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September 26th, 2013 Watch List

 

Abhacken

 

Make that 5 red days in a row on the SPY, as the market struggles to find momentum. We are nearing the 50dma of 167.42 on the SPY once again. Could be the support level if we get there. The mysterious part of this pullback, has been the complacency of the move, as the VIX has been down 3 of the past 5 days despite the pullback. One would think it would be up 5 of the 5 days? I have a feeling we are going to have a big day(up or down) in the next sessions or two.

 

UNXL finally paid dividends and was up 20% at times yesterday, an amazing call from UPB! Some of his thoughts on the stock here:

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/unxl-latest-take-stock/

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/morning-market-video-aapl-unxl-angi-tsla-jcp/

 

Looks like CLF and WLT are next? : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/chart-based-trade-idea-week-next/

 

MAKO buyout yesterday put a bid in ISRG, but not enough, and the stock fizzled. Will have to see how that pans out. China ADRs continue to look hot and maybe another breakout day for SINA.

 

If anyone ever needed a textbook example of why analysts are mostly useless I bring you Facebook. Over the past 2 months the stock has more than doubled and added over $60 billion in market cap value. So the company has performed twice as good the past two months then the previous 12 months ? Obviously they are performing better but a large cap stock like Facebook shouldn’t move 100% in 2 months if folks knew what the heck they were doing.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes for today:

 

 

 

FB Facebook video ads likely won't add much value to shares, says Bernstein
Bernstein estimates that Facebook's upcoming video ads will only increase the company's revenue by $400M in 2014. The firm thinks the video ads are likely to negatively affect the website's engagement and impressions. It keeps a Market Perform rating on the stock

 

RL Ralph Lauren recent weakness a buying opportunity, says Cowen
Cowen would use recent weakness in Ralph Lauren as a buying opportunity and said its survey data is extremely positive for the brand long-term. Shares are Outperform rated with a $204 price target

 

LL Lumber Liquidators price target raised to $135 from $108 at Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray raised its price target for Lumber Liquidators to $135 after performing a 10-year growth analysis and reiterates an Overweight rating on the stock. Piper believes the flooring industry continues to be set for a multi-year recovery

 

 

MS Morgan Stanley Q3 EPS estimate lowered at Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse lowered Morgan Stanley's Q3 EPS estimate to 41c from 46c, vs. consensus of 49c, due to weaker than expected fixed income contribution and increased litigation costs. Shares are Neutral rated with a $26 price target

 

SOHU Sohu.com initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse
Target $98

 

BIDU Baidu initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse
Target $180

 

SINA initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse
Target $81

 

FB Facebook price target raised to $60 from $37 at Jefferies
Jefferies raised its estimates for Facebook citing the company's "promising" new ad products and upped its price target for the stock to $60. The firm sees room for further margin expansion at Facebook as the company monetizes its 1.15B user base and keeps a Buy rating on the stock

 

JCP J. C. Penney price target lowered to $7 from $11 at Citigroup
Citigroup lowered its price target for J. C. Penney shares to $7 on concerns the retailer's turnaround is taking longer than expected and its vendor relationships are deteriorating. Citi thinks J. C. Penney has enough cash for 2013, but feels it’s prudent for the company raise capital to "cushion against a potentially challenging Holiday season." Citi reiterates a Sell rating on shares of J. C. Penney, saying its basic liquidation valuation analysis indicates the floor in the stock could be $1 per share. Shares of J. C. Penney closed yesterday down 15%, or $1.78, to $10.12

 

LNKD LinkedIn price target raised to $280 from $250 at Wunderlich
Wunderlich raised its estimates for LinedIn saying the company's Talent solutions unit should continue to outperform growth expectations in Q3. The firm upped its price target for shares to $280 and keeps a Buy rating on the stock

 

 

 

Here are the strikes I am looking at:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
CF CALL $220.00 Weekly 0.35 0.30
SINA CALL $85.00 Weekly 0.41 0.35

 

 

CF has been on a tear and think the mojo continues. WIll also look to get some SINA calls if it shows strength.

 

Lets have a great day!

 

- JB

Morning Market Video – $AAPL, $UNXL, $ANGI, $TSLA, $JCP

$UNXL up over 14% yesterday. What is the next stock to post a large move?

What's going on this morning? $GOOG has it broken support? $TSLA closed at an all time high yet the bears are more vocal than ever. Will this stock ever pull back? And if it does where will it find a bottom? These are very good questions heading into todays trading session. I answered them and more in my morning market video. Here is my morning market video.

