Tag Archives: soda

4-4-13 Watchlist

 

The market pulled back yesterday as the ADP report missed expectations and folks took the opportunity to lock some profits. Unlike most of these pullbacks, there was limited dip buying until the very end of the day when the SPY jumped back over $155 and closed at $155.23. I guess we will have to wait longer for the SPY to close above the intraday high. This morning we have initial Jobless claims which came in worse then expected and is now at a 4 month high. Whether this is another reason to take profits or not will be seen. Futures dipped after the news and looks like the bright green open will be flat at minimum. Still think we are in a heads bulls win, tails bears lose environment for the next few months or until the unemployment goes under 7%.

Commodities continue to get punished with Gold and SLV buckling. Both should continue a downward spiral, which again raises the question ... where are folks to put their money to get a ROI?

Japan announced some extreme policies to, once again, try to kickstart their economy after years of deflation and slow/negative growth.

The US dollar is also stronger this morning.

 

FFIV broke to 92.50 yesterday and the 92.50 calls were a nice 3 bagger. CMG touched 330 then pulled back, still like her here. SODA broke under 50 and touch 48. Still have the 55 calls but they are not looking pretty.

 

Here are the morning analyst changes:

 

 

 

LULU lululemon checks show mild impact from luon issue, says William Blair

William Blair said its channel checks indicate a mild initial sales impact from lululemon's black luon quality shortfall. The firm believes management is taking swift action to address quality-control issues, and points out the company indicated last night that its Q1 earnings guidance is intact. William Blair continues to recommend purchase of lululemon shares on the recent pullback and keeps an Outperform rating on the name.

PNRA Goldman upgraded Panera based on strong unit growth trends, solid same-store-sales, increasing margins, and robust FCF deployment. Price target to $215 from $186.

DPZ Domino's Pizza downgraded to Buy from Conviction Buy at Goldman

Goldman removed Domino's from its Conviction Buy List due to share outperformance. Price target raised to $60 from $55.

SRPT Sarepta initiated with an Outperform at RW Baird

Target $63.

LULU lululemon downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital

RBC Capital downgraded lululemon due valuation and increased uncertainty following the departure of its Chief Product Officer. Price target lowered to $70 from $80.

PANL Universal Display upgraded to Buy from Hold at Needham

Needham upgraded Universal Display citing the recent pullback in shares and ramping revenue from Samsung with the launch of the Galaxy S4. The firm has a $35 price target for shares.

PPO Polypore upgraded to Buy from Hold at Topeka

Topeka upgraded Polypore citing valuation, lowered expectations, and expectations for a demand pick-up. Price target is $46.

MON Monsanto price target raised to $118-$120 from $104-$106 at Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo increased its target on Monsanto after the company reported higher than expected Q2 EPS. The firm notes that the company will look to use share buybacks to reduce the share count, and Wells keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.

SCHN Schnitzer Steel shares attractive at current levels, says DA Davidson

After Schnitzer reported slightly higher than expected Q2 EPS but lower than expected revenue, DA Davidson believes that Schnitzer's business could rebound quickly and the firm notes that the stock has reached multi-year lows. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

 

 

Will continue to hold my positions and may look to grab a few more today. Here are the strikes I am watching:

 

 

Stock TickerCall/PutStrikeExpirationClosing PriceEntry Price
ISRGCALL$515.00Weekly0.450.35
ISRGCALL$530.00Apr 15, 2013NA0.60
PCLNCALL$715.00Weekly0.520.35

 

 

ISRG chart shows possible breakout to $510 coming, volume yesterday leads me to believe it happens very soon. PCLN looks ready as well, just needs to hold over $705 today.

 

I had some issues putting the wrong restrictions on the blog post yesterday. Going forward I will put the watch list in the forum as well.

 

Stay tuned to chat and twitter for more updates. Lets have a great day!

 

- JB

 

Trade via Text Alert Today

 

As promised, we will try and have more information on any text trades that are sent out during the trading day. You can expect one/two texts per week depending on the market.

 

Todays text alert was SODA, the second time in the past few weeks I have alerted SODA. Last time SODA failed to hold 50, and the 52.50 calls @ .15 never materialized. ( http://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/sodastreamsoda-shares-set-to-rally/ ) Today, SODA broke solidly above $50 on strong volume, and has held its ground. A very bullish sign, and I think SODA breaks into new 52 week high territory in the next few sessions.

We bought the 55 calls @ .30/.35 and will sell half if they become a double. Then hold the rest for a possible move higher. Stay tuned for any changes on the trade.

- JB

1-15-2013 Watchlist

 

 

Earnings seasons is starting to kick it up a notch with GS and JPM reporting this morning, and EBAY reporting after the bell.  GS smashed estimates and is up nearly 4% PM. JPM beat as well but is down modestly as I write this. Tomorrrow we have C, BAC, BLK, and INTC so those could either provide a boost to the market, or give the market a reason to fade.

 

Only one I will be trying to play is BLK for tomorrow but then will look to play some of the high beta names next week, which we will cover in the week ahead on Sunday Jan 20th.

 

CMG came out with preliminary earnings for Q4 well below estimates on food cost issues. The stock fell 10% and is bouncing a little. Not sure I will be playin CMG on the long side for a bit as it looks like the growth story continues to be on hold.

 

AAPL broke solidly under $500 and it seems to have had a smaller impact on the market then i would have expected.

