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August 1st, 2013 Watch List

 

 

Three days into the trading week and the market is nearly unchanged despite some more volatility. The Fed statement eased concerns a bit on the taper, and the market ramped right near all-time highs, only to fade into the close. China data and comments from the ECB and UK central banks this morning have added to gains in the futures, and the market looks poised to gap above all-time highs with the SPY right near the $170 level.

Earnings continue to steal the show with some more big reports from YELP and SAM boosting shares pre-market. Shutterfly reported as well after hours, with a mixed bag of results so may trade flat today. CTRP reported earnings yesterday that have propelled the stock over 14% pre-market and should help bid up BIDU and SINA.

Still like OPEN here and will try and add to my 75 calls at the open. The stock is getting some attention from the YELP earnings. Will also look to play a flip on LNKD. Already have some AUG 17th 270 calls and may add some more at the open for some premium build.

 

Here is a great pre-market video from UPB : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/upb-pre-market-video-812013/

 

 

Tons of analyst changes out there today, here are a few that caught my eye:

 

 

GPS Gap added to Top Picks List at FBR Capital
FBR Capital added Gap to its Top Picks List after initiating coverage of the stock with an Outperform rating. FBR believes Gap is driving margin improvement and has growth opportunities with new U.S. formats and international expansion

 

 

SODA SodaStream growth unlikely to accelerate significantly in 2H13, says Oppenheimer
After SodaStream reported stronger than expected Q2 results and raised its guidance, Oppenheimer doesn't expect the company's sales growth to accelerate significantly in 2H13. The firm notes that the company's growth slowed in Q2 and it keeps a Perform rating on the stock

 

YELP Yelp price target raised to $49 from $30 at Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer increased its target on Yelp after the company reported stronger than expected Q2 results and provided stronger than expected full-year guidance. The firm keeps a Perform rating due to valuation

 

TRLA Trulia price target raised to $48 from $40 at Needham
Needham raised its price target for Trulia following the company's Q2 results and reiterates a Buy rating on the stock

 

CBS CBS price target raised to $65 from $48 at Needham
Needham raised its price target for CBS following the company's Q2 results and keeps a Buy rating on the stock

 

CTRP Ctrip.com price target raised to $55 from $34 at Brean Capital
Brean Capital raised its price target on Ctrip.com and believes the company is poised to benefit from robust leisure travel growth and fast penetration from offline to online. The firm views Ctrip.com as the most valuable strategic asset in China's online travel industry. Shares are Buy rated

 

MA MasterCard price target raised to $707 from $608 at RBC Capital
RBC Capital increased its price target on MasterCard after the company reported stronger than expected Q2 results. The firm thinks the company's results were very strong, and it was encouraged by the company's statement that the macro economy is improving. RBC Capital keeps an Outperform rating on the shares

 

 

Comcast reported solid Q2 results, says RBC Capital
RBC Capital says that Comcast's cable and NBC businesses both performed better than expected in Q2. The firm thinks that NBC's results were solid, and it raised its price target on Comcast to $50 from $46. The firm keeps an Outperform rating on the shares

 

AMZN Amazon.com price target raised to $375 from $350 at Bernstein
Bernstein believes Amazon Prime is an important long-term strategy that increases wallet shares and average ticket size. The firm believes there are 25M Prime subscribers globally and account for a vast majority of shipping revenues. Shares are Outperform rated

 

 

 

Will be looking at three plays after the bell: WTW, OPEN, and LNKD. Still a bull on LNKD and think its the best of breed in social media stocks. Considering YELP and FB earnings, figure LNKD continues its unblemished earnings record and beats estimates and hopefully raises guidance. Will try for more premium build and sell half before the close. Already have calls on WTW and OPEN and will try for a few more. Both are risky earning plays, as any earnings play can be.

 

Here are the strikes I am looking at:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
WTW CALL $55.00 AUG 0.45 0.40
OPEN CALL $72.50 AUG 0.55 0.50
LNKD CALL $270.00 AUG 0.36 0.35

 

 

Lets have a great day!!

 

See you tomorrow at record highs! (hopefully)

 

- JB

July 31, 2013 Watch List

 

 

Two red days to start the week on the SPY, despite a promising open yesterday. Today we find futures flat with ADP numbers out, as we look forward to the Fed meeting and July Jobs numbers on Friday.

Earnings reports continue to steal the headlines. This morning we had SODA report another great quarter with raised guidance which has the stock up 8% pre-market. SODA typically gets faded any good earnings report, so hoping the FAD case that usually emboldens the bears, is a non-issue this time around. MA also reported another great Q and the stock is up 3% pre-market. I figured folks would use earnings as an oppty to lock soe profits before taking her to new all-time highs, but looks like thats not the case.

