April 20th, 2022 Watch List

Markets staged a strong rally yesterday, with the S&P adding 1.6% while the Nasdaq closed up over 2%. Asia markets finished mixed overnight while Europe indexes are in the green this morning. U.S. futures have reversed overnight losses and are now pointing to a green open, the Dollar, Yields, and Gold are lower while Oil is higher.

And here is my morning rant from yesterday if you missed it: JB Pre-Market Rant – April 19, 2022

And my rant near the end of the day: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/jb-closing-rant-april-19th-2022/

Stocks reversed opening losses to push into the green yesterday and they never looked back. It seemed there was a never-ending bid for stocks into the afternoon, something it was lacking on Monday. There was no true catalyst to explain the move, though some could point to JNJ earnings. After the close yesterday, NFLX reported its first subscriber decline in over a decade of 200k, though it would have been a net 500k add if they did not suspend service in Russia. Glaring as well, was that North America saw a 600k net loss. Netflix is blaming account sharing and competition for the results and is looking Into other options that include ads. I am sure there will be buyout rumors in the coming days, just like with PTON. Sure there will be some swings today and into Friday so will be watching, but think upside is limited.

After 6 days of some back and forth consolidation, seems like the SPY is ready to break the 200dma and head over $450:

Not going to trade overly aggressive for it, but think a green close today all but confirms it pending any crazy headlines.

As outlined on my watchlist on Monday and Tuesday, I went and added some ISRG calls for earnings after the close Thursday. The stock was moving hard after the open on the heels of JNJ's earnings, where their Med Tech sales came in way above expectations. I was able to cover the costs on the trade and will look to take a few more for profits before the close tomorrow, where I will likely hold the rest as a spec play. If not will look to add some further out of the money calls:

BIIB soared out of there gate yesterday and closed the session of nearly 5%. I was able to close some calls out for 100% and some more for over 400%. Still holding a few for a possible test and break of $230:

IBM reported a strong earnings report after the close yesterday and is higher in the pre-market. It is also receiving PT upgrades this morning:

Going to need to open above $133 or so for my calls to hold their gains. Think this can be the start of a move towards and above $140:

I added some ROKU calls yesterday as a sympathy play into NFLX earnings. Within an hour of adding the calls I was able to close some out for over 100% and held the rest overnight. ROKU is getting hit in the pre-market and the calls will get crushed this morning. Going to put a crush on the last of my calls.

Tesla reports earnings after the close. Premiums are too rich for me but will be interesting to see their report and how it trades.

Still eyeing POOL, BURL, and ULTA as well today.

Here are the analyst changes of note:

Netflix price target lowered to $280 from $342 at Wedbush
Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter lowered the firm's price target on Netflix to $280 from $342 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares following quarterly results. Netflix blamed its Q1 miss on broadband penetration, password sharing, competition, and macro-factors, including inflation, Russia/Ukraine, and return to life post-COVID, the analyst notes. In his view, Netflix's Q1 results underscore five primary issues, namely market saturation in its largest market, competition for content from other bidders, competition for wallet share from direct competitors, inflation, and the effects of a pull-forward to 2020 from shelter-in-place that are only now reversing
Netflix downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
UBS analyst John Hodulik downgraded Netflix to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $355, down from $575. The analyst cites the proliferation of password sharing and "robust competition", even though he sees no noticeable engagement issues while noting that price increase impacts are inline with expectations. Netflix is likely to remain a long term DTC winner, but rising competition, macro headwinds and market saturation will continue to weigh on the company's sub growth, Hodulik tells investors in a research note
Domino's Pizza price target lowered to $440 from $490 at MKM Partners
MKM Partners analyst Brett Levy lowered the firm's price target on Domino's Pizza to $440 from $490 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on Restaurants heading into Q1 earnings. Many of the "moving parts" facing the group are "skewing negatively", including pricing-, inflation-, and demand-related, issues, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Levy adds that his Q1 EPS view of $3.09 on Domino's includes sales forecast for a modestly negative domestic comp and an international SSS decline of about 1%, each of which are "largely in-line with the Street's thinking
BioXcel Therapeutics shares remain significantly undervalued, says Canaccord
Canaccord analyst Sumant Kulkarni noted BioXcel Therapeutics announced a strategic financing for up to $260M which he said reduces a perceived near-term overhang while execution remains the key. The financing will allow the company to focus on execution and driving shareholder value and said the shares remain significantly undervalued
Netflix price target lowered to $300 from $409 at Truist
Truist analyst Matthew Thornton lowered the firm's price target on Netflix to $300 from $409 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The company's reported Q1 and guided Q2 member adds "surprised to the downside" amid increased churn due to Russia spillover, competition, and saturation in mature markets, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Thornton adds that Netflix growth is not expected to reaccelerate until out-years in-part on password sharing and introduction of an ad-subsidized tier, with margins expected to be flat until revenue reaccelerates
Saia price target lowered to $275 from $350 at Raymond James
Raymond James analyst Patrick Tyler Brown lowered the firm's price target on Saia to $275 from $350 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Brown strongly believes that positive impacts from Saia's pricing, freight mix, and operating efficiency initiatives are beginning to compound nicely, setting the stage for sustained solid margins, the analyst tells investors in a research note


And here is what I am watching today: ISRG, NFLX, POOL, BURL, ULTA, CMG, CUTR, and ALGN.

Let's have a great day!


JimmyBob (Scott)has been trading equities for over 15 years, a majority of which were OTC micro-cap stocks. He started trading high risk stock options over the past 7 years, and has proven winning trades in excess of 15,000%.

As one of the Co-Founders of optionmillionaires.com, Scott enjoys sharing his knowledge with other investors through timely blog posts, daily watch lists in the forum, weekly webinars, and helpful advice within the chatroom.

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