All posts by jimmybob
December 26th, 2013 Watch List
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas to everyone!
There are 4 trading sessions left in 2014 and the market sure looks like it wants to close 2013 out in grand fashion, with futures solidly in the green and the SPY looking to add to its 46th record high close this year. Looks like a test if $185 on the SPY comes at some point in the next few sessions with little data on the horizon.
TWTR continues its gravity defying move, showing again why shorting a momo stock can be hazardous to your health. Of course I wish I held all of my $65 calls @ .45 but a profit is a profit.
TSLA is up nicely pre-market and looks to retake the $160 area. Gold has also found a bid and sits at $1214, after breaking below $1200 last week.
Lots of talk about online sales the past few days, and today and yesterday is about the packages not getting there before the holiday: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304753504579280194287430208?KEYWORDS=shipping
I'll be hosting a Webinar this afternoon on my 5 favorite stocks going into 2014. You can find details here: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/top-5-stocks-start-2014-webinar/
Seems like most of the analysts took today off, as there aren't many upgrades/downgrades. It will most likely be a quiet session:
| FDX FedEx price target raised to $173 from $122 at Argus |
| Argus increased its price target on FedEx after the company reported lower than expected Q2 EPS but raised its FY14 EPS growth guidance. The firm thinks the company can achieve the high end of its FY14 EPS guidance without significant improvement in end-market conditions. It reiterates a Buy rating on the stock |
| AMZN Amazon.com ChannelAdvisor data implies slight upside, says Piper Jaffray |
| Piper Jaffray says ChannelAdvisor data for Amazon.com implies slight upside to December quarter estimates. Piper estimates quarter-to-date Amazon's ChannelAdvisor data is tracking up 22%-24% and keeps an Overweight rating on the stock |
Yes, that's all the analyst changes for today! Today is Boxing Day, so some markets are closed: UK, Australia, Canada, etc.
Will look to get into CBRL, finally, and try for some SSYS calls from Tuesday's dip:
| Stock Ticker | Call/Put | Strike | Expiration | Closing Price | Entry Price |
| CBRL | CALL | $120.00 | January | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| SSYS | CALL | $150.00 | January | 0.50 | 0.35 |
Will also be watching PCLN for a breakout over $1200 (tight bollies).
Let's have a great day!
- JB
December 24th, 2013 Watch List
Put another green day in the books as the market gapped at the open and remained solidly in the green for the rest of the session, with the SPY closing at 182.53. We have 5 trading sessions left in 2013, including today's 1PM close, which is plenty of time for the SPY to test $185 and at least close above $184 to end the year.
FB and TWTR are ending 2013 in style, as they continue to move higher. 3-d stocks have rekindled their fire, with DDD hitting all-time highs yesterday and SSYS poised to make one of its own today.
CBRL (Cracker Barrel) continues to be the target of its activist investor, Sardar Biglari, who's calling for a sale of the company. All this does is show how undervalued the shares are. I'll be continuing to look for an entry.
TSLA kept its 5-star safety rating from the NHTSA despite the fire issues and the stock is up nicely pre-market. It should regain the $150 mark from last week and some lotto calls may be an option today. SCTY also looks great pre-market.
Expect a quiet day today. Here are the analyst changes of note (and there aren't many):
| NKE Nike price target raised to $88 from $84 at Argus |
| Argus increased its price target on Nike as the firm thinks the company reported solid Q2 results, and is continuing to gain market share. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the stock |
| AAPL Apple still facing high end smartphone, tablet saturation, says Pacific Crest |
| Pacific Crest raised its estimate for Apple (AAPL) to reflect the company's deal with China Mobile (CHL), as the firm expects the move to increase iPhone sales by 10M in FY14. Still, the firm believes there is saturation at the high end smartphone and tablet market, and it believes this situation will become more acute in FY15, creating risk for growth expectations for the company. The firm keeps a $480-$585 price target and a Sector Perform rating on the shares |
| FFIV F5 Networks shares should be bought at current levels, says Pacific Crest |
| Pacific Crest believes that F5 Networks is entering 2014 on solid footing, and the firm thinks the stock is undervalued |
ISRG has started to bounce from its lows. I expected it to happen at the start of 2014, but it may be happening early. I may look for some calls today on BIDU, as the stock looks poised to head towards $180:
| Stock Ticker | Call/Put | Strike | Expiration | Closing Price | Entry Price |
| ISRG | CALL | $285.00 | weeklu | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| BIDU | CALL | $180.00 | Weekly | 0.34 | 0.30 |
I'll be watching PCLN, GOOG and NFLX, as well, for some possible lotto calls.
Let's have a great day and EVERYONE PLEASE HAVE A HAPPY HOLIDAY!!!!
- JB
Trade Recap for Today: December 23rd, 2013
The market continued its end of year rally with the SPY closing up .53% to $182.53. Social Media and 3-d stocks led the charge as Facebook, Twitter, DDD and SSYS continued their moves from last week. GOOG also added $15 to Friday's close above $1100 as the stock continues to catch up with PCLN.
I had SSYS and SCTY calls on the watchlist, but things can always change and they sure did today.
