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UPB Market recap

Big day today for a lot of stocks. $TSLA fell off a cliff. We have earnings coming out from some big names as the week comes to a close. $CMG, $ISRG. $GOOG after the bell on Thursday should be fun. How about $YHOO?

This week really starts the earnings season. Here is my market recap for today 7/16/2013

July 16th, 2013 Watch List


Another sessions, another all-time high. Brings me back to the rally in April and May where everyday was a new high for the markets. It surely looks like the trend could continue today, but it will have to happen despite most of the global markets red overnight.


Earnings season is really starting to kick into high gear with GS, KO, MOS, JNJ, and others reporting today. Earnings are complete lottos so tread carefully, but there is always the possibility of a large move that can make an option position increase 10x-50x fold overnight. Not sure we have any this week, but will try to dabble in TZOO, WHR, and GOOG.


Issued a Text Trade Idea yesterday on TZOO, here is the update :


Folks are asking if I will hold my TZOO calls through earnings. Knowing what a stock is going to do through earnings is a complete crapshoot, so if your risk tolerance is not high, and you are up, lock some or all in. I will most likely lock a few in and hold the rest through earnings. I may also look for some higher September strikes.


BIDU announced an acquisition last night and the stock is up over 6% pre-market, which should bode well for anyone who went in the 105 calls with me yesterday. Folks are asking me what I plan to do with the calls. I only have 8 , and think BIDU goes over $110 now, so will hold for that moment. Again, if your up big and dont have the same risk tolerance i have, it would make sense to lock some in.


Here are some of the analyst changes today:



DECK Deckers Outdoor should deliver beat and raise results, says Sterne Agee
Sterne Agee expects Deckers to report modestly better than expected Q2 results, and raise its FY13 guidance. The firm expects the stock to perform well and it reiterates a Buy rating



GOOG Google price target raised to $1030 from $875 at Raymond James
Raymond James said Google's Q2 search spend growth remained strong and expects it to continue in 2H 2013 given higher mobile revenue from its new Enhanced Campaigns product and Product Listing Ads adoption. Shares are Outperform rated


DFS Discover downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
JPMorgan downgraded Discover citing valuation but raised its price target for shares to $54 from $50


LNKD LinkedIn initiated with a Neutral at SunTrust
Target $215


BIDU Baidu price target raised to $115 from $91 at Jefferies
Jefferies raised its price target for Baidu saying the company's 91 Wireless acquisition is positive for its mobile Internet positioning and mobile game monetization. The firm reiterates a Hold rating on the stock


GM General Motors upgraded to Conviction Buy from Buy at Goldman
Goldman added General Motors (GM) to the Conviction Buy List due to strong near-term catalysts, and inflection in 2H 2013 margins driven by North American trucks, and a potential common dividend by the end of the year. Price target is $$5. Note that Goldman removed Ford (F) from the Conviction Buy List


YUM Yum! Brands initiated with a Buy at Stifel
Target $105


BIDU Baidu upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup
Citigroup upgraded Baidu to Neutral saying the 91 Wireless acquisition is a positive step towards the company monetizing mobile internet. Citi raised its price target for shares to $113 from $80


DKS Concerns over Dick's Sporting promotions unfounded, says Sterne Agee
Sterne Agee believes that recent concerns over Dick's Sporting's promotions are unfounded, as the firm reports that the company's current clearance activity is not unusual for July. The firm keeps a $58 price target and Buy rating on the stock



LeeMalone will be doing some more Webinars over the next two weeks, sign up here :


They will also be recorded and in the forum the day after.


Will be playing small again today. Will try to enter GOOG finally, as well as getting some more TSLA.

Here are the strikes I am watching:



Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
TSLA CALL $140.00 Weekly 0.36 0.35
GOOG CALL $1,040.00 Weekly 0.40 0.40




Lets have another GREAT DAY!


- JB

This Stock Could Rocket Higher After It’s Earnings Report This Week


Earnings season always has its share of stocks that make surprisingly big moves. In April of 2007 $GOOG soared 20% sending the Call options into orbit, with one strike in particular going from $.50 to over $50. $CMG last year offered a great opportunity for the PUT buyers as the stock slumped over $50 in one trading session.

I made a trade yesterday that I think will pay off this earnings season. This trade was based on a chart, which I see resolving to the upside. I think this weeks earnings report will be the spark that sends the stock higher.

The stock is $EBAY. We've seen quite a few charts like the one below. In this uptrending market the majority of these consolidations have resolved higher and I think $EBAY will continue that trend.

I am in the $57.50 calls at $.83 for a move higher post earnings. I think the stock has a great chance at getting over $60 this week.


