All posts by uranium-pinto-beans

RIMM – Make the Right Call

RIMM, the analysts were all over this stock in 2009 when it was $80, upgrading it, raising price targets well above $100 little did they know that a little over 2 years later this same stock would be trading at $15. It did have a wonderful run from sub $10 in 2003 to $148 in 2008. That was where the money was made and ultimately when the analysts get too giddy, that's usually the time to be moving on.

It goes the other way as well. When the crowd gets too bearish and expect RIMM to hit $5-7 a share.... well that's the time to be buying. Which is why I think this weeks high risk RIMM calls could be a very profitable trade. I see a chance that RIMM will post a 15-20% or more move to end this week. The safest bet is the $16 calls at $.47. The $17.50 are at $.16 and that strike is a good 15% gain away. The $16 strike is a little safer.

Lets see if the RIMM ANALysts get caught off guard. Either way I think the stock is in for a nice little squeeze higher.

Some of My Chart Updates/Commentary For The Weekend

I am updating some charts. Right now I am holding all puts: AXP, MS, JPM, IBM and was looking for MA, GOOG, LVS, WYNN, GMCR as the market was closing but didnt pull the trigger. Perhaps Monday will provide a better opportunity.

This same time last week the market was in meltdown mode. Those red lights were flashing, the sirens were blasting, and the emergency personnel were donning their white chemical suites. It's amazing what 5 days of centrally planned manipulation will do for the sentiment of the market. This is just another act of can kicking. Nothing has changed. No debt has been flushed down the toilet and the overall picture still reeks. Mind you I was along for the ride this week. I am a bear, and think we the world economy is doomed, but no sense letting a fabulously coordinated ramp job leave me empty handed. I noted early in the week that I was a holder of numerous calls including the CAT $95 at $.32 they went to $3.20, the JPM $30 at $.22 they went to $3.15, and the SPY $121 at $.75 they ultimately went over $4. I bought these positions based on a chart formation that I nailed with perfection. ( It was a picture perfect week and these wild swings provide tremendous trading opportunities. While I closed out many of my positions for only 4-5X times my investment, and watched them continue to soar, I still had a fabulous week and I am very happy locking in my gains.

In this centrally planned market there is no telling when fresh taxpayer cash will hit the futures market to artificially ramp stocks, or negative news will hit the wires. You have to be nimble.

Some of my my charts and commentary:



November 29th Market Update

SPY $120.05 (updated chart) the inverted h&s is still in play as long as we stay above $118.80 area. this market sux right now, wild swings, crazy moves... the same chit we saw back in 2008. we are on the cusp of a big market crash IMO. I hate being long this market and buying calls, but even with futures down close to 1%, i still see the ramp going on for a little while longer.


Chart Updates

AAPL $376.51 (updated chart) ultimately she sees $350-355 soon IMO

CAT $89.99 (updated chart) call me nutz, but if my month old SPY $105 prediction comes to fruition then CAT is going to be seeing that green circle $65-67 range b4 year end. its a possiblity and the chart is shapin up... double top... broke solidly clear of that triangle.

AXP $46 (updated chart) i'm thinking $40.50 - $41 on continued weakness, but lets get to my first circled target first

GMCR $50.35 (updated chart) she's really behaving, after popping out of the gate early GMCR got crushed. Shes going to $30 - $32.50 before the middle of Jan 2012 IMO

Weekend Charts

CRM $113.63 (chart) this one looks like Zurg from toy story. i think the chart has seen its downside right now, and its gonna squeeze higher next week. target back to $125.

the play - CRM $125 nov 25 calls at $.94

AXP $46.88 (chart) I pointed out the lower highs earlier this week and the support at $48.85, once it broke the gates fell and the castle fell. just a huge drop. those $48 puts I kept blastin on the board at $.30, $.22, $.14 hit $1.70!!! it was a huge move and why we trade options. I think AXP has further downside, ultimately $41 this year and well below it next, for now we are looking for $44.50 - $45.50

the play --->>> AXP $45 nov25 puts $.36


CAT $93.93 (chart) still above the trendline, hasnt broken out of the triangle like SPY, we saw how tragic that will be once it happens. for now CAT calls, I think $97.50 next spot assuming we dont crater out of the gates monday

the play ---->> CAT $97.50 nov25 calls $.64


IBM $185.24 (chart) as long as she holds above that trend line its game on..... obviously I think shes going down, but dont fight the tape

the play --->>> IBM $190 calls $.64 ibm