For Silver Members and Above

To view this post you must be a Silver Level Member or above.

3-26-13 Watchlist

Stocks fell yesterday as Cyprus reached a last minute deal to avert disaster. Haven't we heard this story before? Bailouts, disaster, market turmoil, Eurozone exit, fiscal cliff, the sequester, the list grows each year, and yet here we sit only points away from an all time high on the S&P 500. The bears have been calling for a collapse each step along the way... how has that worked out for them so far? I've been saying it for many moons now, don't fight the trend, and stated well over a year ago that we'd break through to all time highs. We have already hit new all time highs for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and small cap stocks, next up is the S&P500. It is coming and with the bears salivating after the recent dip, I am that much more confident it is coming soon. BTFD, QE, sell the VIX, we trade in a market that is being manipulated. Central banks that have one purpose and an unlimited credit card. Fight them at your own peril. I think we can all agree that the longer term picture is not bright, and there will be a time to be playing for downside. Declines are buying opportunities. Dips are to be bought, its worked since the 2009 lows and until it stops working that is the way to trade this market.

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2012/qe-to-infinity-and-beyond/

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2012/btfd/

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2012/the-fix-is-in/

REMINDER: This is a holiday shortened week with only three trading days left. I would be surprised to see a big move in either direction this week and remain cautious toward opening many short term option positions.

Some upgrades/downgrades/rumors/comments today:

Netflix price target raised to $225 from $160 at Pacific Crest
Pacific Crest raised its price target for Netflix citing increased margin and subscriber assumptions. The firm expects Netflix's information advantage and content spending to drive subscriber growth and recommends owning the stock with an Outperform rating.

Apple likely to be hurt in near-term by refresh rumors, says Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer believes that consumers will likely hold off buying new iPhones and iPads due to rumors about the launch of new devices this summer. The firm believes that Apple may miss consensus estimates for its March and June quarters, and it expects the stock to remain range bound over the near-term. But Oppenheimer remains upbeat about the company's long-term outlook and keeps an Outperform rating on the stock.

Apple June guidance likely to miss consensus, says Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray believes the risk/reward to owning Apple shares is favorable, but thinks the consensus estimates are too high for the March and June quarters. Piper expects Apple to report March quarter results within the company's guidance, but below consensus, while issuing an outlook for the June quarter below expectations. Nonetheless, Piper thinks product announcements should reaccelerate Apple’s earnings growth from a negative 14% in the first half of 2013 to a positive 15% in the back half. The firm reiterates an Overweight rating on Apple shares with a $767 price target.

Caterpillar price target lowered to $109 from $118 at Susquehanna
Susquehanna lowered its price target on Caterpillar to reflect lowered estimates from its Resource Industries company. The firm expects shares to be range bound in the near-term until confidence improves on a bottoming of capital expenditures of mining. Shares are Positive rated.

S&P 500 price target raised to 1760 from 1650 at Canaccord
Canaccord raised its 2013 S&P 500 target to 1760 from 1650 due to reduced signs of systemic risk, better than expected economic and earnings trends, and reduced valuation constraints. The firm now continues to expect 2013 operating earnings of $110 and raised its multiple to 16x from 15x.

TRIP
TripAdvisor price target raised to $58 from $50 at Stifel
Stifel believes that TripAdvisor has a massive traffic advantage and provides unique utility to travel planners, while the company has opportunities in reviews, data collection and marketing. The firm maintains a Buy rating on the stock.

EA
Electronic Arts upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray upgraded Electronic Arts citing the company's CEO transition and margin expansion opportunities. The firm raised its price target for shares to $23 from $20. :thefly

EBAY
eBay shares should keep working in intermediate term, says Cantor
Cantor believes that sustained growth of Marketplaces and traction with PayPal should enable eBay's stock to perform well over the intermediate term. The firm maintains a $56 price target and Buy rating on the shares.

