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5-14-2013 Watch List

 

Yesterday was a slightly mixed trading session as the market pulled mostly into the green. We had retail sales numbers yesterday, and import numbers today. Nothing that should move the market much. The number I am looking forward to is the CPI number released thursday at 8:30am. I am still a bear on Silver and Gold, and still hold my 22.50 puts that expire this week. Why am I holding them even when i could have locked them in for 50%+ profit 2 times over the past week? I think Silver and Gold will have another ‘down the rabbit hole’moment, where we see a serious 5-10% decline over  24-48 hours. That is what I am holding for.

The WSJ had two articles about possible inflation worries... well actually the lack thereof. Where worldwide inflation levels have dropped the most in many years. Here are the articles although you probably need a WSJ subscription:

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324031404578481263524848442.html

 

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/05/13/retail-data-highlight-fed-inflation-dilemma/

 

There has been many rumbling over the past week on the Feds plan to scale back QE. I think thats more of a need for news outlets to lure readers in. We shall see. Possible deflation can be devastating to the recovery and the CPI number on thursday will be a great indicator on what more measures the Fed may need to take to get things back on track.

 

There have been some monster moves in some individual equities over the years, but this move in TSLA has to take one of the top spots. The stock move up another double digits yesterday, and is up again pre-market. Believing the unthinkable on a momentum play like this can yield gigantic returns on options, so congrats to anyone who bought early and is still holding!

 

I like quite a few stocks this week, but like WYNN and NFLX to really breakout. Here is my write-up from last night(gold and above) : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/two-stocks-on-the-move/

 

Here are some of the analyst changes of note today:

 

 

YHOO Yahoo price target raised to $30 from $27 at Goldman
Goldman raised Yahoo estimates to account for Alibaba, continued growth acceleration, and appreciation in Yahoo! Japan shares. The firm rates Yahoo1 Conviction Buy.

 

SODA SodaStream price target raised to $68 from $60 at Oppenheimer
After SodaStream introduced a target of $1B in sales by 2016 at its Analyst Day, Oppenheimer thinks that the company's growth strategy is just getting started, and should lead to continued meaningful improvement in financial results for the foreseeable future. The firm keeps an Outperform rating on the stock.

 

FOSL Fossil initiated with an Equal Weight at Stephens
Target $115.

 

TSLA Tesla price target raised to $103 from $47 at Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley believes the market is starting to realize Tesla's competency in technology, engineering, marketing, and manufacturing. The firm expects shares to continue to move higher driven by funding through regulatory credits, leasing program affordability, opportunistic capital raises given high share price, and model introductions, among other reasons. Shares are Overweight rated.

 

SSYS Stratasys price target raised to $94 from $80 at Needham
Needham raised its price target for Stratasys citing the company's solid Q1 results and reiterates a Buy rating on the stock.

 

YHOO Yahoo price target raised to $30 from $26 at Cantor
Cantor increased its price target on Yahoo, citing Alibaba's revenue growth acceleration in Q4 and improvements in Yahoo's unique visitor levels since Marissa Mayer became its CEO. The firm keeps a Buy rating on Yahoo.

 

SCTY SolarCity downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Roth Capital
Roth Capital downgraded SolarCity citing valuation. Price target raised to $30 from $20

 

V Visa price target raised to $196 from $177 at Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank raised its price target for Visa after meeting with the company's CEO Charlie Scharf and keeps a Buy rating on the stock

 

 

 

Here are the strikes I am looking at this morning:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
WYNN CALL $145.00 Weekly 0.26 0.20
NFLX CALL $260.00 Weekly 0.30 0.26
DE CALL $97.50 Weekly 0.32 0.30

 

 

 

Will look to possibly add to my WYNN and NFLX position, while also adding some DE calls for earnings tomorrow AM.

 

Lets have a great day folks!

 

- JB

5-13-2013 Watch List

 

 

Hope everyone had a great weekend. Futures are in the red this morning, with Japan being the lone shining star up another 1% overnight. Retail sales numbers are due today, and may help the market find some direction. We have WMT, DE, CSCO, and others reporting this week. Do not have any on the watchlist today, but will have some for tomorrow.