September 25th, 2013 Watch List

 

Abhacken

The SPY finished red for the fourth session in a row as folks are using the debt ceiling talks and confusion over the taper to take profits. Yesterday saw some nice moves with ANGI continuing its break out, BIDU breaking out (then fading), and AAPL fading after the open as analysts downplayed the 9 million iphone sales number.

We had a buyout of Mako today for $30 a share, this stock has been on the rebound and was a stock I always had on my watchlist, but hadn’t purchased calls on in sometime... oh welll. Sound like DUBI has come calls, so hope he does and banks some major coin! Mako buyout should put a bid into ISRG and maybe one to watch today.

The RedWriggler was on the LIghtning Round last night and asked Jim Cramer about UNXL. Cramer said he doesnt like a crowded short so think he mistook the question, unless you really wanted to short? Either way, fun stuff!

 

If you missed the text trade idea yesterday it was ANGI 27.50 calls - .25 x 30. They almost doubled but faded the end of the day. Have plenty of time on them. Great one found by UPB. Here are some of the thoughts on the stock:

 

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/angi-video-chart-update/

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/unxl-angi-chart-updates/

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/bull-case-angies-list-angi/

 

Lets see if we can end the 4 day losing streak on the SPY today.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes of note:

 

 

ISRG Intuitive Surgical named new top pick at SunTrust
SunTrust called Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) its new top pick after its survey of hospital executives indicated that those who have changed da Vinci purchasing plans were for delays and not cancellations. The firm expects those purchases to come back within 24 months and keeps a Buy rating on Intuitive Surgical with a $506 price target. Note MAKO Surgical (MAKO), another developer of robotic surgery, was acquired this morning by Stryker (SYK). Shares of Intuitive are trading up 2%, or $8.10, to $371.99 in pre-market trading

 

CF CF Industries upgraded at Atlantic Equities
As previously reported, Atlantic Equities upgraded CF Industries to Overweight from Neutral. The firm upgraded shares due to a potential rebound in corn prices and a seasonal recovery in Nitrogen prices. Price target is $245

 

CCL Carnival price target lowered to $40 from $43 at Susquehanna
Susquehanna lowered its price target on Carnival Corp following weak Q3 results. The firm remains Positive on the shares citing its pricing survey which points to improved net yields, expectations for better fuel pricing, and upcoming easier comps

 

SINA added to Select List at Stifel
Stifel believes that SINA's Weibo reached a major turning point in Q2, with the microblog helping to accelerate SINA's total revenue and improving its overall margins. The firm expects Weibo's growth to enable the company to generate revenue growth acceleration and margin expansion. It keeps a $100 price target and Buy rating on the shares

 

 

BA Boeing price target raised to $146 from $127 at Bernstein
Bernstein believes that Boeing's shares are still inexpensive on most metrics, as the firm thinks the company has several upcoming catalysts and low risk, while the 787's costs are on track. It keeps an Outperform rating on the stock

 

QCOR Questcor pullback a buying opportunity, says Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray believes the recent weakness in shares of Questcor presents an attractive buying opportunity and reiterates an Overweight rating on the stock with a $74 price target. Piper says most major managed care organizations continue to reimburse for Actha

 

CELG Celgene price target raised to $177 from $165 at Leerink
Leerink raised its price target for Celgene shares to $177 after meeting with management and keeps an Outperform rating on the stock. The firm said it left the meeting with increased conviction in the company's near- and long-term growth potential

 

MCO Moody's price target raised to $79 from $74 at Lazard Capital
Lazard Capital raised its price target for Moody's to $79 saying the company's new issue pipeline appears to be strengthening. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the stock

 

FB Facebook price target raised to $54 from $36 at Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer raised its price target for Facebook shares to $54 citing higher usage trends and a $4 per share valuation for Instagram. Opco sees additional upside potential from video ads, the FBX launch into mobile, and increased payments activity. The firm keeps an Outperform rating on the stock. Shares of Facebook closed yesterday up $1.26 to $48.45

 

CTRP Ctrip.com upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank upgraded Ctrip.com citing strong travel booking volumes and its belief the company is emerging as the travel solution leader in mobile. The firm raised its price target for shares to $65 from $35.20

 

 

Got out of my NFLX puts yesterday as well as added PCLN 1050 calls and ANGI 27.50 calls @ .25 and .30.

Will look for a few more PCLN calls as think the stock keeps chugging higher into Friday. ISRG is up on the MAKO buyout, but think it may move to 385 or so and will try some calls possibly:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
PCLN CALL $1,050.00 Weekly 0.65 0.55
ISRG CALL $390.00 Weekly 0.20 0.30

 

 

Don’t forget LeeMalone will be doing a Webinar on Spreads Thursday at 4:30pm : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/trading-spread-leemalone-gold/

 

 

Lets have a Great DAY!