I remain a buyer of BIDU calls and think the stock will break over $90 in the short term. I like AAPL to trade over $500 soon and continue to defy all the analysts who continue to speak negatively of the stock. I was waiting for a bounce for $HLF before trading the puts. It was a great profit the last time to the downside. I may have missed my chance but will watch for reentry. EBAY should get a decent bounce into the end of the week.

Possible trades I will make for today:

EBAY $52.50 weekly calls last price $.57 looking for entry $.50
BIDU $87.50 and $90 weekly calls $.26 and $.05
NFLX $190 weekly calls $.45

3-20-2013 Watchlist

 

The BEARS came out of their caves yesterday to shake the tree, as the ISLAND (Cyprus), continued to give folks a reason to take profits. The market did ramp at the end of the day, and the DOW was able to close green. Right now futures are up nearly .50%, and there are now  rumors of the Russians working out a deal to help Cyprus. We do have the Fed announcement at 2pm, that may move markets. The FED already has their cards on the table, so would think the announcement maybe a somewhat non-event, but you never know.

FEDEX reported some cruddy numbers this morning, and is down a few bucks pre-market. ADBE beat estimates last night, and is rallying pre-market.

We have earnings from Oracle and JBL after hours. Will be watching both but will probably just play JBL calls.

 

Here are the analyst changes today:

 

AAPL Apple price target lowered to $600 from $650 at Canaccord

Canaccord lowered Apple's price target to $600 from $650 to reflect an iPhone 5S refresh this summer or during Q3 vs. previous expectations for a launch in June. The firm believes Apple could lose smartphone share in 1H 2013 due to recently launched high-end Android smartphones and has reduced its Q3 estimates. The firm believes earnings will accelerate in the September quarter and maintains its Buy rating

CRM Salesforce.com initiated with an Outperform at FBN Securities

Target $210.

VMW VMware initiated with an Outperform at FBN Securities

Target $86.

RAX Rackspace initiated with a Sector Perform at FBN Securities

Target $55.

BBRY BlackBerry upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley upgraded BlackBerry two notches to Overweight from Underweight based on expanding gross margin and ASP expectations driven by the mix-shift to BB10 devices from BB6 and BB7 devices. The firm now believes there may be room for niche mid-range companies in the handset market and notes LG and Samsung may be seeking alternate OS strategies. Price target raised to $22 from $10

DE Deere downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo downgraded Deere to Underperform citing its bearish outlook for 2014 and 2015 U.S. large farm equipment demand and anticipated commodity price declines. The firm lowered its price target range for shares to $72-$75 from $90-$93

 

Still love $SAM and it broke out of it’s triple top yesterday. I think the stock goes $170+ in short order now. Tons of folks calling for a pullback on that one since $140, and they continue to pop in calling for a short, confirming my bullish stance. I currently have 170/180 April calls and may add some more 180s today. I still have FFIV, AAPL, CRM, ISRG, and NFLX calls.

 

Our FFIV 92.50 weekly calls trade was alerted via text yesterday. I will hold my calls until it breaks $92+, then lock some in for a double. Will be watching for $88 level to exit position.

 

Only looking to get some JBL calls and possibly some WYNN calls if it show signs of breaking $122 today:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
JBL CALL $20.00 April 0.45 0.45
WYNN CALL $125.00 Weekly 0.10 0.10

 

 

Happy trading folks!

 

- JB

2-8-2013 Watchlist

 

 

Today brings and end to the first possible red week in 2013. Yesterday was another classic buy the dip, as the market rallied once again from an early sell-off to close almost green.

AAPL spiked at the end of the day as it sounds like they are possibly working on returning some more value to shareholders via dividends/buybacks.. ect. CSTR lowered guidance and the stock is off $4 pre-market. LNKD beat big on rev and EPS and numbers exceeded already lofty expectations. The stock is up 11% PM and has numerous upgrades all $150 and above. OPEN also reported some nice numbers after the close, so maybe one to watch at the open as it’s a quiet PM trader.

 

China Export/Import #s were up much more then expected, and should help the continued case around China’s economy moving back in the right direction. US export numbers also out this morning that were way above expectations, which is a very good sign even with a solid USD.

