This has to be good for the market…

With the employment numbers from last week still weighing on the market, people have overlooked the news piece that will be a catalyst for the rest of the summer. Obama and Romney are now in a virtual dead heat in the polls. 

 

As you read the press, there continues to be a glaring trend:

Two new polls find that although the candidates are tied for overall support, Obama remains the more well-liked candidate and Romney is considered the more apt at handling the economy.

 

Now if the economy was still on the mend with the unemployment numbers going down, Obama was a lock for re-election. But with the increased concern about the U.S. economic recovery, Romney's background makes this race a tight one.  Do I think Romney has a shot come October? No way. We still feel the same way we did in January and April... the market will be Obama's ticket to re-election.

Of course besides the countless tools and instruments this government can deploy to continue to inflate equities, they also have history on their side. Election years tend to be extremely bullish, unless your name is George W.

S&P 500 Stock Market Returns
During Election Years
YearReturnCandidates
192843.6%Hoover vs. Smith
1932-8.2%Roosevelt vs. Hoover
193633.9%Roosevelt vs. Landon
1940-9.8%Roosevelt vs. Willkie
194419.7%Roosevelt vs. Dewey
19485.5%Truman vs. Dewey
195218.4%Eisenhower vs. Stevenson
19566.6%Eisenhower vs. Stevenson
1960.50%Kennedy vs. Nixon
196416.5%Johnson vs. Goldwater
196811.1%Nixon vs. Humphrey
197219.0%Nixon vs. McGovern
197623.8%Carter vs. Ford
198032.4%Reagan vs. Carter
19846.3%Reagan vs. Mondale
198816.8%Bush vs. Dukakis
19927.6%Clinton vs. Bush
199623%Clinton vs. Dole
2000-9.1%Bush vs. Gore
200410.9%Bush vs. Kerry
2008-37%Obama vs. McCain
2012?Obama vs. ?

I will be playing any dip on the call side, as this market will not break into correction territory until the fall.

Profile photo of jimmybobJimmyBob (Scott)has been trading equities for over 15 years, a majority of which were OTC micro-cap stocks. He started trading high risk stock options over the past 7 years, and has proven winning trades in excess of 15,000%.

As one of the Co-Founders of optionmillionaires.com, Scott enjoys sharing his knowledge with other investors through timely blog posts, daily watch lists in the forum, weekly webinars, and helpful advice within the chatroom.

More Posts by JB: View All | Private Twitter Feed: Access Now! (For Diamond Members)

Leave a Reply