which soared from an open of $.50 to a high of over $4.00. EBAY and BIDU were also on the watchlist and I feel confident about both heading into the holiday shortened end of the trading week although both look to open modestly lower this morning.

Futures are falling down over .5% as Cyrpus still remains a talking point, with some thinking that Cyrpus will be a template for the rest of the Eurozone. The Euro has dropped to fresh lows against the Dollar, the dollar gaining .5% against other major currencies this morning. The volatility index should see a spike at the open as well. It looks like we might have to wait another few days before pushing through all time highs on the S&P 500.

The $SPY closed a mere $.50 from multi-year highs yesterday with the DJIA rallying over 110 points. As I have been saying for many moons, every dip since the March 2009 lows has been a tremendous chance to buy stocks = BTFD. That hasn't changed and today's drop out of the gates will likely be just another BTFD moment. However there will remain stocks that will struggle today. I think $JPM is one of them, as some negative news is circulating about the company and its handling of Bernie Madoff as well as the "London Whale" losses. $JCP may see continued selling as it is being reported they are raising prices and mall owners are bracing for store closing. $AAPL more negative analyst remarks already this morning, with the negative overall sentiment, this will likely weigh on shares early on.

$GOOG has seen both negative and positive treatment this morning with one analyst lowering their earnings estimates and another raising their price tgt to just under $1,000. We've seen this a lot recently, and it shows just how convoluted this market is. No one seems to have a grasp on the market or individual stocks and going with your own intuition is usually the best move. Just look at $AAPL's recent move off its lows. Had you listened to all the recent negative analyst remarks you would be trading for the stock to mvoe to $370, however its done exactly the opposite. As I noted yesterday $GOOG hit major trendline support last week at $800 and I think the stock could have room to go higher. Currently it has been stuck in a tight range making OTM option purchases on either side not very profitable. Those selling options, however, are making a killing. At this stage, in spite of today's tgt raise I think $GOOG should be avoided for OTM calls/puts until we see something that will spark shares in either direction.

I think the next two trading days will show only modest moves in either direction and odds are we will close the week roughly were we started it. Keeping that in mind it, if we do end the week basically flat, this will be a premium kill on most out of the money options. So try and trade smart, we have earnings season kicking off soon and patience will likely be rewarded then.

Some important upgrades/downgrades/news:

Google price target raised to $982 from $847 at Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse believes Google's Enhanced Campaigns update will provide an incentive for publishers to optimize their websites for cross hardware/OS access, likely resulting in increased advertising budgets. The firm rates shares an Outperform.

Google search engine revenue reportedly fell in Q1, says Stifel
Stifel says that IgnitionOne, a large search engine marketer, estimates that spending on Google's search engine dropped 1% year-over-year in Q1. Stifel reduced its estimates for Google and expects Google to report weaker than expected Q1 results. The firm maintains a Hold rating.


Apple could miss Q2, Q3 consensus estimates, says Pacific Crest
Pacific Crest believes that Apple could report weaker than expected Q2 and Q3 results due to lower iPad and iPhone sales. The firm lowered its large format iPad unit estimates and has a $425-$520 price target on the shares. It thinks that the company's growth prospects are modest, and maintains a Sector Perform rating on the shares.

Target price target raised to $75 from $69 at Morgan Stanley
Yesterday, Target's Tony Fisher reaffirmed that the roll out in Canada is on track to hit 124 stores in its first year. The firm raised estimates and expects Canada store openings to move shares higher near-term. Shares are Overweight rated.

Intel shares could benefit from a capex cut, says Goldman
Goldman said a potential reduction in Intel's 2013 capex budget would likely be viewed as a positive for shares as it would address excess supply and improve cash flow. Shares are Sell rated with a $16 price target.

JPMorgan facing multiple federal investigations, NY Times reports
Prosecutors are examining whether JPMorgan (JPM) withheld information about Bernie Madoff, and the bank is facing a criminal probe over whether it lied to investors and regulators about its multibillion dollar trading loss, according to The New York Times, which cited unnamed sources. Meanwhile, at least two JPMorgan board members are worried about the bank's "mounting problems" as at least eight federal agencies probe the company, the newspaper stated.

