All posts by OM Team

Unhealthy Short Term Conditions – Exercise Caution

As Max G. mentioned in his latest post, the market has been implying a rate hike and subsequent selloff. The ominous conditions have also been reflected in my own measures of money flow and market breadth. Despite the major market indices still relatively near their most recent highs, my long term indicator issued a sell signal as of yesterday's close. The last time this signal triggered was just days prior to the October 2014 correction.

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How to Paper Trade

If you were to do a search on the phrase "Paper Trading," you'll probably find millions of webpages. A while back a young man was telling me that he made $38,000 on a $100k start. When I informed him he had wasted time and energy, he was taken aback. His ego was way up and he was "Ready to Go" and objected to my calling this a waste of time. He would not listen and insisted he could dive in head first and take it to the moon. He opened a cash options account with $1000 and within 1 week he was calling me back and was wondering what happened to his portfolio which was now worth $518.

So what happened? Several Things:

  1. His entries and exits were off
  2. His timing was off
  3. He didn't buy properly
  4. He threw too much at plays

"So how do we fix this mess?" he asked. I told him I would help him if he promised me he would abide by what I told him to do. He agreed, but as soon as I said "Paper Trade," I think I lost him. Within two more weeks he was gone. I believe he is currently saving up for another go at it.

Much is written about "Skin in the Game" and "No Emotions" (which, if you think about it, both have some merit). So what do you do? You want to trade options. You want to be here next month. You want to learn a new strategy for trading the markets, but yet, you are sooooooo new to this. How do you get started?

The last quarter of 2008, I made approximately $75,000 trading options with a $5000 start. WHOAHHHHH who da man! Wait not so fast! The end of 1st quarter of 2009, I gave back that $75,000 plus another $10,000 for a total miss of $85,000 for the first quarter. And to make matters worse, my taxes were due and it took me 2 years to get out of that mess.

How do you get out of a cave? Just get with someone that is familiar with that cave and that I AM!

While many chartists, gurus, teachers and experts will gladly pride themselves on how good they are, there are a few of us out there who will wear our mistakes like a badge of honor. I will gladly carry that message forward so you don’t have to make those same mistakes! So who is looking out for your best interest? That Guru? That twit looking for attaboys? That special 3 piece suit guy who is going to send you 3 plays a week into your email box for the special price of $279/month? Doubtful on all accounts. But, we will!

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