 

- JB

$SPY $QQQ $DIA Where Is the Market Headed?

Stocks were down again today. A nasty late day sell off turned a promising trading session into a losing one for the bulls. Where do stocks head from here? I will share my thoughts about the short and long term prospects for the market in my video.

"Stocks stumbled in the final minutes of trading to end near session lows Tuesday, with the Dow and S&P posting their fourth-straight session in the red, as investors remained cautious amid uncertainties surrounding central bank's stimulus program and budget discussions in Washington."

September 24th, 2013 Watch List

Abhacken

 

A red start to the week as the SPY closed red for a third day in a row despite AAPL adding nearly 5%. Most sectors were red led by financials. Futures are red this morning, and debt ceiling talks continue to add uneasiness to the markets. Again, my worry is for some U.S. debt downgrade, which is what ignited a sell-off in the summer of 2011. The longer this drags out, the more concerned I will become.

Yes, I did buy puts on something other then gold and Apple yesterday, and yes it was on one of my more beloved stocks Netflix. Does that mean the stock is done? By no means, it just looked primed to sell-off based on the Emmy news and the sell-off at the open from the $320 all-time high. I am looking for a rapid pullback to the 50dma. If I dont see weakness today, I may close out the puts I have as they expire friday.

UPB has been very bullish on ANGI, a stock that has run quite a bit since it’s ipo, and has been subject to negative reports by Citron and Seeking Alpha. I did some more digging last night and really like this story. Revenue is growin 50-60% YOY despite the company being in business over 18 years. It took them 16 years to get 1 million subscribers and only 18 months to cross the 2 million mark. Folks will cite the negative reviews and the fact that they take money from advertisers to move up listings as well as charging subscribers to use their service. I would argue that most reviews on Yelp and other avenues are manipulated. Having just been married and I can tell you all the vendors gave incentives to write positive reviews. My photographer gave free photo packages for each verifiable positive review you make, which you have to show them. As far as subscribers paying to be a part of Angies list, the cost is minimal and vendors are required to give discounts so its a win win. Either way, with the huge short interest, and revenue continuing to grow, think this stock touches 25+ in the coming days. Nice call on this UPB.

 

AAPL has been upgraded by at least 5 firms this morning as analysts try to play catchup  on Iphone 5c/s sales.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes for today:

 

 

AOL AOL outlook positive, says JMP Securities
After AOL announced that reserved inventory would be available to its Programmatic Upfront clients starting on January 1, JMP Securities is encouraged to hear that five agencies have already committed ad dollars to AOL, with three other agencies considering an Upfront commitment. The firm thinks that a number of changes made by the company will cause its revenue growth and profitability to accelerate, with the company starting to report better results for this quarter. It reiterates a $44 price target and Outperform rating on the stock

 

AAPL Apple price target raised to $525 from $450 at RW Baird
Baird raised its price target on Apple following its report of its first weekend of iPhone 5S and 5C sales. The firm raised its estimates as well to reflect higher gross margin assumptions and its positioning over the next twelve months. Baird maintains its Neutral rating due to longer term margin and competitive questions

 

RHT Red Hat outlook still attractive, says Wells Fargo
After Red Hat reported lower than expected billings, Wells Fargo still thinks the company is one of the best long-term ideas in software. The firm continues to believe that the company can generate mid-teen percentage revenue growth for the next several years, and it keeps an Outperform rating on the shares

 

FANG Diamondback Energy upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Sterne Agee
Price target is $54

 

AAPL Apple upgraded at Susquehanna
As previously reported, Susquehanna upgraded Apple to Positive from Neutral. The analyst upgraded shares due to the stronger than expected new iPhone launch, healthy backlog, and a likely China Mobile launch ahead. Price target raised to $625 from $440

 

BBRY BlackBerry upgraded to Hold from Sell at Canaccord
BlackBerry is being acquired by a Fairfax Financial led consortium for $9 per share

 

SBUX JPMorgan sees 'more modest' upside for shares of Starbucks
JPMorgan says shares of Starbucks are up 75% since bottoming on August 2, 2012. The firm sees continued upside to shares, but at a "much more modest" pace, and raised its price target for the stock to $80 from $74. JPMorgan keeps an Overweight rating on Starbucks

 

 

Here are the strikes I am looking at for the open:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
ANGI CALL $25.00 OCT 0.55 0.50
NFLX PUT $275.00 Weekly 0.29 0.29

 

 

Lets have a Great day!!

 

- JB