VMW VMware upgraded to Strong Buy from Buy at ISI Group

What I am looking to buy today:

The Pac Crest upgrade of NFLX to $220 moved the stock over 6%. We saw a similar multi-day move with VMW after they said to buy the stock aggressively. We are still waiting for $FFIV as Pac Crest said to buy them aggressively over a week ago. I think $FFIV, while not working out last week via the call side, will work out handsomely in the future and I will be looking for OTM calls expiring in April.

$FFIV April $92.50 calls $.90

I think once the dust settles on Cyprus stocks will hit new highs and the VIX will fall. This will happen before the end of next week. I will trade this via VXX puts.

$VXX April $20 puts $.60 limit

$FB has been hanging tough at $25 support after falling most of March. I will be looking for next week's call options and for the stock to bounce off the $25 mark. A break below and I will close out my calls.

$FB April weekly $25 calls $.50

Have a great trading day. This is a holiday week for most and we are winding down one the of the best quarters ever. I'm not expecting any big swings and think we are gearing up for a strong rally to new highs over the next few weeks.

3-26-13 Watchlist

Stocks fell yesterday as Cyprus reached a last minute deal to avert disaster. Haven't we heard this story before? Bailouts, disaster, market turmoil, Eurozone exit, fiscal cliff, the sequester, the list grows each year, and yet here we sit only points away from an all time high on the S&P 500. The bears have been calling for a collapse each step along the way... how has that worked out for them so far? I've been saying it for many moons now, don't fight the trend, and stated well over a year ago that we'd break through to all time highs. We have already hit new all time highs for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and small cap stocks, next up is the S&P500. It is coming and with the bears salivating after the recent dip, I am that much more confident it is coming soon. BTFD, QE, sell the VIX, we trade in a market that is being manipulated. Central banks that have one purpose and an unlimited credit card. Fight them at your own peril. I think we can all agree that the longer term picture is not bright, and there will be a time to be playing for downside. Declines are buying opportunities. Dips are to be bought, its worked since the 2009 lows and until it stops working that is the way to trade this market.

REMINDER: This is a holiday shortened week with only three trading days left. I would be surprised to see a big move in either direction this week and remain cautious toward opening many short term option positions.

Some upgrades/downgrades/rumors/comments today:

Netflix price target raised to $225 from $160 at Pacific Crest
Pacific Crest raised its price target for Netflix citing increased margin and subscriber assumptions. The firm expects Netflix's information advantage and content spending to drive subscriber growth and recommends owning the stock with an Outperform rating.

Apple likely to be hurt in near-term by refresh rumors, says Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer believes that consumers will likely hold off buying new iPhones and iPads due to rumors about the launch of new devices this summer. The firm believes that Apple may miss consensus estimates for its March and June quarters, and it expects the stock to remain range bound over the near-term. But Oppenheimer remains upbeat about the company's long-term outlook and keeps an Outperform rating on the stock.

Apple June guidance likely to miss consensus, says Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray believes the risk/reward to owning Apple shares is favorable, but thinks the consensus estimates are too high for the March and June quarters. Piper expects Apple to report March quarter results within the company's guidance, but below consensus, while issuing an outlook for the June quarter below expectations. Nonetheless, Piper thinks product announcements should reaccelerate Apple’s earnings growth from a negative 14% in the first half of 2013 to a positive 15% in the back half. The firm reiterates an Overweight rating on Apple shares with a $767 price target.

Caterpillar price target lowered to $109 from $118 at Susquehanna
Susquehanna lowered its price target on Caterpillar to reflect lowered estimates from its Resource Industries company. The firm expects shares to be range bound in the near-term until confidence improves on a bottoming of capital expenditures of mining. Shares are Positive rated.

S&P 500 price target raised to 1760 from 1650 at Canaccord
Canaccord raised its 2013 S&P 500 target to 1760 from 1650 due to reduced signs of systemic risk, better than expected economic and earnings trends, and reduced valuation constraints. The firm now continues to expect 2013 operating earnings of $110 and raised its multiple to 16x from 15x.

TripAdvisor price target raised to $58 from $50 at Stifel
Stifel believes that TripAdvisor has a massive traffic advantage and provides unique utility to travel planners, while the company has opportunities in reviews, data collection and marketing. The firm maintains a Buy rating on the stock.

Electronic Arts upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray upgraded Electronic Arts citing the company's CEO transition and margin expansion opportunities. The firm raised its price target for shares to $23 from $20. :thefly

eBay shares should keep working in intermediate term, says Cantor
Cantor believes that sustained growth of Marketplaces and traction with PayPal should enable eBay's stock to perform well over the intermediate term. The firm maintains a $56 price target and Buy rating on the shares.

