Tag Archives: goog

Charts Striking Points of Resistance/Support $GOOG $FOSL $NFLX

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Stocks are generally higher to start the day, but will that last?

All of these stocks are at important points from a chart perspective. I think each of these stocks will post a big move after hitting these points that I have highlighted below.

I am gearing up to take a position in $NFLX and currently waiting to get filled. So far no luck. What do I see?

For $GOOG $FOSL $NFLX I see major resistance which points to at least a short term pull back.

I think each offers a great risk reward for weekly puts.

$GOOG $885 at $1.20
$NFLX $215 at $.68
$FOSL $100 at $.40

goog

foslnflx

Where are We Headed? – Chart Updates – $GOOG $AAPL $SPY

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Equity markets around the globe sold off today after the Yen strengthened sending the Nikkei down dramatically after comments from Japanese officials scared investors.  We witnessed the same thing last week only to endure a remarkable recovery into the end of the week.  Was the recovery nothing but a sell-able bounce?  Are stocks poised for a big decline heading into the summer?

Two Fridays ago a late day swoon brought the bears out of hibernation.  The Hindenburg Omen!  Dirigible debris filled the sky.  The end was near, sell everything and head for the hills!  The bull market is over..... yet stocks closed the week higher.  Go figure.

We find ourselves this week in a similar position.  The bears are out of their caves, the fear is palpable, stocks are vulnerable, yet I think we have a good chance to close the week higher than we started.  I'm not sure there are many people saying the same thing.

Below are a few charts for $AAPL, $GOOG, and $SPY.  These chart are my opinion only as are where I think the market and these stocks are headed.

goog611

 

Based upon the last 9 months of trade for $GOOG I think 3 scenarios are possible but feel the most likely scenario is a move over $900.  Late last week I told the chat room that I thought $GOOG was starting to curl after a long consolidation.  That curl upward should lead to new all time highs.  I don't think it happens this week but it will happen within the next few.

aapl611

 

$AAPL remains well positioned for a move to $500, its just a matter of when.  A few months ago I said the same thing about $BIDU with the stock at $84 a share, saying $100+ was coming.  It took a little longer than I thought it would, but it came just the same.  $AAPL the only question, in my mind, is when this move will occur.  The bottom for the year was hit in April.  I think this will hold.  Right now we are looking at a very nice inverted head and shoulders and this will resolve 20% to the upside.

spy6111spy611

 

$SPY in my view has also bottomed for the time being.  We are looking at a possible inverted head and shoulders.  This should resolve with higher prices.  I think $166+ on the $SPY could be hit this week going exactly against what everyone else thinks will happen and putting the few remaining bears out  to bed again.  Good night.

Finally, if someone put a gun to my head and asked where these stocks will close the week, I would calmly answer:   $SPY $165.20, $GOOG 905, and $AAPL $450.

June 4, 2013 Watch List

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After a rocky morning, the market found its footing and closed solidly in the green. There were moments in the morning where it sure looked like the market was going to sell-off in rapid fashion, but $163 seemed to hold well, and the specter of another green tuesday gave stocks support.

Folks are finally figuring out the heads bulls win, tails bears lose environment we have been in for the past 2 years. Yet now they think good news will cause a sell-off, which maybe possible with Fridays Jobs numbers due out for May. It was April’s job numbers that sparked the next leg in the 2013 rally, let’s hope May numbers do not derail it.

 

Today we go for #21. A streak that will probably never be beaten. Here is a great analysis by UPB: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/twenty-one/

 

Futures are slightly green this morning and sure feels like the bulls are going to make it happen today.

 

Gold and Silver are giving back all the gains from yesterday. I spoke about the ISM number yesterday giving more hints of deflation which should spark more selling in commods. The index dropped to 49, the lowest since June of 2009 and shows contraction. I think this is more a function of folks waiting for lower prices, then an actual demand issue. The Fed can drop freshly printed hundreds from 747s all over the US, but if folks put the money under their pillow, inflation will not happen. Same goes with those banks that are not giving out loans...ect.

 

Had Visa(V) on the watchlist this morning on a GS price target raise, and the investor conference on Thursday. Chart looked very nice and figured she would bounce back into the 180s, which she did. Still think she has some legs this week and could break into all-time highs into Thursday. Here is the trade idea sent via text: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/text-trade-idea-from-this-morning-update/ I will not be sending out a text when i close the trade, but they are already a double so would make sense for most to at least lock half in and ride freebies.(Not my cup of tea).

