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4-10-2013 Watch List

 

Another green day for Markets yesterday, although they pulled off their highs near the end of the day. Right now futures are higher and we are looking to open above all-time highs on the SPY. China data out last night shows a trade deficit for China for the first time in recent memory, meaning China is importing more then it is exporting... a very good sign and could signal better demand in the country going forward. Whether the cheaper Yen has had that much effect or not is yet to be seen.

Seems the story at the end of last year and start of this year was US economy and Eurozone. Now it seems Japan and China will fuel the next leg of this rally. Still love the SPY until the VIX breaks under $10, then I will start to look at possible pullbacks.

Silver, Gold, and Miners took off yesterday, but I think that is one last gasp before they continue to fall. SLV under 25 is a good play and will look for entry soon.

 

FSLR had an amazing day yesterday, and those in chat were shown the mistake of the month my myself (JB) as I sold FSLR 29.50 calls bought Monday at .26 for .35 yesterday morning. So the 30 contracts I sold for $1050 went for $30k+ a few hours later. Live and learn and just goes to show that you need to stick with your trading plan(which 99% of the time I do!)

 

Here are some of the analyst changes today:

 

 

AGU Agrium downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray downgraded Agrium citing a lack of catalysts following yesterday's proxy vote results. Piper believes the ongoing proxy battle with Jana could weigh on Agrium's valuation and lowered its price target for shares to $105 from $133.

 

 

FSLR First Solar guidance encouraging, but questions remain, says Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank says that while First Solar's above-consensus guidance was encouraging, shares will remain in a trading range pending further evidence of accelerating organic pipeline growth. The firm raised its price target for shares to $34 from $27 and keeps a Hold rating on the stock.

FSLR First Solar rally on guidance looks overdone, says Jefferies

Jefferies says First Solar's above-consensus guidance is largely the result of a revenue pull-in from 2015 due to an accounting change. As such, the firm believes the 45% rally in shares yesterday seems overdone and keeps a Hold rating on the stock. Jefferies thinks First Solar's outlook has not changed radically, but remains positive on the company's long-term positioning

FSLR First Solar rally leaves little room for upside, says Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray raised its price target for First Solar shares to $40 from $28 following the company's better than expected 2013 guidance, but keeps a Neutral rating on the stock. Piper believes yesterday's rally leaves little room for further share upside.

SRPT Sarepta drug still looks best in class, says William Blair

William Blair believes an abstract highlighting Phase II data for GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and Prosensa's drisapersen indicates that Sarepta's (SRPT) eteplirsen remains the best-in-class therapy for the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy. The firm keeps an Outperform rating on shares of Sarepta with a $52 price target. Note shares of Sarepta rallied 11% to $39.85 late yesterday after the abstract was posted.

(IBM IBM upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS

UBS believes IBM is well positioned to be a force as a service provider to private cloud and converged infrastructure and that its hosting capability and support of OpenStack will benefit it in the future. Price target to $235 from $210

NFLX Netflix initiated with an Underweight at Evercore

Target $115.

BIDU Baidu upgraded to Buy from Hold at 86 Research

86 Research changed its view on Baidu to a Buy given favorable risk/reward and mobile search growth over then next five years. The firm believes incremental positive data could drive shares higher and that macro fundamentals have stabilized.

 

Wednesday is premium erosion day so will not look to play much. BBBY reports after the bell and think they may suprise to the upside after dropping the last few quarters. Will nibble some calls. China numbers and BIDU upgrade should help China ADRs so will grab more SINA. There is a disclaimer somewhere on the site saying DO NOT TRADE SINA, as it always seems to lose money. SO PLEASE BE WARY!

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
BBBY CALL $70.00 April 0.44 0.44
BBBY CALL $72.50 April 0.16 0.16
SINA CALL $50.00 Weekly 0.40 0.40

 

 

Lets have a great day today!!!

 

- JB

4-9-2013 Watch List

Yesterdays gap at the open was sold, and the market faded into the red, only to rally and finish solidly in the Green. NFLX and GOOG were weak while AAPL closed green. Some decent moves on the watchlist as CMG continued its move from friday. Shutterfly looked ready to break, but closed below $44.

AA reported decent numbers after the close, but there are still concerns going forward. Don’t think the earnings have a negative impact so will wait for the Banks on friday to give us a little more direction.

JCP CEO Johnson finally out and should bring some volatility to the stock. I wont be playing it but I am sure there will be some trading opportunities there.

 

Most of the talk continues to be the Japan easing program which is having impacts all over the world. There is talk of money coming out of Japan and into some of the higher yield Eurozone bonds like Spain and Italy, which has lowered the yields to yearly lows.

