The S&P closed down .26% last week and in the red for the 2nd week in a row. Asia markets fell overnight while Europe indexes are modestly higher this morning. U.S. futures are pointing to a lower open, the Dollar and Yields are in the green while Oil and Gold is lower.
And this is what UPB is reading this morning: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/morning-reads-301/
It was a choppy week for stocks last week, with the S&P failing to find any sustained rally and remaining under that $450 handle. This week is mostly about retail. We get July retail sales numbers tomorrow along with earnings from WMT, HD, TGT, and others. We also get the Fed minutes on Wednesday. Considering there is a large time gap between last meeting and the next meeting at the end of the September, these minutes hold a little more weight than most. Expectations are for no hike in September and then the probabilities for a hike at Octobers meeting go up. As long as the tone in the minutes are not overly hawkish, think markets could find a bid.
China is also back in the headlines. First it was poor economic data including imports and export data severely missing expectations. Now it is back to property developer defaults - remember that Evergrande fiasco that no-one talks about anymore?. Seems every time something like this comes folks cite it as the next 'black swan' event. Time will tell, but likely another one of those headlines that slowly disappears:
That 50dma is looming at $442.36. I hate to say it, but the market just feels like a giant ice-cube melting. If buyers don't come in soon think there will be a flush back into the low $430s. Will use that 50dma as a spot I start adding some puts/hedges for that potential outcome:
Here are some of the implied moves for earnings this week
SE is a name I may nibble some calls on, they report tomorrow before the open. SE was one of my top 5 stocks in 2020 when it was in the $30s. It ran to $200 that year and nearly $400 the year after before falling with the rest of the momentum names. A great story and think one of these earnings will mark the start of a new uptrend:
VKTX had another solid session on Friday, closing up over 1% and over that $15 handle. Still eyeing later dated strikes to encompass data in the fall:
Another great session for WW as well, closing up nearly 6% on Friday. Still looking to add some later strikes on this one as well and also still working on my DD piece - hopefully out later today or tomorrow. Thanks for the patience:
ULTA failed to hold that 50dma on Thursday and had a lackluster session on Friday. Will need a big breakout this week for my calls. Still like the name into earnings on the 24th and will be watching for more opportunities to add some strikes:
ANET looks interesting here again after its blow-out quarter. If it holds $174.50 or so today may look to add some strikes to play for a move back into the mid-$180s:
ALGN finally showed some signs of life after nearing its 50dma on Friday. Any signs of continuation and I will add some weekly strikes for a bounce to $370+:
As I have been saying the past week or so, I don't have my bear suit on but I am open to more downside. FAZ/TZA calls, QQQ puts and may look at some individual names like NOW, AVGO, and LRCX for some spec puts if we break that 50dma on the SPY.
And this is what I am watching today: FZA, TZA, NOW, ANET, AVGO, LRCX, WW, VKTX, ULTA, SE, CMG, QQQ, ALGN, VKTX, CMG, SPOT, TEAM, ROKU, ISRG, BLK, IBM, and NFLX.
Let's have a great day!
-JB