 

After hours today we have SAM, and I will try once again to get a position into earnings. Also like SINA again here and did add some $72.50 lotto calls, and may try for some more positions. GOOG finally showed some promise yesterday and would like to see the 900 level breached today as well as AAPL heading over 457.

 

Here are the analyst changes for today:

 

 

BUD AB InBev upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord :theflyo

 

KORS Michael Kors is a Top Pick into earnings, says Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley expects Michael Kors Q1 report on August 6 to drive shares higher. The firm expects 48c earnings and 20% same-store-sales growth indicated by strong sell through, strong wholesale channel sales, beatable margin expectations, and increasing Google searches for products. The firm believes Michael Kors offers the best long-term earnings potential and reiterates its Overweight rating and $74 price targe

 

QCOR Questcor price target raised to $73 from $57 at Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer increased its target on Questcor after the company reported higher than expected Q2 revenue. The firm believes that sales of the company's Acthar treatment continue to be strong. Oppenheimer remains upbeat on Acthar's outlook and keeps an Outperform rating on the stock

 

MAKO MAKO Surgical price target raised to $26 from $23 at Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray believes MAKO Surgical's Q2 results bring the company closer to restoring investor confidence. Piper said robot sales topped expectations while procedures were in line. The firm raised its price target for shares to $26 and reiterates an Overweight rating on the stock

 

POT Potash downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
UBS downgraded Potash citing industry volume uncertainty following Uralkali's exit from the Balarusian cartel. Price target lowered to $33 from $43

 

  SNDK SanDisk downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital
BMO Capital downgraded SanDisk to reflect a NAND supply-demand balance that is tilted towards excess supply. Price target lowered to $40 from $59

 

COH Coach price target lowered to $50 from $55 at Buckingham
Buckingham expects Neutral rated Coach (COH) to be range-bound given lack of catalysts and increased execution risk. The analyst recommends reducing positions and rotating into Buy rated Michael Kors (KORS)

 

 

Still love SAM for the close today, love OPEN and SFLY tomorrow, and will hold my LNKD calls until near the close tomorrow. Will look to add more SINA today and try again for a position in SAM. I will not pay the ask and put the order in and hope for a fill. Always other trades so be patient!!

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
SAM CALL $210.00 Sept 1.30 0.85
SINA CALL $80.00 Aug 0.54 0.50

 

 

 

Lets have a great day!

 

- JB

July 30th, 2013 Watch List

 

Futures were red yesterday and the market continued to fade in the morning, following Europe and Japan’s lead. The typical ‘buy the dip’ came later in the day, but was not enough to get a green close. There were some nice movers during the day, with AAPL finally gaining traction and CF getting a boost from a hedge fund taking a stake.

This morning we find futures solidly green as Asia and Europe were up overnight.

 

We had a few earnings reports the past 12 hours, with HLF stealing the show. DDD reported earnings this morning that missed on EPS but met revenue expectations and reiterated a nice outlook. The stock is down pre-market, along with other 3-d stocks. Think this could be a nice buying oppty down the line so will be watching. COH is down pre-market after meeting EPS but missing revenue as well as announcing a product line sale. Will be staying away from that one for now.

 

SODA was alerted as one of my favorite trade ideas this week for the weekly 67.50 calls. I bought some @ .50 and still like it today for a break above 60. It is very risky, as SODA reports earnings tomorrow so if you follow my position please exercise caution and understand SODA could open at $50 tomorrow after earnings and the calls will be worthless.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes for today:

 

Wunderlich maintains LinkedIn Corporation (NYSE: LNKD) with a Buy and raises the price target from $205.00 to $225.00

 

SPWR SunPower price target raised to $33 from $24 at RW Baird
Baird raised its price target on SunPower to reflect higher than expected ASP's, strong demand in Japan, and solid demand across all customer classes in the US. Shares are Outperform rated

 

 

POT MOS - Many investors to sell potash producers, says BMO Capital
BMO Capital expects the decision by large Russian potash producer Uralkali to change its strategy to volume-over-price to cause a decline of about $100 per ton in potash prices. The firm thinks that many investors will react by selling shares of potash producers Potash (POT), Mosaic (MOS), Agrium (AGU), Compass Minerals (CMP), Intrepid Potash (IPI), and Sociedad Quimica (SQM). The firm expects the stocks to decline, and it keeps a Market Perform rating on the fertilizer sector

 

HLF Herbalife price target raised to $72 from $65 at SunTrust
SunTrust raised its estimates and price target for Herbalife citing the company's strong Q2 results and upbeat guidance. The firm said it is encouraged by the company's fundamental business strength and keeps a Buy rating on the stock

 

PCLN priceline.com price target raised to $1,034 from $850 at Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray expects priceline.com to report solid Q2 results on August 8 as its evidence suggests the company continues to gain market share. Piper upped its price target for shares to $1,034 and keeps an Overweight rating on the stock