 

There continues to be talk that the fed has figured out its plan to end QE, but there is not date when they plan on slowing down the purchases. Here is piece on it: http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Fed-officials-withdraw-QE/2013/05/12/id/504053  The original article was in the WSJ but don’t want to post a link not everyone can read. Just something to keep an eye on, as the pullback(and subsequent buy the dip) was caused by the so called rumor. The CPI number this week will be an important one, as any signs of deflation may spur some more accommodative measures by the Fed.

 

I did the Week Ahead Webinar last night, but did not hit the record button. In the future will have to figure out a back up program just in case. Or maybe someone remind me to record!

 

Also, the chatroom was down for maintenance over the weekend. It is possible you may need to download the desktop app if you are unable to get in: http://host13501.123flashchat.com/sally/optionchat.zip

 

Here are the 4 stocks i spoke about and round out the ‘stocks i really like’: $SHLD , $OPEN, $BIDU, $WU.

 

I have positions in all 4 and will look to get more $SHLD this morning. WU was in barrons this weekend and is getting a nice boost on the article: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/12/us-westernunion-shares-idUSBRE94B09W20130512

 

Here are some of the analyst changes today:

 

DDD 3D Systems price target raised to $50 from $45 at Canaccord

Canaccord believes 3D systems can deliver consensus upside driven by strong printer and services revenue and for multiple expansion as the company commercializes Bespoke in 2H 2013. Shares are Buy rated.

BA Boeing price target raised to $120 from $100 at Sterne Agee

Sterne Agee increased its price target on Boeing as the firm expects the company to benefit from strong commercial aircraft demand and a book to bill ratio that will be above 1.0 in 2013 and 2014. The firm thinks the company's stock could rise 50% by 2015 and it keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

Yum! Brands China comps likely bottomed in Q1, says Oppenheimer

After Yum! Brands reported in-line April China comps of down 29%, Oppenheimer believes that the company's China comps likely bottomed in Q1 as the firm doesn't expect the avian flu outbreak in China to worsen. The firm expects Yum! to meet 2013 expectations, and it thinks the company could rebound significantly next year. The firm reiterates an Outperform rating on the stock.

BBRY BlackBerry Q10 sell through looks healthy, says RBC Capital

After conducting checks, RBC Capital believes that BlackBerry's Q10 will benefit from sales to professionals and enterprise users. The firm doesn't see major near-term negative catalysts for the company but keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares.

GOOG Google price target raised to $950 from $875 at BofA/Merrill

BofA/Merrill continues to see several 2H 2013 catalysts for Google that include the Enhanced campaign rollout, Motorola product launches, YouTube visibility, and traction in product listings ads. Shares are Buy rated.

CSCO Cisco upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at FBR Capital

FBR Capital upgraded Cisco to Market Perform citing valuation and better than expected SDN overlay solutions traction. The firm raised its price target for shares to $19 from $17.

KORS Michael Kors added to Best Ideas List at Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley added Michael Kors to its Best Ideas List given positive store checks, upbeat management meetings, beatable SG&A forecasts, and positive Q4 data points. Shares are Overweight rated with a $71 price target.

CTRIP Ctrip.com downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman

Goldman downgraded Ctrip.com due to valuation. Price target raised to $29 from $26

 

 

Here are the tickers I am looking at for the open:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
SHLD CALL $60.00 Weekly 0.43 0.36
BIDU CALL $105.00 Weekly 0.10 0.08
OPEN CALL $65.00 Weekly 0.30 0.25

 

 

I have quite a few May positions that will be expiring Friday, so will be small each day pending market conditions..ect.

 

 

 

Lets have a great day!!

 

- JB

5-10-2013 Watch List

 

What a week it has been. Three more solid green days to start the week, the DOWN closing above 15k , and the market just continues to defy gravity. Yesterday was an option traders dream, with many huge movers before the open as well as many after the open. TSLA  and GMCR provided some huge opportunities after the open, WU finally broke above $16, and BIDU started to excite. GOOG fizzled, so we will have to wait until next week for the march over $900. The Nikkei had another monster session overnight, as the USD/YEN traded over 100, and then bolted to 101.Yesterday the market showed a bit of weakness, but held its ground somewhat.

Silver and Gold are being sold off here this morning, as folks are starting to come to the realization that I have... that these commods are still in a bubble. Folks are using the stronger dollar to rationalize a sell-off today and will see if there is follow through at the open.