 

Have to figure money will continue to find it’s way into US equities over the coming weeks.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes of note this morning:

 

AZO AutoZone valuation most compelling in group, says BofA/Merrill

BofA/Merrill said AutoZone's valuation is the most compelling in the group and sees commercial market sales as a substantial opportunity. The firm notes AutoZone continues to repurchase a large number of shares and reiterates its Buy rating.

AA Alcoa shares likely to be weighed down by aluminum market, says RBC Capital

After Alcoa reported stronger than expected Q1 results, RBC Capital nevertheless thinks that poor aluminium market fundamentals will continue to weigh on the company's share price and constrain its results. The firm keeps an Underperform rating on the shares.

BIIB Biogen price target raised to $215 from $180 at RBC Capital

RBC Capital expects the launch of Biogen's Tecfidera to be "fine," and the firm expects investors to become more interested in the company's pipeline over the next 12-18 months. The firm thinks the company's pipeline of late-stage candidates is superior to those of its peers, and it maintains an Outperform rating on the shares.

SRPT Sarepta initiated with a Buy at Canaccord

Target $47.

MAKO MAKO Surgical upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Mizuho

Mizuho upgraded MAKO Surgical due to valuation, uni-knees growth, cash position, and achievable estimates. Price target raised to $14.

SSYS Stratasys initiated with a Buy at Canaccord Target $82.

SSTK Shutterstock has 28M share lockup expiration today, says Jefferies

Jefferies notes that around 28M shares of Shutterstock unlock for Tuesday trading. However, the firm estimates that only 2.9M of these shares could come to market due to Rule 144 provisions and blackouts. Jefferies reiterates a Buy rating on Shutterstock and raised its price target for shares to $46 from $35, saying the company's library of images now exceeds 25M, it's most ever.

ISRG Intuitive Surgical initiated with a Buy at WallachBeth Target $610.

Will keep the gameplan very small today. Will look to possible grab some ISRG calls after the open, of the price is right. Two firms out with upgrades today. May also try and play a continued move in WYNN shares, as well as trying to time the NFLX bounce (finally). Will be eyeing BBBY from tomorrow after the close, but will wait until tomorrow, if I do pull the trigger.

Here are the strikes I am watching:

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
ISRG CALL $520.00 Weekly 0.65 0.60
ISRG CALL $525.00 Weekly 0.30 0.30
WYNN CALL $130.00 April 0.30 0.30
NFLX CALL $180.00 weekly 0.32 0.30

 

 

Still like CMG, SFLY, OPEN and SAM here as well.

 

See you in chat and lets have a great day!

 

- JB

4-8-2013 Watch List

 

With Fridays Jobs report out of the way, we can now focus on making new all-time closing highs on the SPY. Well at least thats what I think will happen in the coming weeks. Futures are up this morning, and Europe is solid green. The Nikkei continued its amazing rally, adding another 2%, while the USD/JPY hit 99 over night, an insane move from the 70s in short order.

 

Alcoa kicks off earnings season after the bell, and may give a hint of things to come, although some folks are discounting the impact of Alcoa and saying the ‘earnings are not predictive of the overall performance of the remaining companies ‘: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-to-watch-alcoas-hamstrung-stock-2013-04-07?dist=beforebell

 

I guess we shall see as most of the headlines over the weekend referenced Earnings slowing down the rally as well as ‘Sell in April and go away” as opposed to the more common “Sell in May and go Away’

 

For those that missed it ,The Week Ahead from last night was uploaded in the forum and ready to view: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/383-The-Week-Ahead-with-UPB-and-JB-4-7-2013

 

Not too many analyst changes this morning, which is odd for a Monday. Here is what I found noteworthy:

 

 

Jefferies maintains Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) with a Underperform and raises the price target from $215.00 to $250.00.

Jefferies maintains Panera Bread Company (NASDAQ: PNRA) with a Buy and raises the price target from $190.00 to $202.00.

BBY Best Buy's margin opportunity is significant, says Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse said Best Buy's (BBY) Samsung deal indicates the value add Best Buy brings to the consumer purchasing process and potential for significantly higher gross margins. The firm sees increased pressure on Apple (AAPL) to be more supportive of its in-store shops with Best Buy and reiterates its Outperform and $30 price target.

WFC Banks could see downward earnings revisions, says Susquehanna

Susquehanna believes the banking sector could see downward earnings revisions following Q1 results. The firm is citing a reduction in GOS margins, a slowdown in mortgage volumes, and a the pace of loan growth slowing relative to last quarter.

