Stocks closed lower for the 3rd session in a row on Thursday, with the S&P dropping .25%. Asia markets closed mostly in the green overnight while Europe indexes are in the red this morning reversing early gains. U.S. futures are pointing to a lower open as I write this, the Dollar, Yields, and Oil are higher while Gold is lower.
It was a choppy session for markets on Thursday, with the SPY trying, but failing to hold that $450 handle. Markets are now down 3 sessions in a row, if it makes it 4 today, will be quite the bearish chatter over the weekend. After the close AMZN smashed estimates and raised guidance while Apple posted a mixed bag, besting estimates but missing iPhone sales numbers and offering up some iffy guidance which implies more YoY revenue declines. The market needs to find some bidders here today, with the SPY closing above that $450 handle, or I fear that 50dma will start coming into play at $438:
FVRR catapulted out of the gate at the open yesterday, opening at $31 before trading up to $34 and closed up 17.69%. A great sign but need more for my calls. That $37 handle is the next test. If it can break that, mid-$40s should come quick. Will likely continue to just hold my Aug strikes for now while looking at Sept strikes if it can clear $35:
WW reported a mixed bag of earnings yesterday, beating on EPS but missing on revenues while also lower FY revenue guidance. I really don't think WW is a revenue story right now, it is a turn-around story. And if there are silver linings in the report, is that they saw their first in-year subscriber growth ever. WW business is very cyclical as folks signup for the New year, only to cancel later as they lose their motivation..ect. So to see WW grow subscribers outside that window is a big deal:
That sub add also doesn't include their sequence acquisition. Sequence saw 37k members, up 40% since they acquired them in April. The issue, and why WW lowered revenue guidance, is the weight-loss drug shortage and the ability for sequence to fulfill subscriptions. Once that issue is alleviated, WW expects exponential growth in that area. I still love the WW as a turnaround story and think the market will start pricing it in way before the turn-around is in full-force. It is trading lower in the pre-market. If it holds the $10 handle today I may look for more 2024 strikes. Will also look to have my thoughts on this weekend on WW so you can better understand my bull case:
I added some speculative BHC calls. The company best estimates, raised guidance, and actually made a profit - its been many years since the company has done that. They do $8 bil in revenues but only a $3 bil market cap. Think this can go on a run into the low-mid teens in the coming weeks:
YOU closed green yesterday. Shorts out of ammo? If it can clear and hold that $25 handle I may start looking at Sept strikes:
TNDM reported an abysmal Q after the close yesterday. Thankfully banked some profits on the calls, but will watch the last few expire and likely will not revisit TNDM for sometime:
OLED reported a great Q after the close and is receiving positive analyst commentary this morning. May try some lotto calls today for a move to $160 or so:
My weekly TWLO calls expire today. Will look to add some more into next week. The company reports earnings Tuesday after the close so would want to see some premium build before then so I can take some off and ride some free:
ULTA has closed lower 12 times over the past 13 sessions - mind-boggling to me after their great earnings report last Q and on the heels of ELF's great report. Still eyeing some calls to encompass their earnings at the end of the month:
And some lottos for today: CMG, ROKU, SPOT, and TEAM.
And here is what I am watching today: TWLO, YOU, WW, FVRR, BHC, CMG, SPOT, TEAM, ROKU, OSTK, ULTA, SHW, BIDU, ALGN, ISRG, ANET, SSYS, BLK, Z, IBM, NFLX, QQQ, AXSM, and SAGE.
Let's have a great day!
-JB