August 13th, 2014 Watchlist

Stocks looks poised to open sharply higher this morning, with stock futures seeing strong buying overnight.  Yesterday we rallied out of the gate, slowly faded, tried to break $193, and then rallied into the close.

This morning stocks are back at yesterdays highs.  The question is... can we hold these gains or will we see them melt away?

Yesterday evening $KING was taken to the woodshed post earnings, with an over 20% drop.  $CREE was clobbered as well.  This morning $M  Macy's is falling to pieces on its earnings report.  $DE is also struggling to limit losses after its earnings report.

Earnings continue tonight with $NTAP $CSCO $NDLS to name a few.  I am in some $NDLS calls, which certainly is a high risk trade.  Considering the reaction we've been seeing to many earnings report, and also taking the $NDLS chart into consideration, you would think $NDLS will see a big drop tonight.  One trade I may employ is selling before the close is $NDLS rallies today.  We shall see.

I bought some $FUEL calls yesterday for an oversold bounce trade.

All these negative earnings moves, negative market sentiment, negative global back drop, negative economic data, and yet stock futures are up over .5%.  We sit within range of record stock prices.  It's a resilient market, and remains one that will defy those calling for the big correction.

$AMZN is up near the $327 level early on this morning.  $AAPL is poised for a positive open, and $GOOGL looks to finally break out of its doldrums.

$VXX looks set to bust back below the $30 level today as volatility starts to settle down.  I must admit, I like the movements we've seen in the market.  I also like the fact we've pulled back from record stock prices.  There is nothing wrong with some selling to keep the bulls honest.

Here are some headlines, analyst remarks, and a few links:

 

http://online.wsj.com/articles/behind-the-collapse-of-portugals-espirito-santo-empire-1407879423?mod=e2tw

http://online.wsj.com/articles/japan-economy-contracts-sharply-in-april-june-1407889750

 

ECB CONTINUES TO THREATEN FURTHER POLICY ACTION IN THE WAKE OF WEAK ECONOMIC DATA AND THE CONTINUED DISINFLATIONARY THREAT

U.S. equity futures are pointing to a higher open against a back drop of global markets having firmed and oil prices having fallen to a 13 month low. The lower oil prices have come despite the turmoil in Iraq and Russia and gloomy economic news from Asia. China reported surprisingly low credit growth in July, with financing hitting its lowest point since October 2008. Investors in the U.S. will be watching retail sales figures for July, business inventories for June and the weekly Department of Energy inventory reports.

ofA/Merrill says to buy Salesforce.com heading into 2H

BofA/Merrill recommends buying Salesforce.com heading into 2H 2014 given expectations for respectable billings on the August 21 earnings release, accelerating income growth and billings post ET anniversaries, product disclosures that will enhance visibility, and a potential catalyst from the DreamForce conference on October 14. Shares are Buy rated with a $73 price target

Dick's Sporting weakness overdone, says UBS

UBS said the weakness in Dick's Sporting Goods due to concerns about its gold segment are overdone and that the stock is likely poised for a rebound. The firm believes upcoming Q2 results will be better than feared, as foot and apparel trends remain strong, global soccer events should have a positive contribution, and promotional activity is clearing out inventory. The firm has a Buy rating and $53 price target on Dick's shares

BofA/Merrill lowers Macau forecasts

BofA/Merrill lowered its 2014 Macau gross gaming revenue forecast to +5% year-over-year from +12% due to a slowdown in July mass trends. As a result, the firm lowered Las Vegas Sands' (LVS) price target to $88 from $95 and Wynn Resorts' (WYNN) to $260 from $270. :theflyont

Kate Spade sell-off yesterday overdone, says Sterne Agee

Sterne Agee views the 25% pullback in shares of Kate Spade yesterday as overdone. The firm views the sell-off as a buying opportunity and keeps a Buy rating on the stock with a reduced price target of $38

King Digital downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray downgraded King Digital to Neutral citing a limited likelihood of EBITDA growth through 2015 following the company's reduced outlook. Piper sees low visibility on King's ability to create hits outside of the Candy franchise and lowered its price target for shares to $16 from $28

Amazon.com announces credit card reader Amazon Local Register

Amazon.com announced Amazon Local Register, what it calls a "secure card reader and mobile app that provides local businesses with the tools they need to quickly and easily accept credit and debit cards from a smartphone or tablet and keep track of their growing business." It added that customers who sign up for Amazon Local Register before October 31 will also receive a promotional rate of 1.75% per card swipe on all major credit and debit cards until January 1, 2016

Michael Kors pullback a buying opportunity, says Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank recommends using the weakness in shares of Michael Kors as a buying opportunity. Deutsche believes the Kors brand is performing "exceedingly well" and points out promotions are only modestly up year-over-year. The firm views the current valuation as compelling and keeps a Buy rating on Michael Kors with a $95 price target

Amazon.com could sell 1M-2M phones in first year, says Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray estimates Amazon.com could sell 1M-2M Fire phones in the first twelve months, adding the product will not have an impact on the company's financials. After testing the phone, Piper says the Fire is a "quality phone but lacks uniqueness or price needed to attract measurable market share." It expects the phone to quickly improve and keeps an Overweight rating on the stock

Facebook coverage resumed with a Buy at Stifel

Target $95

Google coverage resumed with a Buy at Stifel

Target $700

LinkedIn coverage resumed with a Buy at Stifel

Target $250

 

Trades I am looking to enter:

$GOOGL $585 WC $.40

$AAPL $96 WV $.60

$JPM $56.50 WC $.30