 

Looks like the PCLN lotto calls for May 18th will expire worthless, but you never know. This earnings season is a great example on how they are complete lottos, and most times are better to play the next day, then risk with some OTM strikes. Will be watching for a ramp at PCLN at open and may try to get some 750/760 calls just in case.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes today:

 

CF CF Industries price target raised to $295 from $280 at Susquehanna

Susquehanna raised its price target on CF Industries following Q1 results. The firm cited the company's accretive acquisition of an Alberta nitrogen facility and its share repurchases. Shares are Positive rated.

SINA upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman

Goldman upgraded Sina citing the Alibaba investment, which it expects to accelerate Weibo's revenues over the next several years. Price target raised to $67 from $58.

CF Industries upside limited, says Cowen

Coewn sees CF Industries upside as limited following generally in-line Q1 results. The firm cited downside price pressure on all the major nutrients in Q2 and believes the quarter may represent the best earnings environment the industry will see for some time. Cowen reiterates its Sell rating and $170 price target

PCLN priceline.com Q2 guidance not a cause for concern, says Cantor

After priceline.com provided lower than expected Q2 EPS guidance, Cantor isn't worried about the guidance, as it thinks the outlook reflects caution in a risky macro environment, as well as higher ad spending to drive growth. The firm believes that the company reported solid Q1 results, and it keeps an $800 price target and Buy rating on the shares.

PCLN priceline.com valuation highly attractive, says RBC Capital

After priceline.com reported stronger than expected Q1 results but provided lower than expected Q2 EPS guidance and its stock fell in after hours trading, RBC Capital believes that the company's new international markets and rental car offerings are performing well. The firm thinks the company is gaining market share and it keeps an Outperform rating on the stock.

SSYS Stratasys initiated with a Buy at Janney Capital

Target $101.

AAPL Apple margin decline concerns overblown, says Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray believes concern that Apple's margins will drop below 30% in the next two years is overblown. Piper continues to expect Apple will announce its TV product late in 2013 with shipment in 2014. The firm thinks shares will move higher as new products come into focus and keeps an Overweight rating on Apple, despite lowering its price target for shares to $655 from $688.

PCLN priceline.com price target raised to $924 from $886 at Credit Suisse

Shares are Outperform rated.

PCLN priceline.com price target lowered to $715 from $745 at Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank says it remains on the sidelines with regards to priceline.com shares given expectations for decelerating growth and margin compression in Q2. The firm lowered its price target for shares to $715 from $745 following the company's Q1 results and keeps a Hold rating on the name.

DDD 3D Systems initiated with a Buy at Janney Capital

Target $56

 

For those that missed it, here is the link for LeeMalones Options Strategies Webinar last night: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/406-Option-Strategies-with-LeeMalone-5-9-13?p=668#post668

It is 1 hour and 30 minutes of pure options excitement!

 

Will be watching a few at the open for lotto weeklies:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
PCLN CALL $750.00 Weekly $16 0.40
LNKD CALL $180.00 Weekly 0.38 0.20
GOOG CALL $880.00 Weekly 1 0.25

 

 

Will be keeping it small today and would love to see SLV fall and WU go through 16.25!

 

See you in the chatroom or the Week Ahead on Sunday!

 

- JB

5-9-2013 Watch List

 

Rinse and repeat seems to be the mantra. “Another day, another record high close for the markets.” - thats what we said yesterday, and could have said the day before. And for all we know, will be saying it tomorrow as well. Futures are lower this morning, but have recovered some of the losses as jobless claims came in better then expected and are at 2008 lows.

China inflation came in higher then expected and has concerned some about future stimulus to the economy. South Korea also unexpectedly lowered rates, as Japans massive currency devaluation is having an effect on Korea.

 

One would think that inflation in China would mean higher Gold and Silver prices, and it did after the data came out, but now both are down near 1%. Still hold DUST calls and SLV puts and may look for more if I see some follow through today, or this could just be another head fake as both commods continue to play see-saw.

 

Added GOOG , CF , and BIDU calls yesterday and will keep it small again today.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes for today:

 

BLK BlackRock downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup

Citigroup downgraded BlackRock citing valuation and keeps a $285 price target for shares.

DTV DirecTV price target raised to $70 from $60 at Jefferies

Jefferies raised its price target for DirecTV citing the company's solid Q1 results and maintains a Buy rating on the stock.

TSLA Tesla downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman

Goldman downgraded Tesla citing valuation and a more balanced risk/reward following the company's Q1 results. The firm has a $61 price target for shares.

