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1-25-2013 Watchlist

 

What another great day yesterday with NFLX really making some folks day, month, year and TZOO ramping in the morning. Looking forward to today, but will be a bit more cautious on some of the weeklies expiring today and will play maybe a few.

 

That conference in Davos is filled with headlines and bullish comments from everyone but my Grandmother, who is on the ski slopes. It almost shakes me from my short term bullishness. If these folks are bullish, they are already in equities or are maybe they are charitable folks who give the retail traders the heads up, lets us get in, then start buying. Most of these funds are in the market, its the retail sheep who have been shaken out of it. And conferences like this, with bullish remarks written all over it, is the way they will get the sheep back in the corral for slaughter. When there is noone left to buy because everyone is in is when this market falls. AAPL is a great example of that. More on this sometime soon!

 

Draghi issued some more bullish comments on the eurozone mess, and Japan nikkei ripped over 2% higher over night, nearing 11,000. Worst thing you can do is try and time the top and get in the way of these bulls. For now I play the trend. We battled 150 on the SPY yesterday and looks to be a battle area again today.

 

Not too many analyst changes today, below are the ones i like to include ADSK’s second upgrade in 2 days, with GS putting her on the conviction buy list.

 

 

SBUX)

Starbucks global comp sales beat expectations, says Bernstein

Bernstein reports that Starbucks' 7% global comparative sales increase in its Q1 beat expectations for a 5.5% gain. The firm thinks the company's channel development sales will likely re accelerate in coming quarters and it maintains a $65 price target and Outperform rating on the shares

 

Starbucks PT lifted to $56 share fr. $55: Barclays

 

(SBUX)

Starbucks price target raised to $63 from $53 at RBC Capital

After Starbucks reported in-line Q1 results, RBC Capital believes that the company's sales momentum has continued in Q2. The firm thinks that the company's earnings visibility is high, and that it has several growth drivers. But RBC believes these factors are baked into the stock price and it maintains a Sector Perform rating on the stock

ADSK)

Autodesk upgraded to Conviction Buy from Sell at Goldman

Goldman upgraded Autodesk to Conviction Buy from Sell due to improved execution and an acceleration in non-residential construction end-markets. The firm believes Suite revenue will accelerate due to improved macro trends. Price target raised to $45 from $25

 

Nomura maintains priceline.com Incorporated (NASDAQ: PCLN) with a Buy and raises the price target from $730.00 to $820.00

 

SBUX and VRSN reported good earnings ah’s and both should ramp higher. I love SAM and here is my write up as promised: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/boston-beer-co-inc-sam-crafting-profits-for-shareholders/

 

I am holding weekly calls on PCLN, GOOG, NFLX, and SINA. The SINA 60s I sold at .7 for a 75% haircut and i have 62.50s expiring worthless. I still love SHLD and will try for some calls sometime today or monday. Here are the few strikes I am looking at today:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
PCLN CALL $690.00 Weekly 0.65 0.50
PCLN CALL $695.00 Weekly 0.30 0.25
GOOG CALL $760.00 Weekly 0.95 0.50
SHLD CALL $52.50 FEB 0.35 0.30

 

 

As always we will be holding our week ahead webinar at 10:30pm Sunday, and hope to see you there!

 

Lets have a great day!

 

- jimmybob

1-24-13 Watchlist

 

Today is setting up to be a great day for those in NFLX calls as the stock is up nearly 40% after reporting a surprise profit and some nice sub numbers. I hold 36 of the 125 weekly calls avgd at .15 and will put a limit order to sell half @ $20 at open. WIll have to check back this weekend to see if thats my biggest bagger, if not it sure will be close.

 

Worst thing to do is trade like this will happen everyday. Most times holding calls that far out of the money will result in complete loss. Have a strategy and stick with it is key.

 

I will dabble a little today but will mostly watch the action. Still love BPT, SAM, SINA, SODA, and GOOG.

 

Still like SHLD but will buy the dip ,SHLD article in WSJ on Kmart, somewhat irrelevant but may give bears some ammo this morning: http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323783704578247762547817102.html?mod=WSJ_business_whatsNews&mg=reno64-wsj

 

TZOO reported some nice earnings Finally! and will get a relief rally and squeeze to $22+. One of the trades I will make today and will post on my twiter and in chat.

 

UPB said yesterday AAPL would be off 10% and the market would shake it off. Might be a bigger call then the NFLX ones. Amazing. Tons of PT downgrades on AAPL and some more bad press: Article on decreasing demand for Ipad : http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20130123PD216.html

 

Here are the analyst changes today:

 

(NFLX)

Netflix price target raised to $120 from $80 at Barclays

Barclays raised Netflix estimates citing the strong Q4 report. Shares are Equal Weight rated.

 

(NFLX)

Netflix price target raised to $160 from $100 at Citigroup

Citigroup raised its estimates and price target materially for Netflix following the company's better than expected Q4 results and outlook. Citi says Netflix's fundamentals are positive and improving and reiterates a Buy rating on the stock.

