All posts by jimmybob

SINA (SINA.COM) / GMCR (Green Mountain Coffee Roaster, Inc.)

Seems like all the beaten down, piece of shit stocks want to run today. SINA (SINA.COM) is a beaten down china ADR that is getting some legs on the FMCN news today, just like all the other ADR's. SINA (SINA.COM) does have a tendency to explode after being beaten down, like it did in October. SO play accordingly.

 

 

GMCR is continuing its breakout today, after getting an afternoon pop yesterday. Looks like a combination of some NPD rumor news, as well as short covering??? Hate the stock, but play the play, and GMCR can be profitable trading on both sides.

Volatility is an option players friend!

Happy Trading!

DNDN (Dendreon Corp)

We wrote about DNDN in early December, after they released news of a royalty sale for $125 million. Sometimes that can be the sign of a desperate company, especially one that has been burning through cash at a high rate. But we thought the opposite and that the calls would be a nice play going forward, as we wrote here.

DNDN
DNDN

Turns out those have been quite a profitable trade, as DNDN has surged more then 50% from the December lows closing at $13.31 today. It's anyones guess if this current 3 day monster run continues on the pre-announcement of "better-than-forecast fourth quarter 2011 revenue ". DNDN still has a questionable future, and will be in trouble if its only revenue driving drug fails.

For now, its best to play the hype, and lock in profits when you can. Its usually the people looking at the chart, waiting for a retest of the stocks highs, that are holding the bag a few weeks later wondering what happened.

Figure short term top of $15-17 to lock in profits, and hold some calls for possible $20 test.

dndn 1-9
dndn 1-9

 

PRX (Par Pharmaceuticals) – On the Move

PRX was a company i followed over the past few years. A generic drug company, that i think one day will trade north of $50. During a presentation today, they noted higher margins and possible upside revisions to guidance. I think this stock is currently undervalued, and should see $40 in short order.

The company sees 2012-2014 CAGR for revenue of 8%; sees CAGR for cash EPS of 15%. The company says potential opportunities for upside to its three-year guidance exist, including new AG partnerships, potential acquisitions, less erosion of base generics than expected, and better pipeline production. Information taken from investor day slide presentation.

Chat Room members were alerted to the $35 Jan 21st calls @ .35.

Lets see if we get some breakout volume as the stock is currently above the Moving averages and upper bollinger band.

DECK (Deckers Outdoor Corporation) up 4.61% today

On a day when the market was mixed, DECK (Deckers Outdoor Corporation) rose 4.61% on double its average trading volume. Of course I could be arrogant and think folks bum rushed the stock based on my rosy analysis last night. It is also quite possible, that some hedge fund managers watched Al Rokers frigid north east forecast, and decided it was time for folks to buy the boots, so they bought the stock.

Either way, DECK was a money maker for those who played it today. We brought the $90 calls up as a great risk vs reward entry @ .60, and they closed at $1.10.

DECK still looks to have some room to run, and the $90 area should be hit in short order.

DECK

Much more to come on DECK...

 

Uggggggggg……..z

Just when you think you have seen it all, you see something that takes the prize. Folks wearing boots in all types of attire... Pajamas? Shorts? Jeans? Tights? Naked.... well not naked... but you get the idea.

The idea that the most popular footwear name for females, will undergo a slowdown because of the weather,is like saying drug addicts will quit because its too cold out. Weather doesn't matter. If a lady wants to wear boots in 90 degree weather, then more power to her:

I prefer that the analysts take a common sense approach to Deckers Outdoor Corporation, more commonly knows as the stock trading under the symbol DECK.

When its hot out, people will not buy boots. Those extra years at college really have pulled the covers over the eyes of those folks. Last time i checked, Uggz was an iconic brand to the stars. Folks were willing to pay $100+ dollars for any type of replica of the boots worn by Lindsey Lohan(pre-jail sentence) or any other star.

Cant remember the last time it snowed in california, so to use weather as a mean to downgrade a stock that it little effected by it, is quite funny. Well not funny... its a buying opportunity. DECK (Deckers Outdoor Corporation) has been one of the last growth stocks to succumb to the growth stock syndrome.

"DECK is up too much"

So now folks are using any excuse to create a short scenario, which leads us to being bullish on Deck.

Company is growing at a 34% rate YOY, with near 50% margin rates. Its Uggz products, driving 90% of those results, continues to be a class leader. Yet the stock is down over 30% since hitting its high of 118.90 in October.Must be the abnormal heat?

We are buyers of calls. Check us out on our chat to get strikes and expiries.