All posts by jimmybob

10-23 Watchlist

It was quite a roller coaster yesterday as the market recovered triple digit loses in the last hour of the day, the biggest swing in 7 months. I keep thinking SPY needed to hit $142 for a bounce, and we almost had it yesterday. Well looks like we will open below that today after another earning miss, this one from Dupont. Futures are deep in the red for the first time in recent memory. Concerns about Spain and Italy bond yields rising, coupled with the poor  U.S. earnings so far, and the debate last night disappointing Romney supporters have sparked this fade. We shall see if we can hold this area or is this the start of a prolonged correction? Time will tell, but $142 is the line in the sand for me short term here.

We had some decent plays yesterday. OPEN was on the watchlist but ramped higher at the open, and the calls ran from us. NFLX did explode out of the gate and the NOV 90 calls ran from .40 to .93(we were the first on the planet to get those at the LOD). WDC and CALL calls were the losers, with WDC reporting great earnings but issuing an outlook that missed expectations.

We had some nice earning reports this morning and we will be looking at FB, NFLX, PNRA, and BWLD at the close. WHR and COH reported some nice earnings this morning and maybe worth a look at some calls. I am currently holding the NFLX NOV 90 and 100 calls and will look to close most of them (or some of them) before the close.

Options I am looking at today:

 

Stock Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
WHR Call $100 NOV 0.27 0.25
COH Call $65 NOV 0.30 0.30
SODA Call $45 NOV .35 x .40 0.40
WYNN Call $120 Oct 0.41 0.41

 

Looking to play NOV calls on COH and WHR. I will wait till possibly mid-day on SODA - I will have a blog writeup on that one so hang tight. Love WYNN for earnings, nothing is certain but folks in the 120s yesterday may get a bump on the premiums after the company issued the earnings date, which is tomorrow after the bell.

I still like NFLX, and i am one of the few that do. They need to beat expectations around sub growth or the stock will tumble another 20%. If they beat, it will run 20%. Should be volatile.

Lets have a great day, hopefully the market finds support here and melts higher the rest of the day. One last article posted by harley in the chat and figure i would share: http://www.nanex.net/aqck2/3635.html  Just shows the manipulation in the market and the sort of thing that I think will eventually be our black swan event.

- Jimmybob

 

NetFlix(NFLX) DeJaVu

We have written about NetFlix(NFLX) quite a few times this past year. Sometimes we had it right but we have had the stock wrong as well.  We noticed this article pre-market on NFLX today. While most may think this article may not seem to be the type to move a stock, we beg to differ. It shows the companies commitment to it's international growth. Any hints of increased market share in existing countries while maintaining current subscribers in the U.S. in it's earnings report after the bell on Tuesday, will lead to a massive squeeze above $90.

It is very easy for folks to paint a bearish picture for NetFlix(NFLX) and the BEARS have been successful in driving the stock price down from the $300s to $50 in a years time. But we now thinks it's time for the bulls to come out of hiding, and push this stock above multi-month highs. Here is one picture the bulls can paint for the stock going higher. International growth. Check out GOOG searches for NetFlix in Canada and the UK in the last year below.

We currently have NOV $90 and $100 calls and will be adding more throughout the day today and Tuesday.

10-22 Watchlist

 

Earnings jitters took hold last week as the market tumbled friday, and some stocks were creamed like GOOG, AAPL. LNKD, PCLN, and other favorites. Despite all this, the market was up fractionally last week. This week should prove very interesting with  a tremendous amount of earning reports on deck. If the trend of lowered outlooks and misses continues, the market could continue its fade here. I like the SPY to find a bottom near $142 and then work its way higher. I am still a short term bull, but long term near. SPY 50dma is 143.20 so that could provide support.

World markets are mixed to mostly higher this morning and Stock Futures are slightly higher. CAT reported earnings this morning and reduced its 2012 target, after already lowering is 2015 outlook last month. Some look to CAT for guidance on the world economy so if CAT is lower guidance, that usually is not a good thing.

