Tag Archives: isrg

1-15-2013 Watchlist

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Earnings seasons is starting to kick it up a notch with GS and JPM reporting this morning, and EBAY reporting after the bell.  GS smashed estimates and is up nearly 4% PM. JPM beat as well but is down modestly as I write this. Tomorrrow we have C, BAC, BLK, and INTC so those could either provide a boost to the market, or give the market a reason to fade.

 

Only one I will be trying to play is BLK for tomorrow but then will look to play some of the high beta names next week, which we will cover in the week ahead on Sunday Jan 20th.

 

CMG came out with preliminary earnings for Q4 well below estimates on food cost issues. The stock fell 10% and is bouncing a little. Not sure I will be playin CMG on the long side for a bit as it looks like the growth story continues to be on hold.

 

AAPL broke solidly under $500 and it seems to have had a smaller impact on the market then i would have expected.

 

SODA and SHLD broke higher yesterday, only to fade EOD. I still like both here and added 52.50 SODA calls and some SHLD 49 and 50.42 calls.

 

Here are some of the analyst changes this morning:

 

Chipotle reports Q4 preliminary EPS $1.92-$1.97, consensus $2.09

Reports Q4 preliminary revenue $699.2M, consensus $690.86M.

 

(CMG)

Chipotle shares likely to be down meaningfully, says Jefferies

Jefferies expects shares of Chipotle to be down meaningfully after the company preannounced weaker than expected Q4 earnings. The firm says it's becoming increasingly clear that Chipotle's same-store-sales and modest pricing will not maintain margins and could yield 2013 earnings significantly below consensus. Jefferies keeps an Underperform rating on the stock with a $215 price target.

 

(DNKN)

Dunkin' Brands announces plans to enter Southern California

Dunkin' Donuts announced that it is expanding to Southern California. Specifically, the company is recruiting multi-unit franchisees for Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, San Bernardino, Ventura and Orange counties and expects restaurants in these markets will begin to open in 2015. The company is also interested in identifying qualified food service operators for a wide range of non-traditional venues including colleges and universities, casinos, military bases, supermarkets, airports and travel centers. In 2013, the company plans to open 330-360 net new restaurants in the United States with grow

 

CMG)

Chipotle comps likely to bottom at 1% in Q1, says William Blair

William Blair says food inflation pressured Chipotle's Q4 after the company preannounced weaker than expected earnings for the quarter. The firm expects Chipotle's comps to bottom at roughly 1% in Q1 before moving higher on a likely price increase. William Blair views Chipotle's business as very healthy and said it would be opportunistic buyers on share weakness. The firm keeps an Outperform rating on the stock.

 

(WYNN)

Wynn Resorts downgraded to Neutral from Buy at ISI Group

ISI Group downgraded Wynn Resorts due to valuation.

 

 

Here are some of the strikes i am looking at today:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
NFLX CALL $110.00 weekly 0.21 0.18
BLK CALL $230.00 weekly 0.60 0.50
LNKD CALL $120.00 weekly 0.64 0.60

 

 

I like BLK to continue the uptrend and break above $230 for earnings tomorrow. Heck, stock is correcting itself from a YEAR of underperforming the market for the wrong reasons. I think NFLX will get legs today or tomorrow after yesterdays fade and will play $110 calls for a flip. Also think LNKD will get some footing if FB stays green today.

 

That is all for now.. Lets have a great trading day!

- Jimmybob

1-15-2013 Watchlist

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Futures are red but feels somewhat flat this morning with retail numbers due out this morning. Bernacke did not spill any beans or make any market moving remarks yesterday besides making it sound like QE infinity will not end in 2013. The market has closed somewhat flat the last two trading sessions, which is somewhat welcome as consolidation is needed again before we break to $150 on the SPY.

 

Tomorrow kicks off some more serious earnings with JPM before the bell and EBAY after the bell. Not playing those but both could swing the market a bit.

