All posts by jimmybob

3-6-2013 Watch List

 

We witnessed history yesterday as the DOW broke all-time highs only 6 trading sessions after the big drop on the italian election, where everyone and his brother was calling for a pull-back. The story remains the same, Buy the fooooo&ing dip. Until there is a better place to put money, equities will continue to outperform.

Some nice moves yesterday on mostly everything. OPEN and SAM continued to move higher, SHLD broke out on more buys from Lampert, and GOOG continued it’s rampage, reminding me of the run from 600s to 760 last year.

 

With ADP numbers coming out this morning better then expected, futures are solidly in the green. I wouldn’t be suprised of some gap and trap sometime in the next few days as we are over the upper bollinger band on the SPY so be wary. But I do think we get under 10 on the vix sometime in the next few months, and will look at that area for the possible short term top.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes today:

 

IntercontinentalExchange upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette

Keefe Bruyette upgraded IntercontinentalExchange to reflect benefits from new swaps future products. Price target raised to $184 from $148.

(BBY)

Best Buy upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies

(WLT)

Walter Energy initiated with a Sector Perform at RBC Capital

Target $34.

TripAdvisor revenue poised to accelerate, says Deutsche Bank

After viewing a presentation by TripAdvisor's CFO, Deutsche Bank is increasingly confident that the company's revenue growth can re-accelerate in 2013 and 2014. The firm continues to view the company as one of the top names in online travel, and it reiterates a Buy rating

)

Baidu growth set to slow amid increased competition, says Citigroup

After Qihoo (QIHU) reported higher than expected Q4 revenue and presented data indicating that its share of the Chinese search market was well over 10%, Citigroup expects Baidu (BIDU) to undergo slowing revenue growth and margin contraction. The firm reiterates a Sell rating on Baidu.

Cree price target raised to $57 from $43 at Piper Jaffray

Piper raised its target on Cree after the company launched a LED bulb for under $10 and issued a positive preannouncement. The firm expects the new bulb to generate at least $194M-$272M in revenue for Cree, while supporting the company's gross margins. Piper maintains an Overweight rating on the shares.

Apple price target lowered to $530 from $575 at Barclays

Barclays lowered Apple estimates to reflect new products that are more back half loaded for the year and a more competitive 1H 2013. The firm lowered its FY13 EPS estimate to $43.75 vs. consensus of $44.81. Shares remain Overweight rated with a $530 price target.

 

WIll keep small for today as well. Still holding quite a few March positions like SAM, OPEN, SODA, BNNY, SHLD, BPT...ect.

 

Will look to get some more SODA calls on 50 test as well as grabbing some NFLX calls if it breaks over 185.

 

Here are the strikes:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
NFLX CALL $200.00 March 0.33 0.30
SODA CALL $52.50 March 0.25 0.25

 

 

Lets have another great day!

 

- JB

Crazzzzie Eddie at Sears Holdings (SHLD)

eddie_lampert

We have been a big fan of Sears Holdings (SHLD) over the past year or so. Not for it's outstanding business plan or execution, but for the potential value of it's assets. Assets that are worth far more than the $4 billion the market is giving it. Here is a great read on some of the possibilities of the company.(HERE)

With Hedge Fund Manager Eddie Lampert taking over the helm of the company on Feb 1st, we feel the time for shareholders to be rewarded is coming soon. After hours yesterday, Eddie Lampert filed another form 4 showing another purchase of 1.2 million shares worth over $54 million. His personal stake in the company along with his hedge fund total more than 57% of the outstanding shares, or 62 million shares. That is the kind of stake that can make or break a fund, and with Eddie in charge, it would be very easy for him to 'make' it.

We are betting on this story going forward via March calls, and will be looking to add some April calls sometime in the next few days. We stick by our prediction that one day we will wake up, and Sears Holdings (SHLD) will be an $80 stock.

 

 

3-5-2013 Watch List

 

After starting the day in the red, the market ramped all day to close in the green. The first positive close on a Monday in 2013. Futures are pointing to a 5 year high open on the S&P as well as nearly opening at an all-time high on the DOW (dont follow that so dont care to be honest). Some huge moves yesterday from GOOG, PCLN, LNKD, and CRM.