YUM Yum! Brands estimates reduced due to Avian flu at UBS

UBS reduced its estimates for Yum! Brands to reflect uncertainty as a result of the Avian flu in China. The firm expects lower sales despite reports Chinese consumers reacted less dramatically to each avian flu incident. UBS believes company management will address the flu concerns on its earnings conference call on April 24th. Shares are Neutral rated with a $73 price target.

 

 

 

 

As I spoke about last night, I love BPT, OPEN and SFLY in the coming days. Here is what I wrote on friday for OPEN and BPT : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/two-trades-we-entered-today-with-april-expiration/

 

Will look to add some SFLY calls as well as some CMG calls (possibly). Here are the strikes I am looking at:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
SFLY CALL $45.00 April 0.30 0.30
SFLY CALL $50.00 May 0.30 0.30
CMG CALL $345.00 Weekly 0.40 0.30
BPT CALL $85.00 April 0.25 0.25

 

 

Lets have a great Monday!

 

- JB

4-4-13 Watchlist

 

The market pulled back yesterday as the ADP report missed expectations and folks took the opportunity to lock some profits. Unlike most of these pullbacks, there was limited dip buying until the very end of the day when the SPY jumped back over $155 and closed at $155.23. I guess we will have to wait longer for the SPY to close above the intraday high. This morning we have initial Jobless claims which came in worse then expected and is now at a 4 month high. Whether this is another reason to take profits or not will be seen. Futures dipped after the news and looks like the bright green open will be flat at minimum. Still think we are in a heads bulls win, tails bears lose environment for the next few months or until the unemployment goes under 7%.

Commodities continue to get punished with Gold and SLV buckling. Both should continue a downward spiral, which again raises the question ... where are folks to put their money to get a ROI?

Japan announced some extreme policies to, once again, try to kickstart their economy after years of deflation and slow/negative growth.

The US dollar is also stronger this morning.

 

FFIV broke to 92.50 yesterday and the 92.50 calls were a nice 3 bagger. CMG touched 330 then pulled back, still like her here. SODA broke under 50 and touch 48. Still have the 55 calls but they are not looking pretty.

 

Here are the morning analyst changes:

 

 

 

LULU lululemon checks show mild impact from luon issue, says William Blair

William Blair said its channel checks indicate a mild initial sales impact from lululemon's black luon quality shortfall. The firm believes management is taking swift action to address quality-control issues, and points out the company indicated last night that its Q1 earnings guidance is intact. William Blair continues to recommend purchase of lululemon shares on the recent pullback and keeps an Outperform rating on the name.

PNRA Goldman upgraded Panera based on strong unit growth trends, solid same-store-sales, increasing margins, and robust FCF deployment. Price target to $215 from $186.

DPZ Domino's Pizza downgraded to Buy from Conviction Buy at Goldman

Goldman removed Domino's from its Conviction Buy List due to share outperformance. Price target raised to $60 from $55.

SRPT Sarepta initiated with an Outperform at RW Baird

Target $63.

LULU lululemon downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital

RBC Capital downgraded lululemon due valuation and increased uncertainty following the departure of its Chief Product Officer. Price target lowered to $70 from $80.

PANL Universal Display upgraded to Buy from Hold at Needham

Needham upgraded Universal Display citing the recent pullback in shares and ramping revenue from Samsung with the launch of the Galaxy S4. The firm has a $35 price target for shares.

PPO Polypore upgraded to Buy from Hold at Topeka

Topeka upgraded Polypore citing valuation, lowered expectations, and expectations for a demand pick-up. Price target is $46.

MON Monsanto price target raised to $118-$120 from $104-$106 at Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo increased its target on Monsanto after the company reported higher than expected Q2 EPS. The firm notes that the company will look to use share buybacks to reduce the share count, and Wells keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.

SCHN Schnitzer Steel shares attractive at current levels, says DA Davidson

After Schnitzer reported slightly higher than expected Q2 EPS but lower than expected revenue, DA Davidson believes that Schnitzer's business could rebound quickly and the firm notes that the stock has reached multi-year lows. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

 

 

Will continue to hold my positions and may look to grab a few more today. Here are the strikes I am watching:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
ISRG CALL $515.00 Weekly 0.45 0.35
ISRG CALL $530.00 Apr 15, 2013 NA 0.60
PCLN CALL $715.00 Weekly 0.52 0.35

 

 

ISRG chart shows possible breakout to $510 coming, volume yesterday leads me to believe it happens very soon. PCLN looks ready as well, just needs to hold over $705 today.

 

I had some issues putting the wrong restrictions on the blog post yesterday. Going forward I will put the watch list in the forum as well.

 

Stay tuned to chat and twitter for more updates. Lets have a great day!

 

- JB