I remain a buyer of BIDU calls and think the stock will break over $90 in the short term. I like AAPL to trade over $500 soon and continue to defy all the analysts who continue to speak negatively of the stock. I was waiting for a bounce for $HLF before trading the puts. It was a great profit the last time to the downside. I may have missed my chance but will watch for reentry. EBAY should get a decent bounce into the end of the week.

Possible trades I will make for today:

EBAY $52.50 weekly calls last price $.57 looking for entry $.50
BIDU $87.50 and $90 weekly calls $.26 and $.05
NFLX $190 weekly calls $.45

3-20-2013 Watchlist


The BEARS came out of their caves yesterday to shake the tree, as the ISLAND (Cyprus), continued to give folks a reason to take profits. The market did ramp at the end of the day, and the DOW was able to close green. Right now futures are up nearly .50%, and there are now  rumors of the Russians working out a deal to help Cyprus. We do have the Fed announcement at 2pm, that may move markets. The FED already has their cards on the table, so would think the announcement maybe a somewhat non-event, but you never know.

FEDEX reported some cruddy numbers this morning, and is down a few bucks pre-market. ADBE beat estimates last night, and is rallying pre-market.

We have earnings from Oracle and JBL after hours. Will be watching both but will probably just play JBL calls.


Here are the analyst changes today:


AAPL Apple price target lowered to $600 from $650 at Canaccord

Canaccord lowered Apple's price target to $600 from $650 to reflect an iPhone 5S refresh this summer or during Q3 vs. previous expectations for a launch in June. The firm believes Apple could lose smartphone share in 1H 2013 due to recently launched high-end Android smartphones and has reduced its Q3 estimates. The firm believes earnings will accelerate in the September quarter and maintains its Buy rating

CRM initiated with an Outperform at FBN Securities

Target $210.

VMW VMware initiated with an Outperform at FBN Securities

Target $86.

RAX Rackspace initiated with a Sector Perform at FBN Securities

Target $55.

BBRY BlackBerry upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley upgraded BlackBerry two notches to Overweight from Underweight based on expanding gross margin and ASP expectations driven by the mix-shift to BB10 devices from BB6 and BB7 devices. The firm now believes there may be room for niche mid-range companies in the handset market and notes LG and Samsung may be seeking alternate OS strategies. Price target raised to $22 from $10

DE Deere downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo downgraded Deere to Underperform citing its bearish outlook for 2014 and 2015 U.S. large farm equipment demand and anticipated commodity price declines. The firm lowered its price target range for shares to $72-$75 from $90-$93


Still love $SAM and it broke out of it’s triple top yesterday. I think the stock goes $170+ in short order now. Tons of folks calling for a pullback on that one since $140, and they continue to pop in calling for a short, confirming my bullish stance. I currently have 170/180 April calls and may add some more 180s today. I still have FFIV, AAPL, CRM, ISRG, and NFLX calls.


Our FFIV 92.50 weekly calls trade was alerted via text yesterday. I will hold my calls until it breaks $92+, then lock some in for a double. Will be watching for $88 level to exit position.


Only looking to get some JBL calls and possibly some WYNN calls if it show signs of breaking $122 today:



Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
JBL CALL $20.00 April 0.45 0.45
WYNN CALL $125.00 Weekly 0.10 0.10



Happy trading folks!


- JB

2-8-2013 Watchlist



Today brings and end to the first possible red week in 2013. Yesterday was another classic buy the dip, as the market rallied once again from an early sell-off to close almost green.

AAPL spiked at the end of the day as it sounds like they are possibly working on returning some more value to shareholders via dividends/buybacks.. ect. CSTR lowered guidance and the stock is off $4 pre-market. LNKD beat big on rev and EPS and numbers exceeded already lofty expectations. The stock is up 11% PM and has numerous upgrades all $150 and above. OPEN also reported some nice numbers after the close, so maybe one to watch at the open as it’s a quiet PM trader.


China Export/Import #s were up much more then expected, and should help the continued case around China’s economy moving back in the right direction. US export numbers also out this morning that were way above expectations, which is a very good sign even with a solid USD.