 

NFLX)

Netflix upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Raymond James

Raymond James upgraded Netflix based on solid sub growth and an improved margin outlook

 

(NFLX)

Netflix upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Macquarie

Macquarie upgraded Netflix citing the strong Q4 report and guidance. Price target is $120

 

(NFLX)

Netflix upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan

JPMorgan upgraded Netflix and said the company has improved its brand, service, and content, and is back on track towards disrupting traditional TV. Price target raised to $180 form $88. Note the is the fourth upgrade of the day.

 

Citi cuts Apple price target to $500 from $575

 

Apple downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at Scotia Capital

Scotia downgraded Apple following the Q1 report citing declining gross margins and slowing earnings growth. Price target lowered to $528 from $600.

 

AAPL)

Apple price target lowered to $575 from $800 at Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank says the combination of margin pressure and decelerating iPhone growth indicated in Apple's guidance raises growth concerns. The firm lowered its estimates for the company after the Q1 results and dropped its price target for shares to $575, but its views shares as undervalued at around $460. Deutsche keeps a Buy rating on Apple.

 

AAPL)

Apple downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies

Jefferies downgraded Apple following the company's Q1 results citing the slowdown in iPhone sales and expectations that margins will continue to fall. The firm dropped its price target for shares to $500 from $800. Note Apple shares were also downgraded this morning at Scotia Capital.

 

(BBBY)

Bed Bath & Beyond upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer upgraded Bed Bath & Beyond with a $71 price target citing valuation and expectations the company's trends could rebound meaningfully in coming quarters.

 

(FFIV)

F5 Networks price target raised to $125 from $105 at Citigroup

Citigroup raised its price target for F5 Networks citing improving industry fundamentals and solid company execution after F5's Q1 results. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the name

 

(ADSK)

Autodesk upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital

RBC Capital upgraded Autodesk and expects the company to benefit from improving macro trends, increased adoption of suites and Cloud, and margin expansion. Price target raised to $50 from $33.

 

 

 

Here are the strikes I am looking at:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
PCLN CALL $695.00 Weekly 0.45 0.30
TZOO CALL $22.50 Feb 0.20 0.40
SBUX CALL $57.50 Weekly 0.27 0.25

 

 

 

Will also look to continue to add to my SAM position with $155 calls.

 

Lets have another great trading day!

 

- Jimmybob

1-22-13 Watchlist

 

After a long three-day weekend, we come back to mixed/flat futures. Earnings really start to pick up with some big names like ISRG and GOOG after the bell.FFIV, NFLX, MCD, AAPL, and others tomorrow.

 

The Japan’s central bank came out with an unlimited QE program and raised it’s inflation target last night. The Nikkei spiked for a second, then fell 1% before closing down .4% for the day. The Nikkei has been on a monster run, and it was a sell the news event. Considering Japans debt is 200% of its GDP, continued money printing may be a problem down the line, but for now this continues to bode well for world markets. Gold and other commods are getting a small lift from the BOJ news as well.

 

If you missed the week ahead with UPB sunday night, you can find it in the forums here:  https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/246-The-Week-Ahead-Sunday-1-19-12?p=458#post458

 

Here are the Analyst changes today:

 

(CAT)

Piper sees little risk of more Siwei-related charges from Caterpillar

Piper Jaffray believes there is likely at least some value in Siwei's brand and sees little risk of more Siwei-related charges coming from Caterpillar. Piper thinks shares of Caterpillar could see pressure in the near-term following the $580M write-down, but does not believe Caterpillar's long-term competitiveness is threatened. The firm keeps an Overweight rating on shares with a $113 price target.

 

BlackRock price target raised to $273 from $223 at RBC Capital

RBC Capital believes that the strength of BlackRock's strategy is more evident than ever following its December quarter results. RBC thinks the company is one of the most visionary firms in the investing business and it maintains an Outperform rating on the stock.

(AAPL)

Apple price target lowered to $650 from $700 at UBS

UBS cut Apple's price target to $650 from $700 and lowered estimates due to lower iPhone ASP assumptions and expectations for less of a gross margin recovery. Shares remain Buy rated.

 

Apple price target lowered to $600 from $780 at Scotia Capital

Scotia Capital lowered Apple estimates to reflect reduced iPhone 5 expectations. Shares remain Buy rated.

 

(RIMM)

Research in Motion upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at Scotia Capital

Scotia Capital upgraded Research in Motion following reviews of the BB10 on various blogs. The firm said reviews indicate the BB10 has a faster browser and superior screen resolution vs. the iPhone 5 and the ability to multi-task. Scotia expects even modest success of the BB10 will result in significant earnings momentum and upgraded shares to Outperform with a price target of $23 raised from $18.60.

 

AAPL had two more price target reductions today. Guess we will see how well the stock has been priced after the bell tomorrow. Some nice reads about AAPL this weekend here:

 

http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323468604578250332341437210.html?mod=WSJ_business_whatsNews&mg=reno64-wsj

 

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20130122PD212.html

There are rumors of possibly 3 new iphones being released this year. Will be interesting to see if those rumors are true.