 

All the good news we have seen toward the end of the year on Solar has now turned sour. Another article out today on the oversupply of Solar modules in 2013: http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20130114PD203.html

 

Obviously puts on FSLR would be the play with the $30 probably the best bet. On watch for now but wont play today unless i see some serious volume to the downside.

 

 

Remember that Facebook has an event at 1pm  today so something to keep an eye on. Also, an article in the times today about FB taking over GOOG as top search engine if they added search..  http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/15/technology/fortunes-of-facebook-may-hinge-on-searches.html?ref=business&_r=0

 

DELL had a boatload of upgrades today on the B/O rumors so be a bit wary there trying to play that for now. Here are some the of the analyst changes this morning:

 

(AAPL)

Apple shares likely to rise on strong Q4 results, says Jefferies

Jefferies expects Apple to report strong Q4 results and issue guidance for Q1 slightly above consensus. The firm thinks the stock will rise on the results and reiterates a Buy rating on Apple with an $800 price target.

 

(AAPL)

Apple weakness a buying opportunity, says RW Baird

Baird believes weakness in Apple is a buying opportunity as most demand factors remain favorable. The firm is raising their Q4 iPhone forecast slightly and believes gross margins will benefit from sales of both the iPhone 4 and IPhone 4S. Shares remain Outperform rated with a $750 price target

 

Apple PT Lowered from $660 to $530 at Nomura, Neutral rated

 

 

(MLNX)

Mellanox upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS

UBS upgraded Mellanox (MLNX) and raised estimates above the Street due to increased conviction in InfiniBand adoption and discounted Intel (INTC) risks. Price target raised to $65 from $56.

 

 

I posted my SHLD calls in chat but was out so was unable to post via twitter or text, SHLD was one of those plays that you see going and just trust the gut. I still think she goes over $50 sometime soon as all the ANALysts talk about retail numbers when its not about that, its an asset play.

 

I really like ISRG to keep going, the chart shows plenty of room to $530 or so and I think  it will happen in short order. Will look to grab more calls this morning. I still have SODA calls and think she breaks $50 today finally. Will look to add more calls there as well.

 

Strikes I am watching:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
SODA CALL $50.00 Jan 0.65 0.65
SODA CALL $52.50 Jan 0.20 0.15
ISRG CALL $540.00 JAN (WKLY) 0.55 0.40

 

 

 

I had to take care of something so was traveling yesterday and will not be back home till friday night. Will try my best to be in the chatroom... ect so you should see little or no change from my normal presence.

 

Lets have a great trading day!

 

- jimmybob

12-21 Watchlist

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Well Boehner and the rest of the elected politicians did it again, causing a flash crashof sorts in the futures market after they pulled the vote on the Plan B: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-20/futures-flash-crash-es-plummets-limit-down . It’s almost like DeJaVu with the debt ceiling fiasco last summer. The impasse then caused a 4%+ sell off in one day, followed by a nearly 15% drop in a matter of days. Hard to say what happens now, but I am mildly optimistic things wont get as bad this time and we bounce into the weekend. Also remember today is quadruple witching meaning all the option contracts expire today... usually a day with higher volatility.

 

Here are some of the Analyst upgrades/downgrades today:

 

(AAPL)

Apple customer service undervalued, says Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo believes that investors are underappreciating the value of Apple's customer service advantage compared with its competitors. The firm think that the recent sell-off in Apple's stock is overdone, and it maintains an Outperform rating on the shares.

 

(FFIV)

F5 Networks initiated with an Outperform at FBR Capital

Target $120.

 

Nike downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney Capital

Janney downgraded Nike citing valuation. Price target is $110.

 

(NKE)

Nike price target raised to $115 from $106 at UBS

UBS believes Nike's better than expected Q2 report sets the stage for accelerating EPS growth. The firm said North American futures accelerated and China futures indicate the worst has past. Nike is the firm's top apparel/footwear pick. Shares are Buy rated with a $115 price target, raised from $106.

