Yep. Did I really say that? A bear market?
Just like the last recession next stocks to record highs, the next bear market sent the stock market higher...
if that makes any sense at all.. which it doesn't
But neither does negative interest rates and Greece (or any of the other PIGS) having bonds priced like it has a lot less risk of default than the United States.
If you were just looking at $AAPL $MSFT $GOOGL $NVDA $TSLA $AMZN, you missed out on an ugly bear market in so many of the names that exploded higher after the March 2020 lows.
These stocks masked an under current of selling.
S&P500 record highs and yet the Zooms, Snapchats, LendingTree's, Magnite, Canopy Growth, Tilrays... well you get the point, they were getting clobbered day after day.
We had 50%+ pull backs in so many names. Other names fell 70-80%.
The market front ran the inevitable move by the FED to take a ladle full of punch out of the Caspian Sea sized bowl of easy monetary policy.
If interest rates were to somehow rise sharply in 2022, those money losing growth names that were given plenty of time to prove their worth in 2020 and some of 2021, will continue to pull back in 2022, with many possibly ceasing to exist at some point.
The question is.... will that happen?
It's almost cruel to say, but the stock market loves this Covid-19. Thankfully this new variant is less potent, at least judging from the early research. However its more contagious, which means its going to affect and infect so many more people.
Whats going to happen?
We are going to see a little slow down. The good news is.. its spreading so fast, its going to be over far quicker than the other variants.
Indeed I'm not Doctor. I'm just speculating.
And if my speculation is right, things will be back to normal far quicker this time around.
And... we could have a quick blip on the economic radar, enough to slow the FED down from its recently announced 3 rate hike expectations in 2022.
What does that mean for all the names that were swirling down the toilet for the better half of 2021?
Good question.
We do know stocks are a lot like Newtons law. A stock in motion stays in motion until... blah blah blah blah.
We do know a stock can continue moving lower far longer than you can remain solvent?
.... to be continued......
oh...
and merry XMAS eve eve eve