 

I wont be playing too many earnings the next two days, and will probably just try to play NFLX for some lotto calls. I love SAM and SHLD here and will look to add to my SAM Feb 155 calls as well as grabbing some SHLD 49.50 calls. Here are the strikes I like:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
SHLD CALL $49.50 weekly 0.30 0.25
SAM CALL $150.00 FEB 0.40 0.25
SINA CALL $60.00 weekly 0.24 0.24
NFLX CALL $125.00 weekly 0.34 0.25

 

 

As per feedback on the watchlist, i will be adding unusual options activity Sometime this week. Please give me feedback in the forum so this watchlist can be a better tool for your trading: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/241-Upgrade-and-Downgrades

 

Lets have a great trading day!

 

  • Jimmybob

1-18-2013 Watchlist

 

Here it is the third friday of the new year (option expiration), and we are sitting once again at 5 year highs. We are now a stones throw away from 150 on the SPY, a mark i have been preaching for quite a few months. Once we get there, it will be interesting to see if that area provides serious resistance.

 

Earnings have been decent so far and next week is an exciting one with: GOOG, AAPL, NFLX, FCX, WDC, FFIV, SBUX, MSFT, and many others. Will try and give some thoughts on those during the week ahead on Sunday at 10:30.

 

Futures are flat right now despite China GDP coming in above expectations and the first increase in 7 quarters. China/Japan continue to be a catalyst for world markets so that is a very good sign if we want to see this market rally some more.

 

If you like the analyst changes or have any feedback for the daily watchlist please post here: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/241-Upgrade-and-Downgrades?p=433#post433

 

I will be out in the early morning and wont be around for the open but here are some of the strikes I am looking for on Lotto Friday:

 

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike
CMG CALL $300.00
PCLN CALL $680.00
GOOG CALL $720.00
AAPL CALL $510.00

 

 

 

I still hold calls on SHLD, SODA, BPT, NFLX, SAM, CBS, CMG, ISRG, and some others.

 

Lets have a great close to the week and for Jan monthly options.

 

- JImmybob

1-17-2013 Watchlist

 

The market held ground another day and looks ready to break today with jobless claims coming out a few minutes ago at a 5 year low. Earnings continues to roll in with BAC and C reporting decent earnings this morning... both are down pre-market. EBAY reported another stellar quarter after hours, mostly from paypal again, and is trading up PM.

Blackrock beat big on both sides, raised it’s dividend, and added to its stock repurchase plan. The stock is up 4%+ pm and is trading over $230. The $230 calls on the watchlist from yesterday should be looking good.

We have Intel after the bell today, and Morgan Stanley tomorrow. Will cover the earnings plays for next week in the week ahead Sunday at 10:30pm est.

 

An interesting read on what the fed is doing to equities, which is what we have talked about for the past year: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-17/fed-concerned-about-overheated-markets-amid-record-bond-buying.html

 

AAPL bounced out of the 400s in strong fashion yesterday and received some nice analyst comments today from Goldman and JP Morgan. Also a nice read in WSJ about AAPL becoming a value stock and not a growth stock: http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323783704578246173657545416.html?mod=WSJPRO_hps_MIDDLEFifthNews

 

Here are the analyst changes today:

 

(VVUS)

VIVUS downgraded to Sell from Hold at Brean Capital

Brean Capital downgraded VIVUS citing rich valuation and lowered Qsymia estimates

 

(NFLX+)

Netflix price target raised to $102 from $65 at Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray raised its price target for Netflix (NFLX) shares citing increased confidence in the company's ability to maintain competitive differentiation. Piper believes Netflix continues to have the best overall movie/TV subscription streaming library, but says the gap has closed somewhat for high quality movie availability due to EPIX licensing its library to both Amazon (AMZN) and Redbox Instant (CSTR). Piper keeps a Neutral rating on Netflix despite raising its price target to $102.

 

(AAPL)

Apple could report upside to quarter, says Goldman

Goldman believes Apple can report a "healthy" upside to Q1 consensus estimates, particularly on iPhone units and margins. The firm believes shares are factoring in a worse case scenario and that the report could start a recovery in shares. The firm's product shipment estimates are iPhones of 48.4M, iPads of 23.4M, Macs of 5.1M, and iPods of 12.3M. Shares are Buy rated with a $760 price target.

 

(AAPL)

Apple price target lowered to $725 from $770 at JPMorgan

JPMorgan lowered its near-term earnings estimates for Apple citing weaker than expected iPad sales in the December quarter. The firm believes lower iPad shipments could limit share upside in the near-term, but says it remains comfortable with its iPhone estimates. JPMorgan lowered its price target for Apple shares to $725 from $770 while keeping an Overweight rating on the stock.

 

Netflix didn’t pan out yesterday as rumors of Eihorn short caused a sell-off but may recoup the losses today. SHLD looked very good yesterday and hopefully we get some continuation. Need SODA to break $50 today to have a chance on the 52.50s. Took a shot on more BPT 80 calls which may get some life today if it breaks 79(oil being up should help as well)

 

Here are some of the strikes i am looking at:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
BPT CALL $80.00 weekly 0.10 0.10
CBS CALL $43.00 weekly 0.05 0.10
BLK CALL $240.00 weekly 0.20 0.15

 

 

 

Lets have a great day!

 

- Jimmybob