 

SODA and SHLD broke higher yesterday, only to fade EOD. I still like both here and added 52.50 SODA calls and some SHLD 49 and 50.42 calls.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes this morning:

 

Chipotle reports Q4 preliminary EPS $1.92-$1.97, consensus $2.09

Reports Q4 preliminary revenue $699.2M, consensus $690.86M.

 

(CMG)

Chipotle shares likely to be down meaningfully, says Jefferies

Jefferies expects shares of Chipotle to be down meaningfully after the company preannounced weaker than expected Q4 earnings. The firm says it's becoming increasingly clear that Chipotle's same-store-sales and modest pricing will not maintain margins and could yield 2013 earnings significantly below consensus. Jefferies keeps an Underperform rating on the stock with a $215 price target.

 

(DNKN)

Dunkin' Brands announces plans to enter Southern California

Dunkin' Donuts announced that it is expanding to Southern California. Specifically, the company is recruiting multi-unit franchisees for Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, San Bernardino, Ventura and Orange counties and expects restaurants in these markets will begin to open in 2015. The company is also interested in identifying qualified food service operators for a wide range of non-traditional venues including colleges and universities, casinos, military bases, supermarkets, airports and travel centers. In 2013, the company plans to open 330-360 net new restaurants in the United States with grow

 

CMG)

Chipotle comps likely to bottom at 1% in Q1, says William Blair

William Blair says food inflation pressured Chipotle's Q4 after the company preannounced weaker than expected earnings for the quarter. The firm expects Chipotle's comps to bottom at roughly 1% in Q1 before moving higher on a likely price increase. William Blair views Chipotle's business as very healthy and said it would be opportunistic buyers on share weakness. The firm keeps an Outperform rating on the stock.

 

(WYNN)

Wynn Resorts downgraded to Neutral from Buy at ISI Group

ISI Group downgraded Wynn Resorts due to valuation.

 

 

Here are some of the strikes i am looking at today:

 

 

Stock TickerCall/PutStrikeExpirationClosing PriceEntry Price
NFLXCALL$110.00weekly0.210.18
BLKCALL$230.00weekly0.600.50
LNKDCALL$120.00weekly0.640.60

 

 

I like BLK to continue the uptrend and break above $230 for earnings tomorrow. Heck, stock is correcting itself from a YEAR of underperforming the market for the wrong reasons. I think NFLX will get legs today or tomorrow after yesterdays fade and will play $110 calls for a flip. Also think LNKD will get some footing if FB stays green today.

 

That is all for now.. Lets have a great trading day!

- Jimmybob

1-15-2013 Watchlist

 

Futures are red but feels somewhat flat this morning with retail numbers due out this morning. Bernacke did not spill any beans or make any market moving remarks yesterday besides making it sound like QE infinity will not end in 2013. The market has closed somewhat flat the last two trading sessions, which is somewhat welcome as consolidation is needed again before we break to $150 on the SPY.

 

Tomorrow kicks off some more serious earnings with JPM before the bell and EBAY after the bell. Not playing those but both could swing the market a bit.

 

All the good news we have seen toward the end of the year on Solar has now turned sour. Another article out today on the oversupply of Solar modules in 2013: http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20130114PD203.html

 

Obviously puts on FSLR would be the play with the $30 probably the best bet. On watch for now but wont play today unless i see some serious volume to the downside.

 

 

Remember that Facebook has an event at 1pm  today so something to keep an eye on. Also, an article in the times today about FB taking over GOOG as top search engine if they added search..  http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/15/technology/fortunes-of-facebook-may-hinge-on-searches.html?ref=business&_r=0

 

DELL had a boatload of upgrades today on the B/O rumors so be a bit wary there trying to play that for now. Here are some the of the analyst changes this morning:

 

(AAPL)

Apple shares likely to rise on strong Q4 results, says Jefferies

Jefferies expects Apple to report strong Q4 results and issue guidance for Q1 slightly above consensus. The firm thinks the stock will rise on the results and reiterates a Buy rating on Apple with an $800 price target.

 

(AAPL)

Apple weakness a buying opportunity, says RW Baird

Baird believes weakness in Apple is a buying opportunity as most demand factors remain favorable. The firm is raising their Q4 iPhone forecast slightly and believes gross margins will benefit from sales of both the iPhone 4 and IPhone 4S. Shares remain Outperform rated with a $750 price target

 

Apple PT Lowered from $660 to $530 at Nomura, Neutral rated

 

 

(MLNX)

Mellanox upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS

UBS upgraded Mellanox (MLNX) and raised estimates above the Street due to increased conviction in InfiniBand adoption and discounted Intel (INTC) risks. Price target raised to $65 from $56.

 

 

I posted my SHLD calls in chat but was out so was unable to post via twitter or text, SHLD was one of those plays that you see going and just trust the gut. I still think she goes over $50 sometime soon as all the ANALysts talk about retail numbers when its not about that, its an asset play.

 

I really like ISRG to keep going, the chart shows plenty of room to $530 or so and I think  it will happen in short order. Will look to grab more calls this morning. I still have SODA calls and think she breaks $50 today finally. Will look to add more calls there as well.

 

Strikes I am watching:

 

 

Stock TickerCall/PutStrikeExpirationClosing PriceEntry Price
SODACALL$50.00Jan0.650.65
SODACALL$52.50Jan0.200.15
ISRGCALL$540.00JAN (WKLY)0.550.40

 

 

 

I had to take care of something so was traveling yesterday and will not be back home till friday night. Will try my best to be in the chatroom... ect so you should see little or no change from my normal presence.

 

Lets have a great trading day!

 

- jimmybob