Our Text Trade Idea for Today


As promised, we will try and send an update on our text trade ideas sometime after they are sent out. Todays Text Trade Idea Was $TZOO 37.50 calls @ .20 x .30. We spoke about TravelZoo on the Week Ahead Webinar last night, and also had the stock on our watch list with the August $35 calls as a possible entry. The stock broke above $30 in quick fashion and never looked back. With plenty of time until August expiry and with the potential for TravelZoo to really take off, we thought the August 37.50 calls offered the best risk vs reward scenario.

Those calls are now asking .80, as the stock has rallied 7.7% on no news. With a $460 million market cap, this stock has the potential to run 10-20% from here before earnings Thursday Pre-market. A risky trader like myself may hold most or all of the calls into earnings, but it may be a smart move to lock some in before earnings, as TravelZoo has disappointed many times in the past.

If the calls get to $1, I will look to lock some in and hold the rest for earnings.

Will try and have an update on the stock as I missed the update on Mellanox(MLNX), and apologize for that.

Happy trading!


- JB

July 15th, 2013 Watch List


If you were watching the markets late June as the SPY broke below $156, you would think there was no chance we would near all-time highs anytime soon as the Bears were coming out of their caves to celebrate victory. Well, here we are,only two weeks later with the markets closing at all-time high levels and look primed to continue the march through the summer.

The high fliers keep going and are up pre-market with TSLA leading the way, followed closely by NFLX. I expect the high beta names to continue to show strength as folks rush back into risk.


If you missed the Week Ahead last night, here is the link :



Citigroup started earnings this week by beating estimates and shares are up pre-market. There are plenty of earnings this week with Thursday being the key day, as GOOG CMG and others report.

Here is UPB’s take on the coming week :


Some nice reads over the weekend. Of course the fun one is the purchase of options by some lucky individual(s) right before the close. Nice catch by UPB again:

LEAP and some curious options purchases:


Here is a great read on ETFs by our resident CMT Chris D:

Nice read on ETF’s by Chris D:


If you didn’t notice, the chat room has some added rooms to help alleviate clutter in the main chat. There are three more rooms:


Top Picks : this is where to post entries and exits

Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades : Self explanatory

News : Where new links go


It will take some time to get these rooms right so please be patient. Please let me know what you think or any ideas you have!


Here are the analyst changes today, and there are a quite a few! :



GOOG Credit Suisse maintains Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) with a Outperform and raises the price target from $982.00 to $1.0K.


NTAP NetApp upgraded at Morgan Stanley
As previously reported, Morgan Stanley upgraded NetApp to Overweight from Equal Weight. The firm's checks indicate storage growth is set to accelerate in 2H 2013 driven by pent-up demand and views NetApp as one of the best plays for a storage budget recovery. Price target is $46


TSLA Tesla price target raised to $230 from $95 at Northland Securities
Northland raised Tesla estimates to reflect success of its leasing product and believes the successful introduction of its Gen 3t will increase its market share to 5% among peers by 2020. Shares are Outperform rated


HOG Harley-Davidson downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Wedbush
Wedbush downgraded Harley-Davidson following recent channel checks that indicate Q2 weather adversely impacted customer traffic in the Midwest and Northeast and longer-term threats from emerging competition from niche brands such as Indian and Moto Guzzi. Price target lowered to $58 from $63


YELP Yelp downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
UBS downgraded Yelp due to valuation. Price target raised to $40 from $32


TIF Tiffany upgraded at Stifel
As previously reported, Stifel upgraded Tiffany to Buy from Hold. The firm upgraded shares due to improved Americas comps, near-term gross margin visibility given falling metals prices, and Tiffany Sparklers, Ziegfeld, and the re-launched Atlas opportunities. Price target is $92


KORS Michael Kors downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray downgraded Michael Kors citing the company's investments to support longer-term growth and less upside to near-term estimates. The firm lowered its price target for shares to $69 from $74


AAPL Apple 5S production scheduled for later this morning, says Jefferies
Jefferies said its channel checks indicate that production of the iPhone 5S, the low cost iPhone, is scheduled to begin later this month. The firm estimates September quarter build plans are likely on the higher-end of its 25M-30M estimate while December quarter build plans are at its 50M-55M estimate. Jefferies views the large build plans as positive, but says the lower cost phone will have negative implications for margins. The firm keeps a Hold rating on Apple shares with a $405 price target


DECK Deckers Outdoor upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray upgraded Deckers Outdoor citing expectations for improved future UGG orders and easing sheepskin prices. Piper raised its price target for shares to $68 from $52


AMZN price target raised to $340 from $310 at Lazard Capital
Lazard Capital raised its price target for citing increased confidence that the company's web services segment will drive margin expansion. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the stock



As discussed last night, will try and enter my three favorite plays for this week, as well as try and catch the next upward leg on TSLA:



Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
WHR CALL $140.00 Weekly 0.25 0.20
GOOG CALL $1,045.00 Weekly 0.45 0.35
TZOO CALL $35.00 August 0.40 0.35
TSLA CALL $145.00 Weekly 0.40 0.40




Lets have a great week!!


- JB