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5-1-2013 Watch List

 

Another day, another all-time high close on the SPY as we near 160. Well SPY actually went above 160 pre-market but has faded a bit on some weaker then expected ADP employment numbers. There are too many earnings reports to mention today, and many more after the bell and tomorrow morning.

We also have the Fed Meeting notes out later today. I expect nothing drastic that would effect markets, but there are talks of a possible reduction in the bond buying (Thanks Mavi for sharing): http://www.livemint.com/Politics/hRd8UQ0mVD7pETr1ZNJqgN/Fed-seen-slowing-stimulus-with-QE-cut-to-50-billion-by-year.html

 

Played Western Union calls for earnings. The stock ramped to $15 and the calls bought at .25/.30 hit .45/.50. WU reported decent numbers but its more about the turnaround currently in progress, and looks like the company is pointed in the right direction. Shares are  red pre-market, but think they will recover. Garmin reported earnings this morning and beat on the revenue side, yet missed on the EPS. Decent numbers but growth still looks questionable going forward and shares may show some weakness at the open. Have the $32 May puts so will wait and see.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes today:

BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings coverage assumed with a Hold at Jefferies

Target $87.

AMGN Amgen upgraded to Conviction Buy from Neutral at Goldman

Goldman upgraded Amgen (AMGN) based on valuation and its late-stage pipeline which is highly innovative and has the potential to replace key biologic franchises that are coming off patent. Price target raised to $130 from $100. Note the firm downgraded Biogen (BIIB) to Neutral from Conviction Buy.

BIIB Biogen downgraded to Neutral from Conviction Buy at Goldman

Goldman downgraded Biogen (BIIB) citing balanced risk/reward. The firm prefers Amgen (AMGN) which was upgraded to Conviction Buy from Neutral. Biogen's price target raised to $215 from $211.

PPO Polypore initiated with a Neutral at Goldman

Target $39.

TRLA Trulia upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan

JPMorgan upgraded Trulia citing strong subscriber growth and and expanded inventory following the company's Q1 results. The firm raised its price target for shares to $41 from $34.

REGN Regeneron estimates raised on Eylea growth and pipeline at Goldman

Golman raised Regeneron estimates following a physician survey on its pipeline cholesterol drug, REGN727, and for its eye disease drug Eylea following Bayer's Q1 report. Shares are Buy rated with a $240 price target, up from $230.

 

ICE was a stock I had on watch yesterday but the calls were too pricey going into earnings. Will be watching for a possible play this morning at the open. Also like YELP and SFLY for earnings and will try and get a position in both. Again, remember these earnings plays are 100% crapshoots. So expect them to expire worthless.

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
YELP CALL $30.00 May 0.44 0.40
SFLY CALL $55.00 June 0.37 0.35

 

 

Lets have a great trading day!

 

- JB

4-30-2013 Watch List

 

Another nearly historic day on Monday with the SPY coming within a hair of the intra-day all-time high but closing at all-time ‘closing’  levels. The Nasdaq closed at 2000 highs, and the market continues to defy gravity. Browsing through any of the financial sites you can be sure to see the “sell in may” headlines, which is another fear as the market continues to climb the ‘wall of worry’

Obviously this market cant be expected to go straight up, and one would have to think we start getting a little heavy on the 160 break on the SPY... or will it? Still think we need VIX under 10 before we get amy major pullback.

Fed Meeting notes come out tomorrow afternoon and would expect nothing to really change besides possibly some stronger wording on QE infinity lasting later into 2014..ect. Deflation has not really been a concern, it has more been about inflation. But the recent sell off in commods has shaken some folks, and a deflationary environment would be very negative for the economy. So think this will keep the FED in an easy monetary policy for the longer term.

 

Earnings from BWLD and HLF yesterday after hours. BWLD earnings were not too bad, but weren’t to great either. Analysts are mixed on the report with some upgrades/dowgrades and the stock is off a few dollars pre-market. Another great example of how risky option trades are going into earnings, as both sides of that one will probably lose. HLF reported earnings that beat, and raised guidance yet the stock is slightly green pre-market.

 

After the bell today we have Western Union, a stock I think will possibly bounce. We grabbed the $15 May calls yesterday and will hope for a decent move today so we can lock some in before the close.

ICE reports tomorrow as well as GRMN, and will look to get some lotto positions before the close.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes today:

 

 

VZ Verizon may not benefit from Vodafone deal, says Stifel

Stifel believes that a purchase of Vodafone's (VOD) Verizon Wireless stake by Verizon (VZ) would significantly dilute current Verizon shareholders, and raise Verizon's cash interest and tax expenses. The firm thinks the deal's costs may ultimately outweigh its benefits for Verizon ,and Stifel keeps a Hold rating on the stock.

BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings risk/reward favorable, says RW Baird at RW Baird

Baird believes the risk/reward for Buffalo Wild wings is favorable at current levels despite soft Q1 results. The firm cited positive comps momentum, planned margin improvement, and confidence the company's earnings can meet or beat guidance. Shares are Outperform rated with a $105 price target.

PETM PetSmart added to Best Ideas List at Wedbush

Wedbush added PetSmart to its Best Ideas List after meeting with management and reiterates an Outperform rating on the stock. The firm believes investors concerns are overdone and raised its price target for shares to $82.

EXPE Expedia recent pullback overdone, says Lazard Capital

Lazard Capital views the pullback in shares of Expedia since the company's Q1 results Thursday is overdone. The firm views the stock's valuation as compelling at current levels and keeps a Buy rating on the name with a $75 price target.

BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings price target raised to $105 from $95 at Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank attributes Buffalo Wild Wings' Q1 earnings miss to higher expenses and says the company's gross margin recovery theme remains intact. The firm raised its estimates and price target to reflect lower wing costs and maintains a Buy rating on the stock.

BLK PNC stake sale could be catalyst for BlackRock, says Citigroup

Citigroup says recent commentary from PNC Financial (PNC) management suggests a possible shift in thinking around the bank's 22% ownership in BlackRock (BLK). Citi thinks a possible secondary whereby PNC would dispose of its 35.7M share stake in BlackRock could be a catalyst for BlackRock shares given BlackRock's ability to repurchase shares and its history of participating in such transactions. Citi attributes part of the recent rally in BlackRock shares to implications of a possible secondary and keeps a Buy rating on the name with a $285 price target.

CELG Celgene price target raised to $152 from $140 at Jefferies

Jefferies raised its price target for Celgene citing its analysis of the upcoming data from MM-020, a front-line study of Revlimid-dexamethasone vs. melphalan, prednisone and thalidomide. The firm says a statistically significant benefit in the overall survival would be a major surprise and keeps a Buy rating on shares of Celgene.

SINA upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies

Jefferies upgraded SINA citing better Weibo monetization following the company's strategic alliance with Alibaba. The firm raised its price target for shares to $75 from $50.

BBY Best Buy upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank upgraded Best Buy citing potential positive catalysts in 2013, including its expectations for better than expected Q1 results and continued cost cutting. The firm raised its price target for shares to $28 from $17.

 

Here are some of the positions I am looking to get today:

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
WU CALL $15.00 May 0.30 0.30
ICE CALL $180.00 June 0.40 0.40
GRMN PUT $32.00 May 0.32 0.30

 

 

 

WIll try and add to my WU position at the open, as well as grab some puts for possible downside on GRMN. Calls for ICE are pricey into may, so will try for June 180 calls which will be a double if ICE moves towards $170.

 

Lets have a great day!

 

- JB

4-29-2013 Watch List

 

Fridays lower then expected GDP numbers shook the market a bit, and we ended an otherwise positive week, on a down note. Futures are in the green this morning, and commodities are rallying with Gold up nearly $20, and Silver/Platinum up nearly 2%. We are still quite close to all-time highs on the SPY, and looks like $160 is in reach this week.

Tons of earnings reports due, including BWLD after the close today. Spoke about a few of them on the week ahead and how I will be playing them. You can find the week ahead here:

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/399-The-Week-AHead-with-JB-4-28-2013

 

Folks asked me about JCP yesterday, and I’ll continue to just watch, but some more possible good news on the horizon after the Soros stake last week and the loan this morning : http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/blight_brigade_ZEKHp90e4vyaxxuELb4HoO

 

SINA finally had some good news as the rumored Alibaba stake became a reality as Alibaba announced a partnership as well as 18% stake in SINA with the possibility of 30% in the future. SINA is up over $11 right now and will wait and see how she plays out today.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes today:

DKS Dick's Sporting initiated with an Overweight at Barclays

Target $57.

PVH PVH Corp. added to U.S. Focus List at Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse added PVH to the U.S. Focus List given long-term earnings power of the combined Warnaco business acquisition, improved control of Calvin Klein distribution, improved product assortments, and consumer engagement. Shares are Outperform rated with a $139 price target.

DIS Disney upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS

UBS upgraded DIsney citing multiple levers to drive shares higher that include the contribution from retrans/reverse comp, an acceleration of return on capital, parks margin expansion, and recent acquisitions. Price target raised to $72 from $55.

ANF Abercrombie & Fitch upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie

Macquarie upgraded Abercrombie to reflect expectations for margin improvement and earnings expansion driven by management initiatives to improve fashion, reduce lead-times, and potential for increasing buybacks. Price target raised to $63 from $50.

