All posts by uranium-pinto-beans

Chart Updates

AAPL $376.51 (updated chart) ultimately she sees $350-355 soon IMO

CAT $89.99 (updated chart) call me nutz, but if my month old SPY $105 prediction comes to fruition then CAT is going to be seeing that green circle $65-67 range b4 year end. its a possiblity and the chart is shapin up... double top... broke solidly clear of that triangle.

AXP $46 (updated chart) i'm thinking $40.50 - $41 on continued weakness, but lets get to my first circled target first

GMCR $50.35 (updated chart) she's really behaving, after popping out of the gate early GMCR got crushed. Shes going to $30 - $32.50 before the middle of Jan 2012 IMO

Weekend Charts

CRM $113.63 (chart) this one looks like Zurg from toy story. i think the chart has seen its downside right now, and its gonna squeeze higher next week. target back to $125.

the play - CRM $125 nov 25 calls at $.94

AXP $46.88 (chart) I pointed out the lower highs earlier this week and the support at $48.85, once it broke the gates fell and the castle fell. just a huge drop. those $48 puts I kept blastin on the board at $.30, $.22, $.14 hit $1.70!!! it was a huge move and why we trade options. I think AXP has further downside, ultimately $41 this year and well below it next, for now we are looking for $44.50 - $45.50

the play --->>> AXP $45 nov25 puts $.36


CAT $93.93 (chart) still above the trendline, hasnt broken out of the triangle like SPY, we saw how tragic that will be once it happens. for now CAT calls, I think $97.50 next spot assuming we dont crater out of the gates monday

the play ---->> CAT $97.50 nov25 calls $.64


IBM $185.24 (chart) as long as she holds above that trend line its game on..... obviously I think shes going down, but dont fight the tape

the play --->>> IBM $190 calls $.64 ibm

Kick The Can

European bonds, and I've been saying this since the minute they did the 50% "voluntary" haircut on Greece bonds, is that CDS is no longer relevant. There is no insurance on European bonds. anyone holding Italian bonds can expect the same fate as greece bondholders who had CDS insurance, you are going to get the shaft!!! they had big kool-aid smiles on their face when they announced the Greek bailout, when they really had chit on their face. damned if they did, damned if they didnt. All in all they did exactly what they've been doing since this all started.... kick the can down the road. and they are finding out its not working anymore....

Wild Ride


Since the plunge in late July to August, this "market" has been nothing short of a wild ride.  Even Bernacke can't seem to assuage investors as every headline out of Europe garners some type of over-reactive response from market participants.    Then again I think much of these violent swings are due to government intervention.  Absent government intervention we would probably already be on our road to growth.   We would have purged the system.  The risk takers who created this mess would be gone, and the market would allow the pieces to be picked up by those who played it smart.  That is the premise of the market.  Supply and demand.  Once the goverment meddles with it, it just isn't a market anymore, hence the wild ride we've seen since QE2 ended.

The FED is still meddling, and in the press conference this week Bernanke all but assured QE3, which accounts for the rabid buying we see on any and every dip this market takes.  The expectations world wide, by every investor is that the markets will always be backstopped by the central banks.  There is no risk.  The risk since March 2009 is missing out on the next centrally planned run up in assets, most notably equities.   Bernanke was telling everyone this week to be careful with your money, yet he's forcing EVERYONE into risky assets.

Ben Bernancke makes Corzine look like a genius  and I do believe down the road, years from now, people will wonder how we ever believed a word he said.  A red cape is all he needed for his devil costume this Monday.

As far as this weeks wild ride....  its great for options traders and I don't see this slowing down anytime soon.