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4-12-2013 Watch List


Another great day with some awesome calls in chat by quite a few folks. BBBY had a great fade at the open, which had UPB screaming like his favorite Football won the Super Bowl. PCLN continued it’s ascent and added another $17 yesterday, making the $730 calls worth over $6.00 from .48 on Wednesday. SODA exploded and hit 55.60, with the 55 calls we alerted via text two weeks ago hitting $1.30+ from .30 entry. SFLY also broke over $45 and our Monday alert of the $45 calls at .30 hit over .90. CMG shares were weak all morning and then pulled back even further as it was a short idea by a fund manager. CMG moved from $318 last week, to $350 this week so it was an easy target for folks to come in and cause a sell-off. Could see some continued selling if it breaks under $330 and I did grab some $325 puts @ .35 as a hedge vs my calls. Second time I have bought puts in 2 weeks, a record for me over the past few months!

Futures are down around .50% on some weaker March retail sales numbers and a pullback in the global markets.

Gold and Silver are down today, with Gold losing nearly 2% or $30. I expect this trend to continue over the next few months as Gold heads towards $1300 and below.


Here are some of the analyst changes today:


NFLX Netflix is a top pick into the quarter, says Barclays

Netflix is one of Barclays' U.S. Internet top picks into the quarter as it sees upside to Q1 results driven by House of Cards and views Q2 expectations as reasonable. The firm rates shares an Equal Weight and raised its price target to $190 from $120.

PIR Pier 1 Imports guidance conservative, says Wells Fargo

After Pier 1 reported in-line Q4 results and provided lower than expected FY14 EPS guidance, Wells Fargo doesn't believe that the company has factored in the positive impact on sales of the company's e-commerce and SG&A investments. The firm keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.

GOOG Google ad spend looks to be in line for the quarter, says Goldman

Goldman's checks indicate Google's ad spend is roughly in-line for the quarter and is forecasting standalone revenue of $13.29B vs. consensus of $12.95B. The analyst continues to expect margins to be pressured by increasing percentage of mobile queries combined with smartphone and tablet offerings. Shares are Neutral rated with a $760 price target.

MON Monsanto checks show tight glyphosate market, says Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray said its channel checks indicate the supply/demand dynamics for glyphosate herbicide remain very tight. The firm views the checks as incremental positives for Monsanto and reiterates an Overweight rating on the stock with a $133 price target.

CERN Cerner price target raised to $110 from $97 at Jefferies

Jefferies believes Cerner's investments are driving competitive inroads and raised its price target for shares while keeping a Buy rating on the stock.

MA MasterCard downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee

Sterne Agee downgraded MasterCard citing valuation and lack of momentum

LNKD LinkedIn acquisition of Pulse makes strategic sense, says Wunderlich

Wunderlich believes LinkedIn's acquisition of Pulse makes great strategic sense as it will accelerate the company's efforts to become a large publishing platform and expand the capabilities of its mobile applications. The firm reiterates a Buy rating on LinkedIn shares with a $195 price target.

KORS Michael Kors initiated with an Underperform at CLSA

CLSA believes Michael Kors shares are priced for perfection and for the company to approach saturation in North America over the next four years. Price target is $60

MSFT Microsoft downgraded to Outperform from Buy at CLSA

CLSA downgraded Microsoft due to a continued deterioration in the PC market and recent share strength. Price target lowered to $34 from $36. Note that shares were downgraded at three firms yesterday.

YHOO Yahoo price target raised to $26 from $22 at JPMorgan

JPMorgan raised its price target for Yahoo citing improving engagement trends and a higher implied valuation for Alibaba Group. However, the firm keeps a Neutral rating on the stock pending greater improvement in Yahoo's core business


Will be placing some small lotto trades on weeklies expiring today. May possibly look to grab some lotto CMG $320 puts if it shows some weakness at the open. Will be watching PCLN and GOOG as well. Have calls already but may look for more.

Here are the strikes I am looking at:


Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
CMG PUTS $320.00 weekly 0.20 0.15
GOOG CALL $795.00 weekly 0.95 0.50
WYNN CALL $135.00 April 0.14 0.14
PCLN CALL $745.00 weekly 1.15 0.50



Some of those expire today so very risky. Lets have a great end to the trading week!


- JB

Morning Watch List and Q & A with JB – 7:45am Tues 4-16


With all the fun action in the market recently, figured I would do a quick Q and A and show folks how i come up with my Watch List. This will be for Silver and above, and will only do it if we get at least 30 folks registered(shouldnt be a problem).


Go here to register :

See you then!!


- JB

4-11-2013 Watch List



What a rally yesterday as the market ramped all day and closed at all-time highs. Simply amazing! I said it on the audio in chat yesterday, but felt like yesterday was the day all the bears started to throw in the towel, and those on the sidelines finally gave up watching and waiting and said GET ME IN! Jobless claims  fell 42k last week which was more then expected, easing some concerns of the data last week.