FB Facebook Q1 revenue could miss expectations, says Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray believes Facebook could report Q1 revenue on Wednesday that misses consensus expectations by 1%-2%. Piper says the company's core ad revenue growth may not accelerate as fast as analysts expect. However, the firm thinks Facebook is positioning itself for sustained mid-term growth through investments in mobile and keeps an Overweight rating on the stock.

 

As I spoke about in the Week Ahead, like WU for a bounce over $15 and the calls are relatively inexpensive. WIll try and put another bid in for SAM ( I have 185 calls already). Will also try and play SOHU as they reported strong earnings this morning and may move $54-55 today:

 

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
WU CALL $15.00 May 0.25 0.25
SAM CALL $190.00 May 0.51 0.50
SOHU CALL $55.00 May 0.90 0.40

 

 

Will post in chat and twitter any trades. Will also be doing some DittoTrades today for those that follow.

 

Lets have a great day!

 

- JB

4-26-2013 Watch List

 

 

Another solid green day yesterday, as SPY marched above $159 for some of the session, only to fade near the end of the day. We had some more nice movers in the morning including WYNN and LVS, as well as an FFIV ramp and many, many others. After hours we had earnings from WYNN, EXPE, AMZN, and SBUX to name a few of the many.

 

GDP numbers are out this morning below expectations. Folks were expecting 3.0-3.1% compared to the 2.5% reported. Futures added to their losses after the report and we will see if this will be a “buy the dip’ or a sell the news day. With some many revisions on the number, I don’t think the miss is as big as it looks.

 

WYNN numbers were very good and 2 PT upgrades this morning, but will need to see $138 break for further upside. AMZN calls I have for May will need a miracle. NFLX had a nice upgrade today, so will watch for a possible break above $220.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes today:

 

SBUX Starbucks price target raised to $70 from $65 at RW Baird

Baird raised its price target on Starbucks following Q3 results. The firm cited continued comps momentum, raised guidance and its clean balance sheet. Shares are Outperform rated.

UPS UPS guidance conservative, says Bernstein

After UPS reported higher than expected Q1 EPS but maintained its guidance, Bernstein views the company's U.S. performance as encouraging and maintains an Outperform rating on the shares.

BIIB Biogen price target raised to $230 from $179-$189 at Leerink

Leerink raised its price target for Biogen following the company's Q1 results and increased guidance. The firm reiterates an Outperform rating on the stock

NFLX Netflix price target raised to $325 from $250 at Lazard Capital

Lazard Capital raised its long-term estimates and price target for Netflix after concluding the company has the characteristics of a successful TV network. As such, Lazard Capital believes Netflix's margins will trend higher, making the shares attractively valued. The firm raised its price target for Netflix shares to $325 and keeps a Buy rating on the stock.

SBUX Starbucks weakness would create buying opportunity, says Oppenheimer

After Starbucks reported in-line Q2 results, Oppenheimer believes that the company's operating momentum remains strong. The firm thinks that several positive catalysts are poised to accelerate the company's earnings in 2H13 versus 1H13, and it raised its price target on the shares to $65 from $62 while maintaining an Outperform rating.

EXPE Expedia turnaround largely on track, says Cantor

After Expedia reported stronger than expected Q1 results but lowered its organic EBITDA forecast, Cantor believes that continued acceleration in Expedia.com hotels indicates that Expedia's turnaround efforts remains largely on track. The firm keeps a $75 price target and Buy rating on the shares.

FB Facebook upgraded at Raymond James

As previously reported, Raymond James upgraded Facebook to Strong Buy from Outperform. The firm upgraded shares based on expectations that new ad formats and increased ad load will result in higher monetization, higher mobile growth adoption, and attractive risk/reward. Price target remains $37.

CSTR Coinstar price target raised to $70 from $65 at Benchmark Co.

Benchmark Co. believes Coinstar continues to take DVD market share following the company's Q1 results. The firm raised its price target for shares and keeps a Buy rating on the name

WYNN Wynn Resorts price target raised to $155 from $146 at Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank believes shares of Wynn Resorts should keep moving higher following the company's Q1 results. The firm upped its price target for shares to $155 and keeps a Buy rating on the stock.

Nomura maintains Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ: WYNN) with a Buy and raises the price target from $141.00 to $147.00.

EXPE Expedia Q1 solid, guidance conservative, says Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank believes Expedia reported solid Q1 results and views the company's outlook as conservative. The firm sees a favorable risk/reward on shares and maintains a Buy rating on Expedia with an $80 price target.