Twitter showed some nice volume in the morning and was solidly above $60, two good signs for further upside, so I went in with the 10 of $65 weekly calls @ .45:
Few lotto TWTR 65 calls @ .45
Twitter teased with some ups, and shook some with its downs, before finally breaking into the high $64 area near the end of the day. I locked some of the calls in at 1.45 and will hold the rest for higher.
SSYS continues to be a stock I love and I wanted to get in some of the January calls this morning. I waited a bit too long and the stock broke over $130. I proceeded to wait some more and gave up trying to get in. There's always another day and another trade.
MLNX and SCTY continue to be my two favorite stocks heading into 2014. I added some SCTY $60 calls @.30 after SCTY showed some strength after the morning dip. Those calls closed .30 x .40. I also added the MLNX Jan $45 calls at .40 and those closed .20 x .30.
I missed some fun in ISRG and SAM today, and of course AAPL did well for those in on Friday or those that grabbed some $570 calls on the dip.
For those not in the chatroom tomorrow, please have a happy holiday with your families.
I'll be in the chatroom most of the morning, but remember that the market closes at 1PM.
I'll also be hosting my Start of 2014 Webinar on Thursday after the close, and you can check out the details here: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/top-5-stocks-start-2014-webinar/
Have a great afternoon!
- Jb
December 23rd, 2013 Watch List
Another great week in the books, with the SPY adding another 2.41% and closing at all-time highs. This is a script that has played out many times in 2013. With six trading sessions left, it will be interesting to see if we can melt higher and close out 2013 over $185 on the SPY. Considering there are no major reports or catalysts on the horizon that could stall a rally, it seems like going higher is the path of least resistance
For those that missed the Week Ahead Webinar, here's the link: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/746-The-Week-Ahead-With-UPB-and-JB-12-22-2013
Also, here are some nice charts and ideas from UPB: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/charts-ebay-sbux-gs-aapl/
The big news today is the China Mobile and Apple deal, something that's been rumored for some time but finally came to fruition. Apple is up nicely pre-market as analysts have put out positive comments. I've posted some thoughts on the deals on twitter and StockTwits. I'm not bearish on the deal. I'm just seeing folks hyping it up like AAPL is going to $600 today and wanted to temper the enthusiasm. I also don't have a position, so I hope anyone in calls makes out well today and the stock goes to the moon!
Don't forget that the market closes early tomorrow at 1PM, and that it's also closed Wednesday.
Here are some of the analyst changes of note for today:
| PCYC Pharmacyclics recent pullback a buying opportunity, says Goldman |
| Goldman views the recent pullback in Pharmacyclics as a buying opportunity and sees multiple catalysts that include Ph. 3 Resonate data by the end of January, expected FDA approval of Imbuvca for r/r CLL, and a clean label for r/r CLL. Shares are Buy rated with a $165 price target |
| GME GameStop stock set up very well into 2014, says Oppenheimer |
| Oppenheimer views the recent pullback in GameStop's stock as much more technical than fundamental and expects the company's EPS to consistently top expectations over the longer term. The firm keeps a $60 price target and Outperform rating on the shares |
| AAPL Apple to get around $4 EPS boost from China Mobile deal, says Cantor |
| Cantor says that, at the midpoint of its forecast, it expects Apple's (AAPL) deal with China Mobile (CHL) to increase the U.S. company's 2014 EPS by about $4. The firm expects Apple to sell 20M-24M iPhones to China Mobile customers in 2014 and it keeps a Buy rating on Apple |
| FB Facebook ad intensity increased during holiday season, says Cantor |
| After conducting checks, Cantor Fitzgerald believes that Facebook's ad intensity rose during the holiday season, with its ad load rising. The firm increased its estimates for the company and raised its price target on the shares to $65 from $63 while reiterating a Buy rating |
| AAPL Apple price target raised to $650 from $600 at Stifel |
| Stifel raised Apple's (AAPL) price target to $650 following the official multi-year agreement with China Mobile (CHL) for the iPhone 5s and 5c. The firm believes incremental EPS from the China Mobile ramp could total $4-$8 per share after the first 12 months. Shares are Buy rated |
| FIVE Five Below upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse |
| Credit Suisse upgraded Five Below given sustained +25% revenue growth and +30% EPS growth, compelling merchandise margins, and demographic appeal and growth. Price target raised to $52 from $46 |
| TIF Tiffany fundamentals intact after arbitration decision, says Sterne Agee |
| Sterne Agee analyst Ike Boruchow believes Tiffany has the cash on hand to pay the $480M total award in the arbitration with Swatch. He says that while it was surprised by the decision, the news eliminates a long-term overhang on the stock. Boruchow recommends buying shares of Tiffany on any weakness and keeps a Buy rating on the stock with a $100 price target |
I'll be looking to get into some of the positions I talked about last night, like SCTY weekly as well as trying to add a position in SSYS
| Stock Ticker | Call/Put | Strike | Expiration | Closing Price | Entry Price |
| SSYS | CALL | $145.00 | January | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| SCTY | CALL | $60.00 | Weekly | 0.55 | 0.55 |
A reminder: I'll be doing a Webinar on Thursday for some stocks to watch in 2014:
https://www.optionmillionaires.com/top-5-stocks-start-2014-webinar/
Let's have a great day!
- JB