Also, here is UPB’s thouhts on AAPL this week: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/aapl-offering-a-great-trade-set-up-for-june-chart/

 

Hopefully we get a nice steady ramp today on the SPY into the $165-166 range.

 

Here are the analyst changes for today:

 

 

 

Ulta Salon downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman
Goldman downgraded Ulta Salon ahead of expected 2014 investment to strengthen its e-commerce offering. Price target raised to $98 from $93

 

Buffalo Wild Wings removed from Focus Idea List at RW Baird
Baird removed Buffalo Wild Wings from the Focus Idea List due to outperformance. The firm maintains its Outperform rating and would be aggressive buyers in the low $90s. Price target remains $95

 

Cerner coverage resumed with a Buy at Goldman
Target $115

 

Monster Beverage sales accelerate in May, says Goldman
Monster disclosed at its shareholder meeting yesterday that April/May combined gross sales were +9.4%, implying May gross sales growth of 13%, according to Goldman. In addition, U.S. Nielsen c-store data accelerated to +9.7% for the 4 weeks ended May 25 vs. +5.1% for the four weeks ending May 11. The firm expects shares to be up on encouraging May trends and believes 2H 2013 looks attractive for the company given improving international margins and easier comps. Shares are Buy rated

 

TripAdvisor price target raised to $70 from $60 at Macquarie
Macquarie believes TripAdvisor's will benefit from increased OTA competition and that its ongoing roll-out if its user-friendly UI will drive increased traffic on its site. Shares are Outperform rated

 

priceline.com price target raised to $915 from $845 at Macquarie
Macquarie raised priceline.com estimates due to increased confidence in Bookings.com U.S. market share gains. Shares are Outperform rated with a $915 price target, raised from $845

 

CME Group upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo upgraded CME Group on expectations interest rates and equities will add to the company's to growth. The firm raised its price target range for shares to $80-$90 from $55-$65

 

LULU Lululemon to meet or beat high end of guidance, says William Blair
William Blair expects lululemon to meet or beat its Q1 earnings estimate of 30c, which is at the high end of the company's 28c-30c guidance. The firm said its channel checks indicate lululemon's traffic trends were healthy in Q1 despite the shortage of black luon. William Blair continues to like shares of lululemon with an Outperform rating

 

BofA/Merrill expects Under Armour to provide a strong revenue outlook
BofA/Merrill said expectations are high heading into Under Armour's analyst day tomorrow but the company should provide strong revenue outlook of 20-25% for the next three years. Shares are Buy rated with a $68 price target

 

Six Flags price target raised to $80-$83 from $71-$74 at Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo increased its target on Six Flags as the firm believes that the company will benefit from strong initial 2013 season pass sales and higher ticket prices. The firm notes that the stock has a high dividend yield and it keeps an Outperform rating on the shares

 

 

Will be keeping it small today, like i have been for the past few weeks. Only position added yesterday were the V calls. Will look to trade CME calls for the first time in over a year, as well as trying to get into VRA before earnings.

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
VRA CALL $30.00 AUGUST 0..35 0.30
VRA CALL $30.00 JULY 0.20 0.15
CME CALL $72.50 June 0.32 0.35

 

 

 

Lets have a great day!

 

- JB

5-14-2013 Watch List

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Yesterday was a slightly mixed trading session as the market pulled mostly into the green. We had retail sales numbers yesterday, and import numbers today. Nothing that should move the market much. The number I am looking forward to is the CPI number released thursday at 8:30am. I am still a bear on Silver and Gold, and still hold my 22.50 puts that expire this week. Why am I holding them even when i could have locked them in for 50%+ profit 2 times over the past week? I think Silver and Gold will have another ‘down the rabbit hole’moment, where we see a serious 5-10% decline over  24-48 hours. That is what I am holding for.

The WSJ had two articles about possible inflation worries... well actually the lack thereof. Where worldwide inflation levels have dropped the most in many years. Here are the articles although you probably need a WSJ subscription:

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324031404578481263524848442.html

 

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/05/13/retail-data-highlight-fed-inflation-dilemma/

 

There has been many rumbling over the past week on the Feds plan to scale back QE. I think thats more of a need for news outlets to lure readers in. We shall see. Possible deflation can be devastating to the recovery and the CPI number on thursday will be a great indicator on what more measures the Fed may need to take to get things back on track.

 

There have been some monster moves in some individual equities over the years, but this move in TSLA has to take one of the top spots. The stock move up another double digits yesterday, and is up again pre-market. Believing the unthinkable on a momentum play like this can yield gigantic returns on options, so congrats to anyone who bought early and is still holding!

