General Options Blog

9-24 Watchlist

 

The start of the week finds the futures in solid red and global markets opening down. Commodities and risk currencies are also selling off. Is the honeymoon over from QEternity? Anyone reading financial publications over the weekend would expect the type of open we are having right now. Seems like everyone is starting to get on the bandwagon of a pullback. There are folks saying all these funds are up 18% for the year, that it would only make sense to take the last Q off.

There is also renewed concern over Greek Debt being larger then anticipated and reports due from Spain later this week that may rattle the markets a bit.

AAPL also reported 5 million Iphone 5s sold over the weekend, which is a phenomenal number, but may have brought some folks back to reality around expectations.

Either way, I still think we can move up to SPY $150 in the next few weeks, and will dabble and nibble in some trades, while also being prepared for a possible pull back.

The watchlist will be small and nimble today. Will also be looking to test out our new TEXT SERVICE ( https://www.optionmillionaires.com/sms-stock-option-alerts/ )  in the next few days so make sure your ready to go if you want to receive them.

Here is what I am watching today:

MLNX - upgraded $120 today and also on friday. I think this stocks returns to it's irrational exuberance and hits $130 in the next week or so. I am positioning myself with the $140 calls today possibly. They are .40 x .50. -

PAYX - dont play this one much but saw it on UPB outlook class last night. $35 calls look very cheap and may grab a few as a lotto .40 x .45.

LNKD - Kept telling folks it needed a breather. Think this is the week it closes above $125. May pullback at the open and will wait to try and grab either $125/$130 calls

BIDU - has been battling for $110 last 3 weeks - like a heavyweight battle. There continues to be huge concerns over China growth and spat with Japan may also have some effects on the countries growth. BIDU has been a great fade play at open. May look for 105 puts at open asking .40.

 

Others on watch today: SODA, MAKO, ISRG, CMG, TZOO, NFLX , CSTR, PCLN

 

That is all for now. Sometimes the best trade you make is the one you DONT MAKE. Lets start of the week in style!

 

- Jimmy

 

Don’t Freak Out…It’s Only A Brand Spankin’ New Chat Room!

Hey Gang, Webmaster vantillian here. We are beaming with excitement and joy as we present our new live stock options chatroom designed to take us to infinity and beyond Q3. When you login to live chat today, you'll notice some serious upgrades.

The new chat is filled with all kinds of new bells and whistles whilst maintaining the features you've come to know and expect from our old chatroom. Our new chat client is built using HTML5 code so it feels more stable, robust, and snappy. It feels that way because it is that way. You're going to love it. It'll work on any and all browsers on any and all systems: PC, Mac, Linux, whatever. And fahgettabout all those Java updates. Java, schmava.

We'll also be releasing a PC desktop version this week. So if you don't feel like opening a browser, you can download and install your very own "Option Millionaires" program on your PC. It's an extremely hearty resource freely offered to our Gold and Diamond members.

There may be a few tweaks throughout the week and I personally welcome your feedback and ideas! I'll be making several follow up posts and will try and make myself available in chat to answer questions throughout the week.

History is being made today. I sincerely hope that you enjoy the new platform and benefit from it.

NOTE: If you use a mobile device to connect to live chat please CLICK HERE. There's a one time setup you'll have to perform, but after that accessing the chat will be even easier (and might I add FULLER FEATURED) than before.

P.S. If you've been loafing in the old chatroom all weekend make sure and logout of the site, refresh, and log back in.

As Weird As It Gets – Predicting The Market Top With Gann, Demark, and Elliott Wave Analysis

By Chris Diodato

In my Tuesday post and in today’s post, my objective is to support my thesis that the market is going to make some sort of important top around October 22-26.  In another  post, I used the Demark sequential to show that the market will be very vulnerable to bullish exhaustion.  Now, to explore the market with the very little known methods of W.D. Gann.

Here’s the chart of SPY (I used the ETF because I wanted gaps included.  Indices don’t gap).  I use the “Square of 52″ and the 45 degree and 22.5% angles to find points of support and confluence.

Gann 1 As Esoteric As It Gets   Trying To Pinpoint the Market Top With Gann & Demark Analysis

The market seems to respect 45 degree trendlines from market bottoms quite well.  The practice of drawing those trendlines for support has been used since the early days of point & figure charting.  What I consider more notable is that when an important 45 and 22.5 degree line cross, the market tends to reverse.  The next cross is scheduled to be around October 24.

Before we finish, let’s show one more chart.  Here’s the same chart, with the Elliott Wave labels, and the time length of each of the two impulse waves, A, and C, labeled.

Gann 2 As Esoteric As It Gets   Trying To Pinpoint the Market Top With Gann & Demark Analysis

The equality point for wave C gives us a price target at 1566 on the S & P 500 on the last day of October.

So, in summary

  • Demark Sequential says we are vulnerable to a reversal near October 26 on both monthly and weekly time frames
  • Gann angle analysis says that a key pivot will occur near October 24
  • Gann time degree analysis says that the market will top on October 31, just in time for Obama to get reelected
  • Elliott wave analysis says the top will be around 1566 on the S & P 500

Now I definitely won’t be doing this type of analysis that often, but it’s just nice to sometimes get a different point of view, and especially one that you will never see on the news media.  To judge this signal when the time comes, look for consolidation during the last two weeks of October and our first sell signal in the beginning of November.  Until then, if you’re not long, you’re wrong!

Happy trading!

~Christopher Diodato

Obama The Stock Expert?

**************   This is a repost of my blog post at the start of 2012  *****************

On March 4th 2009 President Obama said stocks were a good buy. Over 7,000 DJIA points later he's looking like quite the genius. What did he know at that time that the rest of us didn't. I remember those days. Banks were going to be nationalized. Jobs were being lost by the hundreds of thousands. The world as we know it was about to change, and than magically we hit 666 on the S&P and everything changes. What really did change? And what did Obama know to make such a bold statement?

Here we sit over 3 years later, with stocks seemingly telling a much brighter picture than what you and I almost certainly know. We haven't recovered quite like the stock market has. Government assistance is at record highs. Food stamps are at record highs. Food prices are higher yet wages are flat or lower for the few who actually have a full-time job. You hear the word recovery still, as if we are still in a recovery, but judging by the stock market we've recovered already.... right? Stocks keep going up, as if growth is picking up, jobs are robust, and the housing market is seeing growth. It all really defies logic, but when you step back and see all the central bank intervention, its really becomes a lot clearer.

On March 4th 2009 when Obama said to buy stocks, he surely must have known what lied ahead. He most certainly knew that Bernacke was ready to paper over all the troubles in the U.S. That Bernanke will re-inflate asset prices at all costs, namely the costs for future generations. While any type of recovery we've seen, this chart surely is not representative of that recovery:

It truly has been a miraculous rally from DJIA 6,800 to DOW 13,000 in less than 3 years. Had anyone listened to Obama back on March 4th 2009 they would be sitting on some very impressive gains. CAT is up from $23 to $116. AAPL from $90 to $522. WFC from $8 to $28. BIDU from $10 to $134. The list goes on. Every time I walk into a Chipotle Mexican Grill I wonder if the person making my burrito is doing it just to keep busy because they don't need the money. CMG stock is up over 600% from 2009. The FED has done a great job inflating another bubble and with each tick higher for stocks Obama looks better and better. People see a higher stock market and they think all is well, which should get Obama another term. I don't think a 100% stock market move is coming this time around for Obama. But you never know. He is quite the stock market expert.