 

QIHU Qihoo 360 price target raised to $72 from $48 at Maxim
Maxim raised its price target for Qihoo 360 citing the company's earnings growth potential and a good chance of success for an acquisition of Sogou. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the stock

 

OPEN OpenTable downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie
Macquarie downgraded OpenTable due to valuation, increased competition, and lack of visibility into a North American seated diner growth. Price target remains $59

 

 

 

Will be keeping it small today. I think UPB is right on track with AAPl and a break above $450 today means $500 will be coming soon. Will try for some AAPL calls. Also, like WYNN earnings yesterday and think folks had a night to digest, and will bid the stock up today. One of the analysts likes the update on the Cotai project on the conference call and thinks it adds $50 to the stock price, so will try for some weekly calls to play a run into the high 130s.

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
AAPL CALL $470.00 Weekly 0.19 0.19
WYNN CALL $136.00 Weekly 0.26 0.26

 

As always, stay tuned to twitter and the chat for updates and lets have a great day!

 

- JB

July 29th, 2013 Watch List

 

 

The Market traded in a minuscule 1.4% range the past week. Considering an option trader wants to see some moves, this is not the type of trading action that would be conducive to making profits. But earnings season continues to provide some nice money making opportunities, and hope the trend continues this week.

Tons of earnings on deck this week , you can get a preview and some ideas from these two videos by UPB:

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/upb-earnings-video-part-ii-bwld-bxp-afl-bud-ma-soda-sam-ctrp-met-sfly-yelp-lnkd/

 

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/earnings-coverage-7-297-30-upb-wynn-spg-czr-hlf-mtw-ddd-coh-call-osk-wu/

 

I also spoke about the earnings I like this week and the market in the Week Ahead Webinar last night for those that missed:

https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/469-The-Week-Ahead-with-UPB-and-JB-7-28-2013

 

 

We have the Fed Meeting this week, as well as the July jobs numbers, both items could be market movers. With Big Ben nearing his exit, it would be hard to think he will not try his best to keep markets ramping into uncharted territory, meaning i dont think much will come out of the meetings this week. Folks expect 190k jobs added in July and expect the unemployment number to drop to 7.5% from 7.6%. Again, dont think this will have a major impact on the markets one way or the other if things go as planned, and we can continue on our move over $170 on the SPY.

 

Not too many analyst changes out to start the week, here are a few that stood out:

 

 

BIDU Baidu named a long Research Tactical Idea at Morgan Stanley

 

DISH DISH shares may be rising for the wrong reasons, say Brean Capital
Brean Capital notes DISH shares have risen on speculation of industry consolidation. The firm does not believe any of the speculative outcomes and notes the CEO is intent on transforming the service profile of the network by constructing a two-way hybrid Satellite-LTE platform resulting in the potential for a better strategic arrangement with T-Mobile. Shares are Buy rated and price target increased to $49 from $45

 

 

DTV DirecTV price target raised to $74 from $68 at Brean Capital
Brean Capital raised its price target on DirecTV despite the potential to report a weak quarter. the firm believes however the company has the best fundamental return story in the industry citing its benefits from lower capital intensity than the Master System Operator and its aggressive capital return strategy. Shares are Buy rated

 

 

ONXX Onyx Pharmaceuticals downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at RW Baird
Baird downgraded Onyx based on valuation. Price target is $129

 

EXPE Expedia downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Lazard Capital
Lazard Capital downgraded Expedia citing less confidence in the company's ability to maintain double digit bookings growth following its Q2 results

 

MAKO MAKO Surgical survey showed solid utilization, says Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray said its survey of 48 existing MAKO Surgical sites indicated solid utilization and satisfaction with the Rio robotic arm surgical system. Piper said it remains a buyer of MAKO shares ahead of the company's Q2 results. The firm has an Overweight rating on the stock with a $23 price target

 

 

ISRG raised its buyback program, with 500 million to be accelerated : http://www.streetinsider.com/Hot+Buybacks/Intuitive+Surgical+%28ISRG%29+Raises+Buyback+Plan+to+%241.5B%2C+%24500M+Accelerated/8539636.html Shares are up pre-market but will watch for $400 break. As talked about in the week ahead, will be looking for entries in SODA, LNKD, and SAM for earnings with the hope of the stocks rallying along with premiums, so I can lock some/all in before earnings.

 

Here are the strikes I am watching this morning:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
SODA CALL $67.50 Weekly .20 x .40 0.35
LNKD CALL $270.00 August 0.46 0.45
SAM CALL $210.00 Sept 1.30 0.75

 

 

Will be watching ISRG, WYNN, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG and others for possible entry as well today.

 

Lets have another great week!!

 

- JB