 

(RIMM)

Research in Motion stock drops on conference call comments, says Citigroup

Citigroup notes Research in Motion shares sold off last night after it became clear on the earnings conference call that RIM will receive much lower rates on its highly profitable services. Citi says Research in Motion's services will materially and structurally shift lower with the new BB10 products. The firm recommends not chasing the stock and keeps a Sell rating on the name, despite raising its price target to $6 from $5

 

 

I plan on waiting a few minutes after the open before pulling the trigger on any bounce plays:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration
ISRG CALL $495.00 weekly
AAPL CALL $515.00 weekly
NFLX CALL $92.50 weekly
NKE CALL $105.00 weekly
FFIV CALL $97.50 weekly

 

 

 

Today is VERY risky so please trade carefully. It is quite possible I may call it a day early today.

 

Lets have a great trading day!

 

- Jimmybob

10-19 Watchlist

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What an exciting day for once yesterday, as we had some nice intra-day moves on stocks like $GOOG, $PCLN, and $LNKD.  Being in ahead of moves like we had on GOOG during the market hours can equal huge returns. There were some folks in the $700 puts that went from $3 to $30 in 4 minutes. Why we trade options! GOOGs early earnings report caused a sell-off in other tech names like PCLN and LNKD. I think those will be nice movers next week, so definitely need to keep an eye on those. WYNN started its move to $120, the faded with the rest of the market, i still have hope on the $120C. SODA had some expansion news that sent the stock up to 40.60, but then that faded under $39. CAT has made a killer move this week from the lows, and UPB has been all over it (http://stocktwits.com/message/9997640) . HRS is another stock brought to us by BullBear based on this news :  (HRS)Harris awarded Department of Navy contract worth up to $397M And if anyone can confirm this as a new release https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=c4840567ca9fadfea10615b6e4455032&tab=core&_cview=1 . The NOV 50 Calls were the play at .45/.50/.55 .

Today brings option expiration for OCT calls, so should be a fun day. Typically today is one of the most Manipulated days of the year as GOOG tends to PIN exactly to a price every friday after earnings, which is always at an even number like 690 or 700. What I am watching or playing today:

 

Stock Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
ISRG Call $550 Oct 0.30 0.30
ISRG Call $555 Oct 0.15 0.15
CALL Call 22.50 Oct 0.30 0.30
CALL Call $25 Oct 0.10 0.10
NFLX Call $70 Oct 0.14 0.10

 

CALL reported nice earnings so looking for a squeeze. ISRG upgraded by BAC to $620 so expect another 3-5% move today. $NFLX chart looks ready to break $70 again.

Will have more in chat and via twitter. Lets have a great day! I will not be in chat until about 10am this morning.

- JImmybob

10-16 Watchlist

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So far so good to start this week as the futures are solid green once again. Earnings season is starting to heat up as Goldman Sacks, Coca-Cola, and quite a few other stocks reported earnings this morning, with much more after the bell. Looks like Spain is going to work out a bailout finally. which bodes well for a risk-on environment, at least for the short term. Remember, I am playing for $SPY 150 in the short term, and use these dips to find beaten down stocks.

Going forward will post my possible entries below and then explain afterwards. Let me know if you like this better:

 

Stock Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
WYNN Call $125 Oct 0.15 0.15
FOSL Call $90 Oct 0.25 0.35
SODA Call $40 Oct 0.20 0.20
LNKD Call $120 Oct 0.10 0.10

 

I continue to like WYNN for a breakout, especially if we are over $116.88. We will not need earnings to go over $120. Grabbed the 120s @ .39/.51 yesterday and sent text alert on it. We should all bank some nice coin. I like LNKD for a bounce off it's recent sell-off. Key is it sold off for no reason which leads me to believe someone was unwinding some positions. I still love SODA here after the nice move yesterday, and I love FOSL after CITI upgrade this morning.

DPZ is another to watch today but may be hard to get any cheap calls, and upside over 40 maybe somewhat limited, but could see $41-43.

Stay tuned to chat for more trading ideas and lets have a great week!!

- Jimmybob