All posts by jimmybob

Top 5 Stocks To Start 2014 (Webinar)

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I'll be hosting a special Webinar December 26th at 4:30PM EST to review my top 5 favorite stocks to start off the new year. This Webinar will be for Silver members and above and the registration information is located here : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/live-event-classes-jtv/upcoming-live-webinar-registration-information/

Some of my favorite stocks going into 2013 were: Boston Beer (SAM), LinkedIn (LNKD), SodaStream (SODA), Netflix (NFLX), BlackRock (BLK) and several others. Tune in this coming Thursday to see which stocks will be the ones I'm watching to start 2014.

December 20th, 2013 Watch List

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Futures are up slightly on this Friday morning as the market looks to put to rest a solid week of gains, with the SPY adding 1.90% so far. I forgot about the ex-divy on the SPY so the $182 mark I was expecting to close above is nearly out of reach, but the possibility of $181.25 or so still exists. The Vix is also down over 10% this week and it closed at 14.15 yesterday.

One of the bigger stories on Thursday was the drop in gold and its close below $1200. Yesterday was the first time gold has closed under $1200 since mid-2010. I expect it to continue to fall out of favor and, hopefully, break under $1180 today.

There were earnings reports out yesterday from RHT and NKE. Both reported strong numbers and both have analysts out this morning raising targets. RHT is up nicely but NKE is nearly flat. Despite the strong numbers from NKE, it may linger in the high 70s for a bit before breaking into the 80s and above all-time highs.

If you missed it yesterday, here's my daily recap for Thursday: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/trade-recap-today-december-19th-2013/

I'm still holding calls and will look to lock them in at some point today. I may try for some lottos on PCLN, despite that stock being a premium crusher every Friday for the past few months. I'll also be looking at AMZN for a break over $400, finally.

Altogether, there are eight sessions left before the new year with little data coming, so I would expect it to be quite easy for the market to ramp higher. Also, it's 46 all-time high closes on the Dow so far this year and it will be interesting if we continue to see more.

I'll be doing a webinar on my Top 5 picks for 2014 sometime next week, probably December 26th. It will be recorded and I'll have a blog post on it, so no worries if you can't make it. I usually trade weeklies and monthlies, so it's just those stocks I'm looking for leaps on, which is a a strategy I rarely employ.

Here are the analyst changes of note for today:

Twitter initiated with a Market Perform at BMO Capital
Target $55
DRI Darden stock worth about $56, says Wells Fargo
After Darden reported lower than expected Q2 same-store sales and announced that it would spin off or divest Red Lobster, Wells Fargo's sum of the parts analysis of the new Darden suggests that the stock is worth about $56 per share. The firm keeps an Outperform rating on the stock
WDC Western Digital price target raised to $105 from $82 at Stifel
Stifel increased its price target on Western Digital as it believes that investor sentiment towards the HDD industry will remain positive, driven partly by underlying capacity demand and favorable cloud-driven mix shift. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the stock
PVH PVH Corp. shares recommended at Buckingham
Following a management meeting, Buckingham recommends added to PVH Corp positions given 2015 earnings power, positive commentary on the selling environment, WRC synergies, and margin opportunity. Shares are Buy rated with a $152 price target
MMM 3M Company upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan
JPMorgan upgraded 3M Company to Neutral citing a more aggressive use of the company's balance sheet and better fundamentals in 2014. The firm raised its price target for shares to $128 from $120 following 3M's investor conference
NKE Nike revenue growth strong, says Wells Fargo
After Nike provided lower FY14 EPS guidance, Wells Fargo thinks the stock could trade sideways in the near-term. However, the firm keeps an Outperform rating on the stock due to what it sees as the company's strong revenue growth
RHT Red Hat price target raised to $60 from $55 at Maxim
Maxim raised its price target for Red Hat shares to $60 citing strong billings acceleration following the company's Q3 results. The firm reiterates a Buy rating on the stock

Here are the strikes I'm watching at the open:

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
AMZN CALL $402.50 Weekly 0.35 0.30
PCLN CALL $1,207.50 Weekly 0.95 0.40

Let's have a great day folks. I'll see you this coming Sunday night for the last Week Ahead webinar of 2013!

- JB

Trade Recap For Today: December 19th, 2013

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The day after the massive Fed-induced rally the markets took a breather and only the Dow closed in the green, though that was only at a fractional amount.

Despite the lack of direction, some individual stocks did really well today and some of my favorite trades started to pan out.

I've been bearish on gold since the Spring and we finally headed towards the June lows, with the precious metal falling nearly 4% to 1189, only $9 away from its multi-year lows. The GLD puts I bought @ .46 yesterday closed at $1.45, and I think we continue to fall tomorrow.

MLNX was a text trade idea this week. It's a stock I have spoken about a bit over the past few weeks and it finally looked set to break out in a major way after testing the $37 level. Unfortunately, the stock didn't cooperate. That is, until today. MLNX ramped from the open, hitting an intra-day high of $39.73.

The text idea I sent out @ .30 x .40 looks much better now with MLNX options hitting .90 and closing at .60 x .75. That just goes to show you that you never count a position out. I love MLNX and will have more on that one in the coming weeks. MLNX is also one of my top picks for 2014.

SCTY has been on my watchlist and "week ahead" posts since the end of the summer and days like today show why I make sure I have a position every week. SCTY ramped out of the gate and hit a high of $58, making the $55 calls I bought @ .50 worth $3.40 each. I also bought some of the $59 calls this morning @ .10 and those hit a high of .75. I still love SCTY and this stock is yet another one of my top picks for 2014.

GOOG hit a high of 1091.99 and the 1095 calls I bought yesterday @ .69 average hit $2.70. I didn't sell them, but smart folks should have. I still think it rallies tomorrow, but nothing is certain.

I also sold some CROC $47 Dec calls I've been holding for a few weeks @ .50 from .55. They expire tomorrow and the options/stock are very illiquid. I didn't want to risk getting stuck in the position despite my continued confidence in the Australian dollar weakening.

My FB $52 puts actually hit .17 today from my .22 entry. I didn't sell, as they're my $220 protection on any market downside.

Here's the trading week so far:

SCTY $55 calls .50 to $3.40 so far (still open), $500 risk.

SCTY $59 calls .10 to .75 so far ( still open), $100 risk.

GOOG $1095 calls .69 to $2.70 so far (still open), $690 risk.

MLNX $39 calls @.35/.40 to .90 so far (still open), $390 risk.

GLD $116 puts @ 46 to $1.45 so far (still open), $460 risk.

FB $52 puts @ .22 to $.17 so far (still open), $220 risk.

Right now, the Facebook puts are off the table. I'll update tomorrow, after I close some positions. I hope this helps some folks.

I'm really in love with SCTY and MLNX now and I'll have some in-depth posts on them over the coming days.

Have a great afternoon!

- JB

2014 Predictions

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It's around this time you start seeing predictions for 2014, as the folks who've been completely wrong on 2013 try to look to the future in a desperate attempt to be proven correct. We ourselves will try to note a few stocks to watch for in 2014, and you should expect the list to be out before the new year.

Rather than wait for the full list, though, I'll give you one of my top 3 stocks for 2014 right now, and that would be Solar City (SCTY). Solar City shares are trading at $55.80, and I think this will be a $90-plus stock at some point in 2014, if not higher. More to come on that one, but I wanted to get this message out before it breaks $60.