Some earnings after the bell: WDC Western Digital , YHOO Yahoo, and TXN Texas Instruments . UPB had his week ahead video and spoke about as many of the earnings plays as possible. Keep checking the blog page for the uploaded video(It's not up yet).

Here are the potential positions I am looking to get today:

 

Stock Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
OPEN Call $52.50 NOV 0.50 0.50
WDC Call $40 NOV 0.52 0.52
NFLX Call $90 NOV 0.42 0.42
CALL Call $25 NOV 0.65 0.65
WYNN Call $120 Oct .76 x .91? 0.50

 

I always like OPEN and there were rumors of YHOO being interested in them. OPEN has sold from the $50s in Sept and I think this catalyst should help regain it's footing. WDC reports after the bell so risky calls, but again a stock that could regain it's footing. $NFLX reports tomorrow after the bell, i am one of the few folks who still like the story so play at your own risk!

CALL was a great play friday with some huge earnings, and I think it continues today. Already have the NOV $25s but will look for more. WYNN chart said $120 last week, but stock did not cooperate. $120 calls look pricey so will wait for a hopeful pullback to enter at .50 and below.

Stay tuned to chat for possible entry and exits. I will also post on private twitter account (DIAMOND)

 

Lets have a great start to the week!!

- jimmybob

MagicJack Vocaltec Ltd (CALL)

Stocks left to rot are usually the ones that come back to life with reckless abandon and it looks like that is the case with MagicJack Vocaltec Ltd (CALL) . The company reported earnings this morning that smashed estimates while also raising guidance. The CEO spoke about some great innovative products on the way in 2013  which is a very good sign as well.  MagicJack is one of those products everyone wonders how they make it happen, and how they can offer for such a great price for the features. It sure looks like they know what they are doing and the prospect of more "Magic" is enough for me to look at some long term leap calls to go along with my short term call options on the stock.

It looks to me like folks are ditching the old pre-paid phone for magic jack as they go abroad. I guess the fears of a product becoming obsolete are off base.

Either way, like i said before, i think this stock was left to rot and will now come back to life in furious fashion as folks try chase performance(an adage we use alot here).

MagicJack Vocaltec Ltd (CALL) is currently trading at $22.50 and we think she goes over $23 sometime today.

Happy Trading!

10-19 Watchlist

 

What an exciting day for once yesterday, as we had some nice intra-day moves on stocks like $GOOG, $PCLN, and $LNKD.  Being in ahead of moves like we had on GOOG during the market hours can equal huge returns. There were some folks in the $700 puts that went from $3 to $30 in 4 minutes. Why we trade options! GOOGs early earnings report caused a sell-off in other tech names like PCLN and LNKD. I think those will be nice movers next week, so definitely need to keep an eye on those. WYNN started its move to $120, the faded with the rest of the market, i still have hope on the $120C. SODA had some expansion news that sent the stock up to 40.60, but then that faded under $39. CAT has made a killer move this week from the lows, and UPB has been all over it (http://stocktwits.com/message/9997640) . HRS is another stock brought to us by BullBear based on this news :  (HRS)Harris awarded Department of Navy contract worth up to $397M And if anyone can confirm this as a new release https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=c4840567ca9fadfea10615b6e4455032&tab=core&_cview=1 . The NOV 50 Calls were the play at .45/.50/.55 .

Today brings option expiration for OCT calls, so should be a fun day. Typically today is one of the most Manipulated days of the year as GOOG tends to PIN exactly to a price every friday after earnings, which is always at an even number like 690 or 700. What I am watching or playing today:

 

Stock Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
ISRG Call $550 Oct 0.30 0.30
ISRG Call $555 Oct 0.15 0.15
CALL Call 22.50 Oct 0.30 0.30
CALL Call $25 Oct 0.10 0.10
NFLX Call $70 Oct 0.14 0.10

 

CALL reported nice earnings so looking for a squeeze. ISRG upgraded by BAC to $620 so expect another 3-5% move today. $NFLX chart looks ready to break $70 again.

Will have more in chat and via twitter. Lets have a great day! I will not be in chat until about 10am this morning.

- JImmybob