I want to thank everyone for their kinds words, support, and congratulations over the past few weeks on my big day. I truly appreciate it as we all have built some bonds with each other over the past months and years. With that being said, I know some continue to ask about having some kind of conference, and I will make a commitment to get something ironed out before the years out. At least the details of it.
Now onto the important stuff...The market continues to struggle to find footing as Syria tensions and emerging market worries have folks taking profits or sitting on the sidelines. I think the emerging market story is even more eye opening then any possible escalation in Syria as the Rupee, Lira, and Ruble have all been punished recently as fears over higher rates in the U.S. will hurt those economies via exports...ect. The Indian government has been the worst, going back and forth on policy to try and strengthen the currency, only to see it fall to historic lows. As it has been for sometime, I think these pullbacks will be bought eventually, and concerns over these emerging markets only means folks will continue to look for a better place to put their money to work..ie. U.S. equities.
Anyone following the watchlist and blog know I am a Gold bear. After bottoming out at $1180, the precious metal has found some bidders and vaulted over $1400. I actually was hoping for a bounce to $1380, so happy i was away for the bigger move over $1420. I am waiting for an entry for some puts on GLD and calls on DUST and will continue to watch for an entry. I still think Gold is set to test 1100 or less in the coming months and think DUST can head to new highs as well. The story hasn’t changed too much besides inflation nearing the 2% target, so my bear case is intact.
I bought some Z 110 calls yesterday and sent the trade out via text, like it for a break above $100 in the coming days based on lower mortgage rates and the fact that everyone keeps saying its overvalued, especially after the secondary. I will hold for the break above 100 but selling some for a double maybe a good idea when it happens.
Continue to love NFLX and BIDU here and will look to grab some NFLX calls today. NKE could also be a nice play off the lower bollie and may look for a position today. Being in Greece, Rome(airport), and Paris (airport) you can see the global impact Nike has. I would bet over 30-40% of the folks walking around in greece were wearing a nike sneaker. Heck, I saw more Lebron and Kobe jerseys then i see in New York.
More on that on the Week Ahead this weekend.
Here are some of the analyst changes of note for today:
|UBS remains cautious on FactSet ahead of Q4 results|
|UBS remains cautious on Factset ahead of Q4 results based on valuation, increased competition, and decelerating buy-side growth. Shares are Neutral rated with a $99 price target|
|Cree weakness a buying opportunity, says JPMorgan|
|JPMorgan said recent weakness in Cree following the mixed Q4 report and guidance is a buying opportunity. The analyst believes margin concerns are overblown and that the company has been somewhat supply constrained and has several levers to maintain margins. Shares are Overweight rated with a $75 price target|
|Expedia competitive concerns provides a buying opportunity, says Benchmark Co.|
|Benchmark Co. said Expedia share weakness since the Q2 report provides a buying opportunity. Firm believes Expedia has been addressing the changing competitive landscape and that shaers are undervalued. Shares are Buy rated with a $66 price target|
|Williams-Sonoma reported solid results, says Wells Fargo|
|After Williams-Sonoma reported stronger than expected results, Wells Fargo thinks the company's guidance is conservative. The firm keeps a Market Perform rating on the stock|
|Nike one of best performing brands, says Wells Fargo|
|Based on channel checks, Wells Fargo thinks that Nike was one of the best performing brands in Q2. The firm believes that Nike has strong momentum in key emerging markets, and it identifies the company as one of its top picks. Wells keeps an Outperform rating on the stock|
|Cisco outlook positive, says Wells Fargo|
|After meeting with Cisco's COO, Wells Fargo believes that the company continues to execute well and see gradually improving trends in many key product categories and geographies. Cisco reports that the global economy is continuing to recover, according to Wells, which keeps an Outperform rating on the stock|
|Joy Global price target lowered to $57 from $69 at RW Baird|
|Baird lowered its price target on Joy Global following Q3 results. The firm cited lowered bookings guidance but remains positive citing its share buyback program, expanded cost reductions, and current valuation. Shares are Outperform rated|
The SPY is below the 50dma for the second time since June, an area i usually mark as my line in the sand. The VIX closed just below the upper bollie band and will look for a reversal today and tomorrow. Looks like the USD is getting a bid as well and would like to see it close above 82. Time will tell. Here are the strikes I am looking at today:
|Stock Ticker||Call/Put||Strike||Expiration||Closing Price||Entry Price|
Both are weeklies that expire tomorrow so be wary. Will get into NFLX if it holds 285, and will try for the NKE calls after the open.
I went and approved all the Private Twitter requests for Gold members and above yesterday that were pending since I left. If you are a Gold member and above and want access to the private twitter feeds please email email@example.com with your OM username and Twitter Handle. I post my trades in the private twitter feed right after i post in the chatroom so its a matter of seconds for those unable to monitor the chatroom all day.
I also went and approved all Diamond member requests to follow on dittotrade.com .
Some nice posts by UPB yesterday and today:
Lets have a great day folks!