 

Will be looking at a few weeklies expiring today for lottos. Here are the ones I am looking at:

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
NFLX CALL $220.00 Weekly 0.49 0.40
NFLX CALL $225.00 Weekly 0.20 0.15
LNKD CALL $190.00 Weekly 0.75 0.30
AAPL CALL $415.00 Weekly 0.59 0.40

 

 

If AAPL gets some mojo, may look to head higher into the weekend. $410s are too pricey so will try 415s if i like the action at the open. LNKD wants to close over 190 as well, and will place a bet on that possibly if the calls decline from the .75 closing price on Thursday. Will be watching NFLX for a bid on the $325 u/g today.

Lets have a great day, and see you Sunday night for the Week Ahead.

- JB

4-25-2013 Watch List

 

The Market battled all day to finish in the green, but a late day pull back saw gains melt away, and the SPY and Nasdaq finished near flat, while the DOW finished in the red. Overnight, Spain released its unemployment numbers, which topped 27%! UK, on the other hand, squeaked out a positive GDP number and will not be in a recession... for now.

 

Futures are up nicely this morning, and the market is getting near all-time highs once again. Jobless claims this morning came out at the lowest levels in a few months, helping futures add to their gains. Amazing how resilient the market has been.

There have been too many earning reports to mention, and some more coming today. The one I have my eyes on are AMZN and WYNN. I think (hope) this is the report that takes AMZN over $300, and think (hope) this is the report that sends WYNN back on its way to $160. EXPE is always an interesting play and PCLN could one to watch on the back of those.

 

Tons of analyst changes today, and most are upgrades:

 

AAPL Apple upgraded to Buy from Long-Term Buy at Hilliard Lyons

Hilliard Lyons upgraded Apple citing valuation and the $60B buyback and 3% dividend yield. Price target raised to $540 from $680.

QCOM Qualcomm price target lowered to $74 from $83 at Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray says Qualcomm's guidance was weaker than expected despite the slight raise. The firm sees margin pressure and falling handset prices as challenges for the company but keeps an Overweight rating on the name despite the lowered price target.

YUM Yum! Brands upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Raymond James

 

MLNX) Mellanox downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho

MLNX  Mellanox downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham

VAR Varian Medical price target lowered to $64 from $70 at Cantor

Cantor reduced its target on Varian after the company provided weaker than expected guidance. The firm expects the macro and regulatory challenges facing the company to persist and it keeps a Hold rating on the shares

CROX Crocs shares recommended at Goldman

Goldman reiterates its Buy rating on Crocs given the positive inflection in Asia, easing sales comps, improving inventory management, conservative guidance, and valuation. Price target raised to $19.

DECK Deckers Outdoor Q1 results likely to beat expectations, says Jefferies

Jefferies believes Deckers Outdoor's Q1 results today after the close are likely to top expectations and says the stock remains its top pick. The firm thinks sentiment on shares remains overly negative and keeps a Buy rating on the name with a $100 price target

YUM Yum! Brands shares have been de-risked, says RBC Capital

RBC Capital believes that several factors, including Yum!'s reiteration of its EPS guidance and the outlook for negative China comps through Q4, have substantially taken the risk out of the company's stock. The firm raised its price target on the shares to $75 from $69 and keeps an Outperform rating on the stock.

VMW VMware downgraded at Bernstein

As previously reported, Bernstein downgraded VMware to Underperform from Market Perform. The firm believes consensus growth expectations for VMware are too high and cites lack of revenue growth in end user computing, the nascent state of Software Defined Datacenters, and lack of visibility on how the hybrid cloud will benefit the company. Price target lowered to $61 from $75.

WDC Western Digital downgraded to Hold from Buy at Craig-Hallum

Craig-Hallum downgraded Western Digital due to valuation. Price target is $54.

WDC Western Digital price target raised to $65 from $60 at Brean Capital

Brean Capital raised its price target on Western Digital following Q3 results. The firm cited management guidance on both earnings and gross margins and would be aggressive buyers on any pullback in shares. Shares are Buy rated.

 

Again, missed AMZN calls and will finally pull the trigger today. May look to dabble in some lotto WYNN calls as well, so I can lock in my $135s. Think if AMZN shows some growth, especially with their AWS, then the stock runs like it has on some past earnings 10-15%. We shall see.

 

Similar strikes I am watching as yesterday:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
WYNN CALL $150.00 May 0.19 0.20
AMZN CALL $320.00 Weekly 0.20 0.20
AMZN CALL $330.00 MAY 0.35 0.35

 

Dont forget Lee is doing a Webinar at 4:30pm to talk about option strategies: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/option-strategies-with-leemalone-thursday-april-25th-at-430pm-gold-and-above/

 

Lets have a great day!

 

- JB