All posts by jimmybob

11-30 Watchlist

The end of the week and Month is here, and what a great week it was. Futures are somewhat flat this morning and think we stay mildly green today as buyers come in for the end of the month. ULTA, ZUMZ, YUM, and a few others reported earnings yesterday, with ULTA really looking good, while YUM and ZUMZ are struggling pm.

Nothing really hitting me in the face this morning so here are some lottos I will be watching through the morning for some possible day trade flips for 100%:

 

AAPL 590/595

GOOG 695/700

PCLN 670/675

AMZN 255

WYNN 115

Dont forget there is a class at 2pm for diamond members by chris: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2012/diamond-members-webinar-on-thursday-yearly-and-cyclical-stock-seasonality/

Lets end the week in style and see you in the chatroom!

SodaStream Call Volume

Folks are becoming quite bullish on SodaStream as the call buying has been extremely active today. Over 7,500 calls have been purchased today versus only 300 puts. This includes a 2100 block of the Dec 42.50 calls. We are also very bullish on SodaStream and think a long awaited breakout is looming. We will have another write-up on SodaStream (SODA) tonight.

Here were some of the trades today, the 2k block is where the arrow is pointed.

 

11-29 Watchlist

Another great day yesterday, as the market rallied off market lows and finished strong. Futures are solid green as I write this, even with some big #'s due out that include GDP and jobless claims. I said it in the chatroom yesterday that I tend to tune out the noise so I really dont pay much attention to those numbers. I think the recent market action points towards the $150 SPY target I have been talking about, and will stick to that until something changes.

We have sent ou a couple text alerts in the last few weeks since the service started, and looks like we have hit paydirt with GOOG. Here is what the text alert said:

GOOG looks to be turning and underperformed vs other techs. Could have a nice 5% move in th next 3 days meaning the 695 Wkl calls@.25 could be a nice 10 bagger

With GOOG near 690 here PM, those calls should be near $1.50-2 at open, they closed at 1.15. Figure they hit 2.50 today, that is a 10 bagger. This means you can trade 9 other option plays with the same capital, have them expire worthless, then buy these GOOG calls an recoup all your losses. Why we love options!

Some other great trades yesterday with GMCR, SODA, DECK, AAPL, ARO, GDX, and WYNN. There were many more and sorry if i left some out.

Still think the market holds its ground today and works its way towards $143+ on the SPY by close tomorrow. Anyone doubting what UPB or myself has been saying for months only needs to read this article in the WSJ where it spells out exactly what th fed has been doing since QE1... FORCING FOLKS into equities... : http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324784404578145541490348884.html

Will have more in a post i have been working on for the last 24 hours. OptionMillionaires mentioned on Marketwatch this morning : http://blogs.marketwatch.com/need-to-know/2012/11/29/6-gut-checks-before-the-open/

Also there is a class on friday at 2pm by Chris D: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2012/diamond-members-webinar-on-thursday-yearly-and-cyclical-stock-seasonality/

Here is what I am looking to add today:

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
TRLG CALL $29.00 DEC 0.25 0.25
WYNN CALL $115.00 NOV WEKLY 0.15 0.15
NFLX CALL $85.00 NOV WKLY 0.39 0.35
SODA CALL $45.00 JAN 0.40 0.40

TRLG has some big interest so should see a move back over $30. Still like WYNN to touch and break $115. $NFLX is poised to make a move to $85+, and I love $SODA here for a continuation. Stay tuned to chat for more updates.

Lets have a great day!!

 

- jimmy

The Calm Before the Storm on Netflix (NFLX)

We wrote about Netflix (NFLX) last week, calling for a move to $90. It doesn't take much research to see we had that wrong. It was a bold call, but being right on bold calls while trading options can equal huge gains if you are on the right side of the trade. We still feel like an 8-12%+  upside move is coming on Netflix in the next few trading sessions. Why? Well it seems the negative sentiment on the stock has faded, and there seems to be quite a few folks waiting for another confirmation of a breakout on the stock. The breakout that will take it above $100.

Short interest decreased for the first time since August and looks like a break above $85 will entice more to cover.

The Netflix(NFLX) chart since start of November is uncharacteristically calm... a trend that will not continue for long. We are currently holding Dec 87.50 C and will be looking to add more call positions over the next few days.

11-28 Watchlist

We have started the week in mixed fashion after ramping hard the previous 5 trading days. The next day or so will be telling for market direction, as it is possible we go back to retest the 200dma at 137.64. If you have spent time in the chatroom, you would know i rarely watch CNBC, but I did turn it on near the end of the day yesterday only to hear "Fiscal Cliff" used every 5th word. And then to watch the anchors tie an interview they had the last 20 minutes of the day to the market performance. One of two things is going to happen here: 1. The Fiscal Cliff Fears are for real and the market will sell-off on the jitters  2. Since BIG BEN coined the phrase in FEB, folks have been planning for it and this is just a way to shake the retail traders .

Of course you know I think it is #2 and think this market will rally at some point. You know how the saying goes "Fool me once, shame on you - fool me twice, shame on me",  I thought the same thing with the DEBT ceiling only to see lawmakers make a last ditch deal and see the US credit rating dropped and the market dropping 4% that day. If the same thing happens, shame on me. But the market is a very forward looking and I dont see how we have a major sell-off regardess. Well now onto the watchlist!

We have beige book out at 2 but dont think that will move things much. Futures are red so hopefully we hold the 139.76 or so on SPY and melt higher. We had great earnings on GMCR yesterday which is helping SODA. MNST exploded yesterday. This morning AEO beat, and we have TIF earnings tomorrow. Here is what I am watching:

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
PVH CALL $21.00 DEC 0.35 0.35
PVH CALL $40.00 DEC 0.30 0.30
TIF CALL $67.50 DEC 0.65 0.60
TIF CALL $70.00 DEC 0.30 0.30

 

It is a short list today, but will wait for a feel on the trend before grabbing anymore. Still have SODA, GOOG, BPT, NFLX, MNST, DECK, PVH and others.

Lets have a great trading day!

 

- Jimmy