 

I like quite a few stocks this week, but like WYNN and NFLX to really breakout. Here is my write-up from last night(gold and above) : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/two-stocks-on-the-move/

 

Here are some of the analyst changes of note today:

 

 

YHOO Yahoo price target raised to $30 from $27 at Goldman
Goldman raised Yahoo estimates to account for Alibaba, continued growth acceleration, and appreciation in Yahoo! Japan shares. The firm rates Yahoo1 Conviction Buy.

 

SODA SodaStream price target raised to $68 from $60 at Oppenheimer
After SodaStream introduced a target of $1B in sales by 2016 at its Analyst Day, Oppenheimer thinks that the company's growth strategy is just getting started, and should lead to continued meaningful improvement in financial results for the foreseeable future. The firm keeps an Outperform rating on the stock.

 

FOSL Fossil initiated with an Equal Weight at Stephens
Target $115.

 

TSLA Tesla price target raised to $103 from $47 at Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley believes the market is starting to realize Tesla's competency in technology, engineering, marketing, and manufacturing. The firm expects shares to continue to move higher driven by funding through regulatory credits, leasing program affordability, opportunistic capital raises given high share price, and model introductions, among other reasons. Shares are Overweight rated.

 

SSYS Stratasys price target raised to $94 from $80 at Needham
Needham raised its price target for Stratasys citing the company's solid Q1 results and reiterates a Buy rating on the stock.

 

YHOO Yahoo price target raised to $30 from $26 at Cantor
Cantor increased its price target on Yahoo, citing Alibaba's revenue growth acceleration in Q4 and improvements in Yahoo's unique visitor levels since Marissa Mayer became its CEO. The firm keeps a Buy rating on Yahoo.

 

SCTY SolarCity downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Roth Capital
Roth Capital downgraded SolarCity citing valuation. Price target raised to $30 from $20

 

V Visa price target raised to $196 from $177 at Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank raised its price target for Visa after meeting with the company's CEO Charlie Scharf and keeps a Buy rating on the stock

 

 

 

Here are the strikes I am looking at this morning:

 

 

Stock Ticker Call/Put Strike Expiration Closing Price Entry Price
WYNN CALL $145.00 Weekly 0.26 0.20
NFLX CALL $260.00 Weekly 0.30 0.26
DE CALL $97.50 Weekly 0.32 0.30

 

 

 

Will look to possibly add to my WYNN and NFLX position, while also adding some DE calls for earnings tomorrow AM.

 

Lets have a great day folks!

 

- JB

Two Stocks On the Move

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After doing my normal research over the weekend, and preparing for the Week Ahead Webinar, I came up with my normal "Stocks I Really Like" list. This list changes week to week, but does have some of the usual  suspects.

I already held a position in all four of the stocks, but was looking to possibly add to my position at the open. Only 1 of the four performed well today, and that was mainly due to a positive write-up in Barron's over the weekend.

For those that do not know, those four stocks were; Western Union (WU), Baidu (BIDU), OpenTable (OPEN), and Sears Holdings (SHLD). I did add to my position in Baidu(BIDU) with some more $100 weekly calls @ .16. So why you ask, is the title of this post "Two Stocks on the Move" when I am discussing ones that did not? Well that is because this market can give you opportunities at anytime, and I had to adjust my strategy for the day.

One of the stocks that moved out of the gate this morning was Netflix(NFLX). I spoke a few times over the past week about the channel i was watching from 209-224. Netflix(NFLX) broke under the $209 channel last week, and figured we would not see the stock above $210 for sometime. But news about more Disney content coming to Netflix(NFLX) helped spark shares higher, as well as Ichan saying he has not sold a share. Today's action was very telling, and once it broke $224 I started looking for a position in the calls thinking today is the start of a new uptrend. I did get some of the $255 calls @ .36, and think the stock heads over $240 sometime this week. Below is the chart I made for the Week Ahead Webinar the Sunday before Netflix(NFLX) earnings, when the stock was under $170. The chart shows there is plenty of room to the upside, even with the recent move.

NFLX 5-13 - small

 

The next stock is another favorite we have played before... Wynn Resorts (WYNN). The stock closed today at multi-year highs, and looks like its ready to breakout in a major way. We grabbed the $145 weekly calls @ .19 and may look to get some more positions this week. The chart below shows the channel and the breakout that could happen.

WYNN 5-13 - small

 

We will update on the watchlist this morning on these trades, as well as some others.

Happy Trading!

- JB