BBBY reported earnings yesterday and the stock is up a few % this morning. Numbers were decent and I think the stock moves a bit higher here, but may struggled to break $70. NFLX price target was raised by GS this morning but rating remained neutral. The stock is moving up PM on that news and could go one 170.50 break. AAPL is slightly red and GOOG is gapping so maybe another nice day for both.


After watching PCLN break over 700 in the morning yesterday, told myself I would be a buyer over $710. It broke and I bought the 730 calls. Will look for continuation today. Also still have CMG calls that have been up huge this week. SFLY and SODA, two text alerts this month are finally doing well. The SFLY calls hit .75 yesterday from .30 entry. The SODA 55 Calls closed at .30, which is the entry price. Hoping for more big days from those two.


A boring morning with analyst changes, here are the ones of note:



Goldman Sachs maintains Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) with a Neutral and raises the price target from $125.00 to $184.00.

AAP Advance Auto Parts a top value idea, says RW Baird

Baird remains confident in the long term strategy of Advance Auto Parts and calls its a top value idea. The firm cited the company's reiteration of its financial guidance, its commitment to the commercial sector, and the potential form improved margins. Shares are Outperform rated with a $90 price target.

CPN Calpine remains a top pick following analyst day at Morgan Stanley

Following Calpine's investor day, Morgan Stanley continues to believe its cash and cash flow returns are underappreciated by investors. The firm believes Street estimates are too low and do not reflect forward power prices. Shares are Outperform rated.


BYD Boyd Gaming upgraded at Morgan Stanley

As previously reported, Morgan Stanley upgraded Boyd Gaming to Overweight from Equal Weight. The firm believes online gaming will drive Boyd shares higher and expects new states to join New Jersey and Nevada for online tax dollars. Price target is $12.


TOL Toll Brothers upgraded to Neutral from Negative at Susquehanna

As previously reported, Susquehanna upgraded Toll Brothers due to valuation. The firm upgraded shares due to increasing land prices and relative underperformance. Price target raised to $33 from $25.

ABX Barrick Gold downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Securities

TD Securities downgraded Barrick Gold after the company announced that it is suspending construction work on the Chilean side of the Pascua-Lama project while working to address environmental and other regulatory requirements.

FSLR First Solar price target raised to $30 from $17 at RBC Capital

RBC Capital increased its target on First Solar after the company provided stronger than expected 2013 guidance. The firm views the company's 2014 and 2015 guidance as encouraging but maintains a Sector Perform rating on the shares.


Holding quite a few positions already so the watchlist is small today. Will look to add more PCLN if it looks good at the open. Also like GOOG for continuation of the bounce and may try for 805s.



Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
PCLN CALL $740.00 Weely 0.52 0.50
PCLN CALL $745.00 Weely 0.30 0.30
GOOG CALL $805.00 Weekly 0.46 0.45



Lets have a great day folks! Sometime years from now you will all remember where you were when the market hit all-time highs! (LOL)


- JB

4-10-2013 Watch List


Another green day for Markets yesterday, although they pulled off their highs near the end of the day. Right now futures are higher and we are looking to open above all-time highs on the SPY. China data out last night shows a trade deficit for China for the first time in recent memory, meaning China is importing more then it is exporting... a very good sign and could signal better demand in the country going forward. Whether the cheaper Yen has had that much effect or not is yet to be seen.

Seems the story at the end of last year and start of this year was US economy and Eurozone. Now it seems Japan and China will fuel the next leg of this rally. Still love the SPY until the VIX breaks under $10, then I will start to look at possible pullbacks.

Silver, Gold, and Miners took off yesterday, but I think that is one last gasp before they continue to fall. SLV under 25 is a good play and will look for entry soon.


FSLR had an amazing day yesterday, and those in chat were shown the mistake of the month my myself (JB) as I sold FSLR 29.50 calls bought Monday at .26 for .35 yesterday morning. So the 30 contracts I sold for $1050 went for $30k+ a few hours later. Live and learn and just goes to show that you need to stick with your trading plan(which 99% of the time I do!)


Here are some of the analyst changes today:



AGU Agrium downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray downgraded Agrium citing a lack of catalysts following yesterday's proxy vote results. Piper believes the ongoing proxy battle with Jana could weigh on Agrium's valuation and lowered its price target for shares to $105 from $133.



FSLR First Solar guidance encouraging, but questions remain, says Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank says that while First Solar's above-consensus guidance was encouraging, shares will remain in a trading range pending further evidence of accelerating organic pipeline growth. The firm raised its price target for shares to $34 from $27 and keeps a Hold rating on the stock.

FSLR First Solar rally on guidance looks overdone, says Jefferies

Jefferies says First Solar's above-consensus guidance is largely the result of a revenue pull-in from 2015 due to an accounting change. As such, the firm believes the 45% rally in shares yesterday seems overdone and keeps a Hold rating on the stock. Jefferies thinks First Solar's outlook has not changed radically, but remains positive on the company's long-term positioning

FSLR First Solar rally leaves little room for upside, says Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray raised its price target for First Solar shares to $40 from $28 following the company's better than expected 2013 guidance, but keeps a Neutral rating on the stock. Piper believes yesterday's rally leaves little room for further share upside.

