All posts by uranium-pinto-beans

Where Is The Market Headed Over The Next 5 Weeks?

Stocks hit new all-time highs yet again, but suffered a pullback into the close. Are stocks set for a big pullback as we approach the end of the year, or will today's dip be just another fabulous buying opportunity? One chart that will help show where the market is headed is posted below. When trying to look at where the market is headed, I think understanding where it's traded previously is important. Looking where stocks have traded at specific times in the past can lend a hand in determining where stocks are going in the future.

Below is a chart showing the current price of the $SPY (the green line) and the 5-year average of the $SPY (the red line).

Using price history as guide we should see a 3 percent rise from current levels heading into the Christmas holiday before a small sell-off as we get closer to the end of the year. A 3 percent rise would bring the S&P 500 to the 1,850 level and the DJIA to 16,500 before year's end.

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If I Had A Nickel For Each Time: Perhaps It’s Time To Hoard Them

The chief executive of French mining group Eramet has blamed a "violent crisis" gripping the world nickel market for what he says are huge losses at a subsidiary, and said conditions are unlikely to improve for two years.

Eramet company head Patrick Buffet said overcapacity in the global market for the metal was causing Société Le Nickel, the group's nickel subsidiary based in New Caledonia, to rack up losses of 2.5 billion French Pacific francs ($27 million USD) per month.

"The crisis in the nickel [market] is very, very violent and nobody expected it to reach such a level," Mr. Buffet told reporters in Noumea on Thursday after a board meeting of Société Le Nickel, the largest private employer on the main island of Grande Terre in the French Pacific territory.

His warning came after parent group Eramet last month posted a 5% drop in third-quarter sales to 754 million euros, mainly because of slumping global nickel prices.

Mr. Buffet said "alarming" levels of overcapacity stemmed from a steep rise in production from major consumer China, which in less than 10 years has spurred its output of the metal from zero to 450,000 metric tons per year, after importing cut-price ore from Indonesia.

High levels of mineral stocks on the London Metal Exchange and elsewhere had pushed down prices to "extraordinarily low levels" of between $6 and $6.50 per pound, well below the company's cost of production, Mr. Buffet said.

To counter its problems, Société Le Nickel will reduce spending and rein in investments and has also not ruled out job losses, Buffet declared.

Mr. Buffet also remarked that he foresaw the coming years as being "extremely painful" for the market, while there would be no improvement in conditions for two years.

New Caledonia is home to a quarter of the world's reserves of nickel, a key ingredient in the manufacture of stainless steel.

Thursday Morning Charts: $QCOM, $SSYS, $ADSK And $EBAY

Here are a few charts I'm watching heading into week's end:

$EBAY: The stock is now at the bottom of a 1-year channel. It's found support at these levels in the past and I expect the same this time around. The December $52.50 calls are now going for $.67. It could be a nice risk/reward trade if $EBAY does what it's been doing all year: staying in the channel. The stock's long-term trend is also higher, and this is a well-defined bull flag.

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$QCOM: This company's stock looks tired at current prices and we could see a pullback to sub-$70, where it will ultimately find support in the high $60's, namely at the $67 level. Stock options are cheap for $QCOM and a trade for the downside could be a profitable one. The December $70 puts are $.97.

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$ADSK releases earnings tonight. We could be in the early stages of a topping pattern that implies a move to sub-$40 tomorrow, then a bounce back to lower highs. I'm looking at the December $40 puts for $1.00. Will be a 100-125% trade if the stock moves the way I think it will.

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$SSYS: If we've learned anything since the March 2009 market lows, it's "don't fight the trend." In spite of a recent pullback, the trend for $SSYS is up. This stock will be at new all-time highs again in the short term. The December $135 calls are $1.05.

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The OptionMillionaires.com Daily Watchlist: +370% and +504% Today

Every weekday morning a watchlist is published at OptionMillionaires.com with a brief overview of the day as well as a few trades we're looking to get into. Today, those trades are $GLD and $DUST.

The reason? Here's an excerpt of today's watchlist:

The CPI this morning came in at .1%, vs .2% and it’s continuing to show the lack of inflation. I believe this data plus the FOMC minutes this afternoon may become the next catalyst for gold to start heading under $1250, and get ready to test last spring’s lows.

 I’ll also be looking to enter a few bearish bets on gold once again, as I think it’ll break under $1250 this week, whereupon selling will then accelerate:

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
GLD PUT $120.00 Weekly 0.21 0.25
DUST CALL $39.00 Weekly 0.40 0.40

The rest of today's watchlist can be found here: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/november-20th-2013-watch-list/

The two possible trades on today's watchlist -- $GLD puts and $DUST calls -- performed incredibly well:

$GLD $120 puts closed up 370 percent.

$DUST $39 calls closed up 504 percent.

The daily watchlist is available to Silver, Gold, Diamond, and Diamond-plus levels at optionmillionaires.com.

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