Below are some of the analyst changes :



LinkedIn price target raised to $163 from $142 at JPMorgan

JPMorgan says LinkedIn reported strong Q4 results and issued a solid outlook for 2013. The firm believes the company is operating extremely well and raised its price target for shares to $163 while reiterating an Overweight rating on the stock.

LinkedIn price target raised to $150 from $130 at BofA/Merrill

Shares are Buy rated.

LinkedIn price target raised to $150 from $135 at Citigroup

Citigroup says LinkedIn's fundamentals remain impressive following the company's better than expected Q4 results. The firm upped its price target for shares to $150 and reiterates a Buy rating on the stock.


LinkedIn upgraded to Buy from Outperform at CLSA

CLSA upgraded Linkedin given the strong quarter, improving operating leverage, and EBITDA margin expansion. Price target raised to $161 from $131.

LinkedIn price target raised to $176 from $150 at Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray raised its price target for LinkedIn following the company's Q4 results and keeps an Overweight rating on the stock. Piper thinks LinkedIn remains in the early stages of monetizing its professional network asset and says the company can continue to grow in the mid-double digit range for at least the next three years.

Google added to Best Ideas List at Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley added Google to its Best Idea List given increasing free cash flow, consistent execution, and innovation opportunities. Shares are Overweight rated with a $932 price target.


Here are the strikes i am looking at today:



Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration
LNKD CALL $145.00 Weekly
GOOG CALL $790.00 Weekly
NFLX CALL $185.00 Weekly
AAPL CALL $480.00 Weekly




GOOG was put on Morgan Stanleys best idea list with $923 TGT so may move nice at the open. Will be looking for 785/790 weekly lotto calls. Will also be watching LNKD and may try some lotto 140/145 weeklies if it holds the morning fade.

AAPL may show continued strength so may try for 480s as well as trying to time NFLX if it shows support.


Lets end the week in style. We will be having our week ahead Sunday 10:30pm eastern so be ready for that. And for those in the track of the storm like myself, be safe and smart!


Happy Trading!


- Jimmybob

2-7-2013 Watchlist



It was a buy the f&^&^ dip yesterday, right down to the closing bell as the market squeezed out a gain, after being down .5%+ early in the morning. The higher we go, the more folks will be calling a top. Time will tell, but i still think we are a few months off from that. The  Bank of England Governor in waiting was doing some testimony today that helped prop the pound and boost futures. There are also notes and comments out from the ECB so may move markets a little. Same store sales numbers come out for january on retailers, so keep an eye on Macy's, JCP, Kohls, and others. Once again, I think the path of least resistance is up, and the VIX will be under $10 very soon.


We have earnings tonight with LNKD and CSTR being the headliners. Those will be the ones on the watchlist. DDD was great yesterday and looks good this morning making up for the PCLN and GMCR calls.


Here are some analyst changes this morning:


Green Mountain margins offset slower sales growth, says Lazard Capital

Lazard Capital says Green Mountain's better than expected margins in Q1 more than offset the company's slightly lower sales growth. The firm raised its price target for shares to $58 from $56 and keeps a Buy rating on the stock


Yelp price target raised to $27 from $24 at Cantor

Cantor increased its price target on Yelp after the company reported Q4 results that the firm views as strong. The firm sees several upcoming positive catalysts for the stock and maintains a Buy rating.


Goldman Sachs well-positioned, says Bernstein

After meeting with Goldman Sachs' CFO, Bernstein reports that the CFO is "cautiously optimistic about the 2013 operating environment." Bernstein is more optimistic about Goldman's outlook, as the firm thinks that the company is leveraged to an early stage rebound. Bernstein maintains a $170 price target and Outperform rating on the stock.


Visa downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo downgraded Visa citing valuation following the company's Q1 results. The firm raised its price target range for shares to $160-$165 from $150-$155.


BlackBerry upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo upgraded BlackBerry after transferring analyst coverage on expectations the company's gross margin will improve as BB10 device sales ramp. Wells says BlackBerry shares have generally trended in the direction of gross margin. The firm raised its price target range for shares to $19-$20 from $11-$13.


I plan on looking for some FEB 16th calls for LNKD as well as some FEB 16th from CSTR. I may play NFLX calls as well betting on a move higher if CSTR smashes.



Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
LNKD CALL $150.00 FEB 16th 0.28 0.25
LNKD CALL $155.00 FEB 16th 0.14 0.10
CSTR CALL $62.50 Feb 16th 0.45 0.40



Lets have a great day!!


- Jimmybob