 

Below are some of the analyst changes :

 

(LNKD)

LinkedIn price target raised to $163 from $142 at JPMorgan

JPMorgan says LinkedIn reported strong Q4 results and issued a solid outlook for 2013. The firm believes the company is operating extremely well and raised its price target for shares to $163 while reiterating an Overweight rating on the stock.

LinkedIn price target raised to $150 from $130 at BofA/Merrill

Shares are Buy rated.

LinkedIn price target raised to $150 from $135 at Citigroup

Citigroup says LinkedIn's fundamentals remain impressive following the company's better than expected Q4 results. The firm upped its price target for shares to $150 and reiterates a Buy rating on the stock.

(LNKD)

LinkedIn upgraded to Buy from Outperform at CLSA

CLSA upgraded Linkedin given the strong quarter, improving operating leverage, and EBITDA margin expansion. Price target raised to $161 from $131.

LinkedIn price target raised to $176 from $150 at Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray raised its price target for LinkedIn following the company's Q4 results and keeps an Overweight rating on the stock. Piper thinks LinkedIn remains in the early stages of monetizing its professional network asset and says the company can continue to grow in the mid-double digit range for at least the next three years.

Google added to Best Ideas List at Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley added Google to its Best Idea List given increasing free cash flow, consistent execution, and innovation opportunities. Shares are Overweight rated with a $932 price target.

 

Here are the strikes i am looking at today:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration
LNKD CALL $145.00 Weekly
GOOG CALL $790.00 Weekly
NFLX CALL $185.00 Weekly
AAPL CALL $480.00 Weekly

 

 

 

GOOG was put on Morgan Stanleys best idea list with $923 TGT so may move nice at the open. Will be looking for 785/790 weekly lotto calls. Will also be watching LNKD and may try some lotto 140/145 weeklies if it holds the morning fade.

AAPL may show continued strength so may try for 480s as well as trying to time NFLX if it shows support.

 

Lets end the week in style. We will be having our week ahead Sunday 10:30pm eastern so be ready for that. And for those in the track of the storm like myself, be safe and smart!

 

Happy Trading!

 

- Jimmybob

2-7-2013 Watchlist

 

 

It was a buy the f&^&^ dip yesterday, right down to the closing bell as the market squeezed out a gain, after being down .5%+ early in the morning. The higher we go, the more folks will be calling a top. Time will tell, but i still think we are a few months off from that. The  Bank of England Governor in waiting was doing some testimony today that helped prop the pound and boost futures. There are also notes and comments out from the ECB so may move markets a little. Same store sales numbers come out for january on retailers, so keep an eye on Macy's, JCP, Kohls, and others. Once again, I think the path of least resistance is up, and the VIX will be under $10 very soon.

 

We have earnings tonight with LNKD and CSTR being the headliners. Those will be the ones on the watchlist. DDD was great yesterday and looks good this morning making up for the PCLN and GMCR calls.

 

Here are some analyst changes this morning:

 

Green Mountain margins offset slower sales growth, says Lazard Capital

Lazard Capital says Green Mountain's better than expected margins in Q1 more than offset the company's slightly lower sales growth. The firm raised its price target for shares to $58 from $56 and keeps a Buy rating on the stock

 

Yelp price target raised to $27 from $24 at Cantor

Cantor increased its price target on Yelp after the company reported Q4 results that the firm views as strong. The firm sees several upcoming positive catalysts for the stock and maintains a Buy rating.

 

Goldman Sachs well-positioned, says Bernstein

After meeting with Goldman Sachs' CFO, Bernstein reports that the CFO is "cautiously optimistic about the 2013 operating environment." Bernstein is more optimistic about Goldman's outlook, as the firm thinks that the company is leveraged to an early stage rebound. Bernstein maintains a $170 price target and Outperform rating on the stock.

 

Visa downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo downgraded Visa citing valuation following the company's Q1 results. The firm raised its price target range for shares to $160-$165 from $150-$155.