SRPT Sarepta drug still looks best in class, says William Blair

William Blair believes an abstract highlighting Phase II data for GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and Prosensa's drisapersen indicates that Sarepta's (SRPT) eteplirsen remains the best-in-class therapy for the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy. The firm keeps an Outperform rating on shares of Sarepta with a $52 price target. Note shares of Sarepta rallied 11% to $39.85 late yesterday after the abstract was posted.

(IBM IBM upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS

UBS believes IBM is well positioned to be a force as a service provider to private cloud and converged infrastructure and that its hosting capability and support of OpenStack will benefit it in the future. Price target to $235 from $210

NFLX Netflix initiated with an Underweight at Evercore

Target $115.

BIDU Baidu upgraded to Buy from Hold at 86 Research

86 Research changed its view on Baidu to a Buy given favorable risk/reward and mobile search growth over then next five years. The firm believes incremental positive data could drive shares higher and that macro fundamentals have stabilized.


Wednesday is premium erosion day so will not look to play much. BBBY reports after the bell and think they may suprise to the upside after dropping the last few quarters. Will nibble some calls. China numbers and BIDU upgrade should help China ADRs so will grab more SINA. There is a disclaimer somewhere on the site saying DO NOT TRADE SINA, as it always seems to lose money. SO PLEASE BE WARY!



Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
BBBY CALL $70.00 April 0.44 0.44
BBBY CALL $72.50 April 0.16 0.16
SINA CALL $50.00 Weekly 0.40 0.40



Lets have a great day today!!!


- JB

4-9-2013 Watch List

Yesterdays gap at the open was sold, and the market faded into the red, only to rally and finish solidly in the Green. NFLX and GOOG were weak while AAPL closed green. Some decent moves on the watchlist as CMG continued its move from friday. Shutterfly looked ready to break, but closed below $44.

AA reported decent numbers after the close, but there are still concerns going forward. Don’t think the earnings have a negative impact so will wait for the Banks on friday to give us a little more direction.

JCP CEO Johnson finally out and should bring some volatility to the stock. I wont be playing it but I am sure there will be some trading opportunities there.


Most of the talk continues to be the Japan easing program which is having impacts all over the world. There is talk of money coming out of Japan and into some of the higher yield Eurozone bonds like Spain and Italy, which has lowered the yields to yearly lows.


Have to figure money will continue to find it’s way into US equities over the coming weeks.


Here are some of the analyst changes of note this morning:


AZO AutoZone valuation most compelling in group, says BofA/Merrill

BofA/Merrill said AutoZone's valuation is the most compelling in the group and sees commercial market sales as a substantial opportunity. The firm notes AutoZone continues to repurchase a large number of shares and reiterates its Buy rating.

AA Alcoa shares likely to be weighed down by aluminum market, says RBC Capital

After Alcoa reported stronger than expected Q1 results, RBC Capital nevertheless thinks that poor aluminium market fundamentals will continue to weigh on the company's share price and constrain its results. The firm keeps an Underperform rating on the shares.

BIIB Biogen price target raised to $215 from $180 at RBC Capital

RBC Capital expects the launch of Biogen's Tecfidera to be "fine," and the firm expects investors to become more interested in the company's pipeline over the next 12-18 months. The firm thinks the company's pipeline of late-stage candidates is superior to those of its peers, and it maintains an Outperform rating on the shares.

SRPT Sarepta initiated with a Buy at Canaccord

Target $47.

MAKO MAKO Surgical upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Mizuho

Mizuho upgraded MAKO Surgical due to valuation, uni-knees growth, cash position, and achievable estimates. Price target raised to $14.

SSYS Stratasys initiated with a Buy at Canaccord Target $82.

SSTK Shutterstock has 28M share lockup expiration today, says Jefferies

Jefferies notes that around 28M shares of Shutterstock unlock for Tuesday trading. However, the firm estimates that only 2.9M of these shares could come to market due to Rule 144 provisions and blackouts. Jefferies reiterates a Buy rating on Shutterstock and raised its price target for shares to $46 from $35, saying the company's library of images now exceeds 25M, it's most ever.

ISRG Intuitive Surgical initiated with a Buy at WallachBeth Target $610.

Will keep the gameplan very small today. Will look to possible grab some ISRG calls after the open, of the price is right. Two firms out with upgrades today. May also try and play a continued move in WYNN shares, as well as trying to time the NFLX bounce (finally). Will be eyeing BBBY from tomorrow after the close, but will wait until tomorrow, if I do pull the trigger.

Here are the strikes I am watching:


Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
ISRG CALL $520.00 Weekly 0.65 0.60
ISRG CALL $525.00 Weekly 0.30 0.30
WYNN CALL $130.00 April 0.30 0.30
NFLX CALL $180.00 weekly 0.32 0.30



Still like CMG, SFLY, OPEN and SAM here as well.


See you in chat and lets have a great day!


- JB