Todays is really Wednesday. Yes I briefly thought yesterday that it wasn't Tuesday but was really Wednesday. I was thankful to have an extra day until options expiration when I realized that yesterday was Tuesday and not Wednesday. Here we are... it is really Wednesday.
UPB HERE this morning. JB is away for the week which is probably why the market slid late in yesterdays session.... ehhh probably not....
Stock futures are higher after yesterdays late day collapse. Since the Virus market crumble in March I recall quite a few of these Tuesday late day collapses. They all seem to have at least a little excuse to get them going. One was a CNBC interview with.. who was it Chanos? Someone I can't recall... he was calling the market move unsustainable.
That commentary started the selling and it accelerated from there. It felt like that yesterday.. as if someone got the ball rolling and it just kept going and going. Just like that Tuesday decline a few months ago... this one too is seeing a recovery. Will it last?
I continue to see some cautionary posts on financial media aka Twitter. Certainly with stocks near record highs and now the leader, the NASDAQ, downn 3 days in a row... its not a time to be throwing caution to the wind.
My short term perspective in uncertain. However I don't think we got to $SPY $337 yesterday only to fall from there. I think $339 and new record highs are coming. With price action getting to $350. MY chart from yesterday:
Whats going to help fuel that? We are already seeing it. Financials and some of the other laggards are taking the baton from tech and running with it.
Bonds are pulling back and that is helping to fuel the financials rally as well.
With that I entered some $GS calls late in the day yesterday. I posted the chart yesterday I'll share it again today....
I'm a little uncertain short term. Could three down days in a row for tech be signalling a potential top? Or a leadership change?
I entered some ROKU calls late yesterday as well. I like the chart. Earnings were awesome. And the analysts are drooling over each other trying to out raise their peers prices targets. Yesterday after the close $ROKU had another analysts chime in with a buy and a $185 price target.
I plan on locking in profits out of the gate as we have seen the market roll over early Monday and Tuesday. The proverbial beach ball drowning attempt. Yesterday we had an afternoon drowning attempt as well. Of course at some point the ball will deflate, the market will pull back and not bounce. I don't know if we are there yet.
My lone concern about this market remains inflation. As long as the FED can keep using all their tools this market heads higher. But if inflation comes in a meaningful way... that would put the upside into jeopardy. I don't think we are there yet, but yesterdays PPI numbers weren't deflationary... thats for sure.
NTR I closed out the weekly calls and moved out a few weeks. This morning a nice tgt raise.
|Nutrien price target raised to $48 from $45 at RBC Capital|
|RBC Capital analyst Andrew Wong raised the firm's price target on Nutrien to $48 from $45 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after its Q2 results. The company had a "solid" quarter with "stronger" margins in the Retail segment, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Wong adds that Nutrien's continued free cash flow generation should be supported by the company's execution and improvements in the underlying ag and fertilizer markets in the second half of 2020.|
and the ROKU call afterhours --->>
Deutsche Bank analyst Jeffrey Rand initiated coverage of Roku with a Buy rating and $185 price target. The "market leader" in the connected TV market with close to 50% market share of global CTV streaming hours has done an "impressive job" of building out the largest installed base in the industry, said Rand. With Roku already having an installed base of 43M users and the transition to streaming still in the early innings, he thinks the company can continue to grow revenue at a 30%+ rate for "at least the next few years," Rand tells investors.
I have some of my Aug $40 Twitter calls left. I still like the potential breakout chart. Yesterdays subscription headline popped the stock a few bucks in a minute.
As far as today is concerned I'll be looking to lock in GS and ROKU calls.
And if we get the usual beach ball drowning attempt I'll be looking to grab some calls on the potential bounce out of the water on some of the beaten down tech names such as MDB OKTA FSLY DDOG. And finally I am still looking for entry into BABA. I think it has a decent chance to break out ahead of earnings.
And that is all.
Have a great day 🙂
TOP UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES -
- Gordon Haskett upgraded Home Depot (HD) to Accumulate from Hold.
- Cowen upgraded Marathon Petroleum (MPC) to Outperform from Market Perform as they feel the market is under-appreciating the capitalization improvement as a result of the Speedway sale.
- JP Morgan upgraded American Eagle (AEO) to Overweight from Neutral highlighting valuation and their view that the AEO story is at a positive multi-year inflection point.
- Deutsche Bank downgraded Deere (DE) to Hold from Buy; given that DE stock has reached $193, putting it above their $185 price target, firm had to come to a decision about whether they could justify a higher target multiple and/or higher earnings estimates - and the answer was 'no' on both accounts. As such, they downgrade DE to Hold, as they now see modest downside to their unchanged $185 price target (based on 18x their NTM EPS forecast in 12 months' time).
- BTIG Research steps to the sidelines, downgrading to Neutral, on Broadridge Financial (BR) citing the recent rally.
- Deutsche Bank started coverage on Roku (ROKU) with a Buy, $185 tgt on the premise that the stock deserves a premium valuation owing to its competitive position in the CTV market.
- Citigroup launched coverage on Cree (CREE) at Neutral, $82 tgt as they feel the stock is already pricing certain benefits and trading on growth estimates for C22.
- Morgan Stanley upped their target on Ferrari (RACE) to a Street-high $265 from $180 citing their favorable view of the company's growth.
- Analysts at JP Morgan added Target (TGT) to their Analyst Focus List; firm's field work/data analysis indicated TGT's mid-to-high teens 1Q exit rate comp likely sustained into this quarter.