 

BlackBerry upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo upgraded BlackBerry after transferring analyst coverage on expectations the company's gross margin will improve as BB10 device sales ramp. Wells says BlackBerry shares have generally trended in the direction of gross margin. The firm raised its price target range for shares to $19-$20 from $11-$13.

 

I plan on looking for some FEB 16th calls for LNKD as well as some FEB 16th from CSTR. I may play NFLX calls as well betting on a move higher if CSTR smashes.

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
LNKD CALL $150.00 FEB 16th 0.28 0.25
LNKD CALL $155.00 FEB 16th 0.14 0.10
CSTR CALL $62.50 Feb 16th 0.45 0.40

 

 

Lets have a great day!!

 

- Jimmybob

2-6-2013 Watchlist

 

Two big up days, one big down day past three sessions. Everyone and his brother, sister, mother, father, friends, and anyone else with a mouse/pen/blog are calling for some type of pullback soon. Some say its the huge insider selling recently... well duh stocks are at 5 year highs.( http://www.marketwatch.com/story/insiders-now-aggressively-bearish-2013-02-06?dist=beforebell ) Some say its the triple top coming from 2007 and 2000 highs. Other say its overall bullish sentiment of the market. Talks of Europe are starting to get back into the headlines with Spain corruption issues and more problems in Italy. 10yr bond yields have spike the last few sessions and folks are thinking we may have the same pullback we had in 2011/2012 in March. Gosh, sounds to me like its time to go puts... wouldn’t it. But once again, its the same old tune, and we saw how it worked out everytime since march of 2009.

 

This market will not go down until all the sheep are on the corral, with the gate shut, and all the herders out of the corral counting their loot. The VIX crossed the upper bollie on monday, and as I spoke about on the last week ahead webinar, the market reversed.

 

Futures have slipped this morning, and we shall see if we are in for another 3 digit move in the DOW. Its possible, but I think the trend will still be higher.

 

Nice earnings by EXPE yesterday, but it’s not moving the stock as much as I would like. I still think it will see over 70 today, and like PCLN to get over $710. DDD announced a 3 for 2 stock split which should help squeeze some shorts. We grabbed the 70 Feb 16th calls yesterday and may look to add some higher strikes.

 

CMG is getting positive comments from analysts but is down a few dollars pre-market.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes this morning:

 

 

 

Chipotle price target raised to $334 from $318 at Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray said it remains confident in Chipotle's long-term growth profile following the company's Q4 results. The firm keeps an Overweight rating on the stock.

 

McGraw-Hill upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James

Raymond James upgraded McGraw Hill citing valuation and views legal headlines as only noise and sees no risk to the business. Price target remains $62.

Expedia gaining market share in hotel bookings, says Cantor

After Expedia reported stronger than expected Q4 results, Cantor believes that room night growth acceleration should help the company achieve healthy double digit revenue growth in the near and medium term. The firm raised its price target on the stock to $77 from $70 and reiterates a Buy rating.

Expedia downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital

RBC Capital downgraded Expedia given peak valuation and fundamentals following the Q4 report. Price target raised to $73 from $70.

Expedia price target raised to $80 from $67 at Benchmark Co.

Benchmark Co. raised its price target for Expedia citing the company's strong Q4 results and keeps a Buy rating on the stock. The firm believes investors should be willing to accept near-term margin compression from higher spending for an anticipated increase in global market penetration and keeps a Buy rating on the stock.

Expedia price target raised to $80 from $70 at Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank notes Expedia posted its highest hotel room night growth rate in several years in Q4. The firm raised its price target for shares to $80 following the results and says Expedia remains its preferred online travel agency stock.

 

Here is what I am looking at for the open:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
DDD CALL $70.00 Weekly 0.20 0.30
DDD CALL $75.00 FEB 16th 0.20 0.20
GMCR CALL $65.00 Feb 16th 0.27 0.25

 

 

Stay tuned to chat and twitter for any updates to my trades. Lets have a great day!

 

- Jimmybob