Tag Archives: nflx

July 6th watchlist

Days like yesterday can make your week or month as NFLX calls provided some HUGE returns. The market sold off at the open, only to rally mid-day, and fall again end of day. Figured with all the intervention from world banks, we would see a nice ramp up. Time will tell.

 

Todays highly anticipated jobs reports disappointed as folks were expecting 100,000 and we got 80,000. Unemployment rate stayed flat at 8.2% . Again, i think most of this news is somewhat irrelevant as folks will rsay buy equities as bad economic numbers increase the odds of more FED QE.

Today could be a fun day on the weeklies expiring today. Will be looking for some pullback plays:

AAPL – $615 calls for lottos – looked extremely strong past 2 sessions. Will wait for dust to settle at open

SHLD – 62.50 calls paid nice yesterday, will look for another possible position for next week

NFLX – think the hype continues into next week. JULY 110 calls maybe a nice play

GOOG – HATE THIS ONE and said $500, but think folks in the know are bidding her up before earnings. May try some 600 calls today and look for some plays for earnings.

Happy Trading and see you in chat!!

- Jimmybob

NetFlix – Like going to the Buffet with Lobster on the Menu

We have written about NetFlix (NFLX) quite a few times over the past year, and have shared our somewhat bullish outlook. This stock has had an epic fall from grace that all other growth stories will be compared to going forward. The question to ask is if the growth story is over or are we in Chapter 3 of a novel? Time will tell as this NetFlix story is filled with quite the drama and suspense.

On Tuesday CEO Reed Hastings posted this on his facebook page:

A quick boast about record viewing hours. Not really a 'material' event, so dont think there is a need for an 8-k as the genius's over at CNBC think it warrants. But it was enough to re-ignite the fire under a dying stock. The stock ripped $10 to close at $81.72. It was an amazingly strong rally with no substantial pull-back and huge volume. The one that you like to see if your banking on a multi-day run like we are. We thought NetFlix (NFLX) was on the verge of a rally in mid-june, and looks like we are finally getting it. Why?

Well with the huge subscriber base and international growth still on the horizon, we think NetFlix (NFLX) still has huge growth potential.

Lets do some quick math on the 1 billion viewing hours for June. Last reported numbers were for the 3 months ending with December of last year, when there were a total of 2 billion viewing hours. Thats a 33% increase in viewing hours in June from December. So are folks viewing habits changing so much, that they are watching 33% more programming on NetFlix(NFLX)?

So is NetFlix (NFLX) like a buffet and folks are just stuffing their faces with more macaroni and cheese? Thats what this "5 star rated" ANALyst thinks:

Wedbush analyst Michael Patcher said the increase in viewing time might just lead to an increase in content costs for the Los Gatos, California-based company.

"Netflix is an all you can eat buffet, and if the buffet sees its consumption go up by 50 percent and they don't raise price that is not a good thing," Patcher who has an "underperform" rating on the stock, said.

Yeah, this guy has been bearish on NetFlix (NFLX) and Bullish on Coinstar (CSTR) for sometime. A classic heads I win tails you lose scenario. He's all ready to throw a quick analogy to rationalize his gloom and doom prediction on NetFlix (NFLX). Sorry to hear that Michael, but you have it wrong this time just like your $44 price target on FaceBook (FB). Its not about consumption, but the quality of the consumption. You see cheap a cheap product, we see Lobster.

Your telling me subscribers are watching 33% more content then 6 months ago? I am sure there has been an increase in subscribers viewing hours...a result of smart phone and Ipads, but it's not 33%. June was warmer then average... you think folks sat on their ass to watch T.V. shows? Based on the subscriber numbers, each NetFlix (NFLX) streaming customer would need to watch 10 more hours of NetFlix (NFLX) content in June then in December to get the 33% increase needed for the 1 billion viewing hours.

To me it sounds like there were a heck of a lot of people signing up for service. But what do I know, I am not an ANALyst.

By the way, we have the 85, 90 weekly calls as well as the July 24 105 and 110 calls.

Volume tells the story on NetFlix(NFLX) and we think there will be at least 1-2 more green candles on the chart before any pullback, meaning $90+ sometime on or before Monday.

Happy Trading!!!

 

 

July 3rd Watchlist

It is starting to feel like the melt higher is beginning. Some of the growth stocks and sector leaders saw some nice moves on an otherwise flat day, meaning big money is starting to chase the performance that is coming. Could be wrong, but getting ahead of the move may be a nice way to play things.

 

Earnings season starts monday, so maybe a somewhat quiet week. Today we have factory orders at 10am and a market close at 1pm. A possible uneventful day.

Will position myself with some more calls for Thursday Green Gap day. PCLN provided a nice move yesterday, LNKD surged and held its ground, and BWLD was flat.

Will be looking for more positions in those today. I will have a write up on BWLD this week, as I feel this is the next stock to really get some legs. With CMG losing its luster, BWLD should be the one to reap the rewards into earnings late July. $100 calls should be a nice play.

Also watching AAPL for the possible break of $600, where i think $610 would come very quick.

Stocks to watch today:

ISRG PCLN LNKD BWLD SHLD BBY AAPL

I wont be around too much today, so if i dont see you have a great 4th of July(if your from the US)

- Jimmybob

NetFlix (NFLX)

 

We dont like being wrong, but nobody is perfect. What is worse then being wrong once?? Being wrong twice. Any broken clock is right at least 2 times a day, and we pride ourselves on being right at least 50% of the time... Heck, with options you can be right 50% of the time and bank some SERIOUS coin.

We are banking on NetFlix(NFLX) to make the move we thought would happen last week. NetFlix broke higher today along with the overall market. We think NetFlix (NFLX) will see $75+ this week, and posted our sentiment in our chat room when NetFlix (NFLX) was still trading in the $67s. Asking us why we think that way is like asking Coke for their secret formula.

Well actually you can ask us... just make sure it says DIAMOND at the top of your screen. (CHEESY SITE PLUG)

 

 

NetFlix (NFLX) – History Repeats itself?

Who can forget the start of 2012 when Netflix (NFLX) went on a 6 day rampage. It was an option traders wet dream as the stock ran from $69 to $99.65 in 6 trading sessions. The Catalyst? Well thats a mystery. Was it the news that folks watched over 2 billion hours of Netflix videos over a 3 month span in the fourth quarter of 2011? Or maybe it was the rumor of a buy out from Yahoo? Either way, the stock exploded and call buyers were rewarded with 1000%+ returns on their positions.

Here it is nearly 6 months later, and we find Netflix (NFLX) in an eerily similar scenario. The stock has been trending down for a few weeks after earnings. Folks are starting to bet on a serious breakdown from support levels as Netflix (NFLX) is losing it's luster. You can see the vultures circling around waiting for an imminent death.

This is the exact scenario we like to buy calls in. Rumors circulated on friday on some type of offer from Verizon (VZ) , which makes no sense, but does bring attention to the stock. We also had a nice insider buy reported after hours.  Not saying these are the ingredients for a massive rally, but they may provide some fuel.

Folks forget that Netflix (NFLX) has over 23 million streaming subscribers, and looking to add over 7 million more in 2012. We will have more on NetFlix (NFLX)monday. For now, check out the chart. If history does repeat itself, we maybe in for a nice return on some calls.