Folks continue to look for BETA in this market, and I think folks are using those 4 stocks right now to play this push. I had CRM calls from friday and tweeted/posted in chat the 195 weekly calls. I still like CRM to get over 190 this week so may add some more. Crazie Eddie added more shares to his stockpile and think this is another sign that he has some plans on the way. I will look for some calls at the open.

A nice read about young adults and their debt being at the lowest levels since 2005: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323293704578334761823150672.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories

 

That may sound bearish at first, but then if you think about it, there is a ton of opportunity to put that buying power to work. Obviously the college debt crisis will be a factor in the coming years, as the easy money used to make those loans, have/will create huge obligations that will be defaulted on.

 

I keep saying I will have a post on the market direction, and hope to have it finished today.

With gold and silver on the back burner and falling, and OIL prices stabilizing, folks will continue to find the best place to put their money to get a return. Like water finiding a tiny crack in a wall, it will find it regardless of how hard or long it takes. I think we see $155 on SPY short term, and will re-evaluate once we get there.

 

Here are some of the analyst/news pieces today:

 

 

(SHLD)

Sears Chairman Lampert discloses purchase of 1.24M shares

Sears Holdings (SHLD) disclosed in a regulatory filing that its Chairman of the Board and CEO Eddie Lampert acquired an aggregate of 1,239,056 shares of Sears common stock from investors for aggregate consideration of approximately $54.96M using personal funds in a private transaction on March 4.

(GOOG)

Google price target raised to $1,000 from $875 at Jefferies

Jefferies increased its price target on Google as the firm believes that several elements of the company's business - including commerce initiatives, YouTube, and mobile CPCs - are gaining momentum. The firm maintains a Buy rating on the shares.

INTC+)

Intel foundry business could reach 6% of revenue by 2017, says JPMorgan

JPMorgan believes that Intel (INTC) is likely to gain Cisco (CSCO) and Brocade (BRCD) as customers for its foundry business next, and could get some business from Apple (AAPL) over the next few years. The firm, however, doesn't expect the business to add more than 12c to Intel's EPS by 2017 and it maintains a Neutral rating on Intel.

VRTX+)

Vertex flu treatment may become large franchise, says William Blair

After Vertex (VRTX) reported data for its flu treatment, William Blair believes that the data appears promising and superior in some ways to Roche's (RHHBY) Tamiflu, a multibillion dollar franchise. The firm doesn't think the Street has assigned any value to Vertex's flu treatment, and it maintains an Outperform rating on the stock.

 

With the market gapping, will keep it tight at the open. Here are the two positions I may add at open or shortly thereafter:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
SHLD CALL $50.42 March 0.16 0.16
CRM CALL $195.00 weekly 0.21 0.19

 

 

I still love OPEN,SAM, BNNY, and SODA.

 

Don’t forget LeeMalone’s webinar on Condors at 4:30pm est on Thursday. Link will be up today.

 

Happy Trading!

 

- JB

3-4-2013 Watch List

 

We start the first full week of March with futures red. Asia sold off overnight as some of the housing stocks in China hit limit down on concerns that Government actions may hinder growth. Japan was the only green market as stronger hints of increasing the easing programs lifted stocks. Europe is mixed this morning and futures are off their lows.

 

With earnings season dwindling down, it will be time to look for some overbought/oversold stocks to play some trends. I will have a list up in the forum tomorrow.

 

If you missed the week ahead last night, here it is: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/forum/showthread.php/342-The-Week-Ahead-with-UPB-and-JImmy-3-3-2013

 

Also, LeeMalone will be hosting a Webinar Thursday at 4:30, the registration link will be up later today and will be in the watchlist going forward.

 

It seems like a slow morning in regards to analyst changes, but below are a few that stood out:

 

Yahoo! upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays

Barclays upgraded Yahoo! and said its minority stakes in Alibaba and Yahoo! Japan are not fully reflected in valuation. The analyst now assumes Alibaba is worth is $55B, which equates to more than $2/share to Yahoo!. The firm sees further upside to shares upon monitization of assets. Price target raised to $26 from $22.