TSLA Tesla price target raised to $72 from $65 at Barclays

Barclays said remains positive on Tesla's luxury market strategy and said the company is making "clear improvements" in manufacturing efficiency. Shares are Overweight rated.

RAX Rackspace downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital

RBC Capital downgraded Rackspace following the disappointing Q1 results and outlook. Price target lowered to $40 from $63.

SBUX Starbucks channel volume to reaccelerate, says Bernstein

Bernstein expects the volume growth of Starbucks' channel products to reaccelerate as a result of lower prices and stepped up innovation. The firm thinks that the company has significant longer term growth opportunities in China, and it keeps a $72 price target and Outperform rating on the shares.

GRPN Groupon price target raised to $9 from $7 at Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray believes Groupon's March quarter results provides optimism that the company has a long-term business. Piper raised its price target for shares to $9 and keeps an Overweight rating on the stock.

RL Ralph Lauren Q4 results may bring buying opportunity, says Citigroup

Citigroup thinks Ralph Lauren shares could see pressure following the company's Q4 results on May 23 since its investments could weigh on FY14 guidance. Citi lowered its FY14 earnings estimate for Ralph Lauren to $9.10 from $9.40 but says it would use any post-earnings share pullback as a buying opportunity. The firm reiterates a Buy rating on the stock with a $204 price target.

GMCR Green Mountain price target raised to $90 from $65 at SunTrust

SunTrust raised Green Mountain (GMCR) estimates following the solid Q2 report and the new 5-yr agreement with Starbucks (SBUX). The firm said the extended Starbucks agreement to take Keurig internationally should remove concerns that Starbucks is a competitor and the Vue platform. Shares are Buy rated.

GMCR Green Mountain price target raised to $95 from $67 at Lazard Capital

Lazard Capital raised its price target for Green Mountain following the company's better than expected Q2 results and expanded partnership with Starbucks. The firm says Green Mountain's margin turnaround is materializing sooner than expected and that innovation is returning to the company. Lazard Capital keeps a Buy rating on the stock.

MNST Monster Beverage long-term outlook still favorable, says Stifel

After Monster reported lower than expected Q1 EPS, Stifel thinks the miss was at least partly due to timing. The firm still sees several positive signs for the company, including strong international growth, maintenance of share gains in the U.S., and relatively strong sales of energy drinks in the U.S. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the stock.

 

 

Here are two trades UPB is looking at from last night: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/two-trade-ideas-for-tomorrow-thursday-may-8th/

 

I still like WU and BPT for breaks above $16 and $85 respectively. I also like FOSL to break and hold $110+ in the next day or two. BIDU had some nice acquisition news on Tuesday and I think that is the type that will provide a catalyst for shares to break above $95 or so. Here is the triple top breakout chart : http://stocktwits.com/message/13454642

 

I may look to add some BIDU calls for next week at the open, and will finally grab my PCLN position I have been trying to get before todays close:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
PCLN CALL $845.00 May 18th 0.65 0.50
BIDU CALL $100.00 May 18th 0.20 0.20

 

 

Dont forget about the LeeMalone Webinar after the close at 4:30 : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/option-strategies-with-leemalone-gold-and-above/

 

Lets have another great day!

 

- JB

Two Trade Ideas For Tomorrow Thursday May 8th

I have two trades I am looking at for tomorrow.

The market closed yet again at all time highs.  Will it ever pull back?  I have a two stocks I think will pull back to close the week and offer the chance to profit on downside.  Profit and downside?  Those are two words that don't quite go together in this centrally planned stock market.  However a well timed put play can be very profitable and that is the goal with two trades I am looking to open tomorrow.

In each case I will be looking to enter these trades within an hour of the open.  I will let you know if I end up in any of these trades.

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$FCX.  The stock has bounced admirably from its long term neck line support.  It has come up to a shorter term resisitance line which should offer the first good chance at a pull back heading into weeks end.  I like the $32 weekly puts they closed at $.16

 

Trade Idea: $FCX $32 weekly puts $.16

 

fcx2

fcx1

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$BA.  Boeing has broken out of a channel to the upside, recently hitting new highs.  The stock is due for a breather, and the put contracts offer a great risk/reward price.

Trade Idea: $BA $92.50 weekly puts $.10.  I am looking for a pull back to ~$92 before the stock makes its next move to triple digits.

 

ba1