MRK)

Merck upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill

(ULTA)

Ulta Salon initiated with a Buy at Sterne Agee

Target $102.

Macy's among better positioned deprtment stores, says Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank expects Macy's to benefit from further enhancement to its omnichannel strategy this year and the firm thinks that Macy's is one of the higher income focused retailers that is well-positioned in the current environment. The firm raised its target on the stock to $47 from $43 and maintains a Buy rating.

 

Will look to add to positions in SODA, SAM, and OPEN as I think all three are in the midst of a multi-day/week trend higher.

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
SAM CALL $165.00 March 0.45 0.40
OPEN CALL $65.00 March 0.30 0.25
SODA CALL $52.50 March 0.30 0.30

 

 

May also look to get some BNNY calls on any dip on offering news.

 

Lets have a great Monday!

 

- JB

3-1-2013 Watch List

Welcome to March!

The market melted higher most of yesterday, as the DOW nearly touched all-time highs, only to succumb to a last hour sell-off that put the markets in the red. The futures are down almost .50% this morning as bad data in China and Europe have pulled down world markets.

 

I think we will be resilient once again, and the markets will find their footing after the open. There were some nice earning reports from CRM, GPS, and DECK last night, as well as better then expected results from BBY this morning. ISRG, which had fallen over 11% in the last 5 minutes of trading yesterday, has recovered some of that and firms are out defending the company and it’s shares.

 

PCLN also saw an upgrade this morning. Even with another SAM downgrade yesterday, I still like the stock for $180+ in the next few months. Here is a link to my latest thoughts on the company: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/boston-beer-sam-follow-up/

 

Lavender is a cool chick.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes for this morning:

 

Intuitive Surgical weakness a buying opportunity, says Goldman

Goldman views the FDA investigation into its robotic surgical system as a buying opportunity as it believes robotic surgery will prevail over conventional surgery. Shares are Buy rated with a $715 price target. :theflyonthewall.com

Salesforce.com price target raised to $180 from $175 at RW Baird

Baird raised its price target on Salesforce.com following Q4 results. The firm cited its organic growth and increased guidance for 2014. Baird also expects churn rates to drop and for Platform to remain its fastest growing business segment. Shares are Outperform rated. :theflyonth

Salesforce.com price target raised to $200 from $175 at RBC Capital

RBC Capital increased its target on Salesforce.com after the company reported stronger than expected results. The firm maintains an Outperform rating.

priceline.com upgraded at Lazard Capital

As previously reported, Lazard Capital upgraded priceline.com (PCLN) to Buy from Neutral. The firm believes recent weakness over increased Expedia (EXPE) competition is overdone. The firm sees priceline.com and Expedia as share gainers and that ramping marketing will yield growth beyond consensus. priceline.com price target is $859

Intuitive Surgical shares should be bought on weakness, says William Blair

After analyzing an FDA survey of ten surgeons regarding Intuitive Surgical's da Vinci surgical system, William Blair does not believe that the product will be found to be unsafe, and it doesn't expect surgeons who use it to be constrained in any way. The firm views the survey as routine and maintains an Outperform rating on the shares. :theflyonthe

Intuitive Surgical upgraded to Buy from Hold at Cantor

Cantor said the sell-off in Intuitive Surgical on the FDA's da Vinci investigation into procedure safety is overdone. The firm sees limited risk from the investigation and raised its price target to $575 from $550 to reflect mid-to-high teens earnings growth. :theflyonthewall.com

Salesforce.com price target raised to $200 from $180 at Roth Capital

Roth Capital increased its price target on Salesforce.com after the company reported stronger than expected Q4 results. The firm maintains a Buy rating on the shares.

 

I will be playing it light today but may try to flip some CRM calls, as well as try and play NFLX and GOOG for some risky flips.

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
CRM CALL $180.00 Weekly 1.93 0.40
GOOG CALL $805.00 Weekly 1.80 0.40
NFLX CALL $195.00 Weekly 0.30 0.20

 

 

Lets finish off the week and style!

 

- JB