General Options Blog

November 16th, 2017 Watch List

Markets closed in the red on Wednesday, with the S&P finishing down .55%. Of course folks will try to rationalize the move and many are citing the possible concerns with Tax Reform but at the end of the day it seems to be some profit taking and a bit of a sympathy move from Global markets, with Europe equities falling for 7 straight sessions. Asia markets closed mostly higher overnight while Europe markets are in rally mode this morning. U.S. futures are following suit, with the S&P looking to open .33% higher. The Dollar, Gold, Oil, and Treasuries are all pointing slightly lower.

ROKU opened lower yesterday but fought its way back in the morning and traded in the green for the rest of the session, closing at highs. It is gapping this morning. If it holds $40 I will finally look to add to my Jan $35 position with some higher strikes.

It is the big day - or big late evening for folks on the east coast - for TSLA. The Semi-reveal will be live streamed. Not sure where the link is yet but will update on twitter and in the chatroom when I see it. TSLA has the page ready : https://www.tesla.com/semi . Will likely just hold my Dec calls into the event, though could certainly see a nice pop once it clears the 200dma at $321.34. Here is a nice read on Musk, who gets plenty of criticism. I guess folks forget he is human : http://www.rollingstone.com/culture/features/elon-musk-inventors-plans-for-outer-space-cars-finding-love-w511747- thank you Alfalfa for the share in the chatroom.

YY exploded yesterday on earnings, adding nearly 25%. Not one to normally chase a move like this but think there could be some overshoot based on yesterdays action and an upgrade this morning by JPM. May try for some lotto calls under $120 and look for some strikes into next week.

NTES reported earnings yesterday after the close that beat estimates but showed a slowdown in some of their core platforms. It is a mixed bag so far with analysts, with two analysts upgrading their price targets while another downgraded the stock. NTES has provided some great trading opportunities post earnings. I may look for some inexpensive lotto puts to play for a move to $275.

The SPY broke solidly under the $256.30 area yesterday, and I added some QQQ puts as a hedge once it did which I had planned to do on the watchlist the last few days. I certainly do not have my bear suit on, but I will not be caught with my pants down when we do have a 5-10% sell-off. With the S&P red 4 out of the past 5 sessions, would be nice to see a decent rally today and a solid close tomorrow going into next weeks holiday shortened schedule. $254.50 is the next area of supposed with the 50dma looming at $253.74:

And here are the analyst changes of note for today:

NetEase price target raised to $334 from $325 at Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank analyst Han Joon Kim says hope of an improving outlook outweighs NetEase's earnings miss in Q3. The analyst expects the stock narrative to shift towards whether the quarter marks a trough in sequential momentum or not. Kim assumes a "gradual U-shaped recovery" through 2018 and keeps a Buy rating on NetEase
Intuit price target raised to $160 from $141 at RBC Capital
RBC Capital analyst Ross MacMillan raised his price target on Intuit to $160, citing his positive bias for potential of a positive surprise on subscriber additions heading into Q1. The analyst also notes the increased pace of innovation at the company since the analyst day, with product announcements including Turbo and Quickbooks Capital. MacMillan keeps his Sector Perform rating on Intuit, saying the valuation multiple of his price target is in line with the five-year historical average premium of the stock relative to the S&P500
McDonald's is sustaining its momentum, says RBC Capital
RBC Capital analyst David Palmer is positive on McDonald's with an Outperform rating and a $180 price target, saying the stock is a "core holding for large cap consumer investors heading into 2018". Palmer cites the company expectations of above-consensus 2018 SSS growth, driven by the past momentum initiatives such as $1 soft drinks and All Day Breakfast as well as the 2018 components of the turnaround plan that includes restaurant reimaging, technology investments, and delivery rollout
Daqo New Energy price target raised to $50 from $45 at Roth Capital
Roth Capital analyst Philip Shen raised his price target for Daqo New Energy to $50 from $45 after the company delivered a Q3 beat/strong Q4 guide driven by ASP strength and management's debottlenecking efforts, which have resulted in higher than expected effective capacity versus nameplate. The analyst reiterates a Buy rating on the shares
Cisco price target raised to $40 from $36 at RBC Capital
RBC Capital analyst Mitch Steves raised his price target on Cisco to $40 after Q1 results, noting continued increase in the company's recurring revenue. Steves also cited the quarter showing double-digit gains in Advanced threat and Web Security businesses as well as gross margins remaining at nearly 64% in spite of memory pricing pressures. The analyst keeps his Outperform rating on Cisco, saying the company continues to work in the right direction
Morgan Stanley says NetApp to out-execute in near-term, still cautious long-term
Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty said distraction at competitors EMC (EMC) and HP Enterprise (HPE) has helped NetApp (NTAP) drive strong results and she sees the company being able to continue to out-execute competitors in the next quarter or two. She raised her FY18 revenue growth view for NetApp to 6% from 3%, in-line with management's increased guidance, and raised her price target on the stock to $41 from $38. However, she remains cautious long-term as storage continues to migrate to the cloud and she expects competitors to regain their footing, leading Huberty to keep an Underweight rating on NetApp shares
Cisco price target raised to $38 from $34 at MKM Partners
MKM Partners analyst Michael Genovese raised his price target on Cisco (CSCO) to $38 following Q1 results, noting 1% order growth in total products amid a better order intake in the Americas and in the Commercial verticals. While infrastructure sales declined 4%, the analyst writes in his research note, this is the "same old story" for routers due to added competitive pressure from Arista (ANET). Genovese keeps his Neutral rating on Cisco, saying he does not anticipate a lot more multiple expansion beyond 15-times forward EPS
Progressive price target raised to $60 from $55 at MKM Partners
MKM Partners analyst Harry Fong raised his price target on Progressive to $60 and kept his Buy rating following October earnings. Fong says the company continues to gain momentum as total personal auto policies-in-force - PIF - growth increased 11.5% this month over the prior year month. The analyst adds that the growth in PIF count has been steadily increasing all year as Progressive grows its homeowners line including the bundled auto/homeowners' insurance product
CFPB change could be positive for TSYS, says Morgan Stanley
Noting that planned Consumer Finance Protection Bureau prepaid card rules would impair TSYS's ability to charge overdraft fees on Netspend prepaid cards, Morgan Stanley analyst Vasundhara Govil said that the resignation of CFPB Director Richard Cordray could be a positive as a new Director may propose changes or try to block implementation of the rules. However, his checks suggest the likelihood of this happening is low, as not many companies besides TSYS are very motivated to lobby for a change. Govil maintains an Equal Weight rating on TSYS shares
Pop-ups portend stronger Amazon presence within Whole Foods, says KeyBanc
KeyBanc analyst Edward Yruma notes that his recent visit to an Amazon pop-up within Whole Foods points to the rapid speed of integration. They are staffed by Amazon employees and are focused on helping consumers understand and purchase Amazon devices, he explains, adding that this comes on the heels of the third wave of Amazon/Whole Foods price investments and underscores Amazon's commitment to physical retail. Yruma reiterates a Sector Weight rating on the shares
Cisco price target raised to $39 from $33 at KeyBanc
KeyBanc analyst Alex Kurtz raised his price target for Cisco to $39 from $33 given positive signs behind the Cat 9K refresh in Q1 of 2018 coupled with stable macro conditions ex-service provider and a positive bookto-bill. The analyst adds that given the potential for a turn in the switching portfolio outlook with the first major campus platform upgrade in five years, the stock deserves an elevated out-year multiple. He reiterates an Overweight rating on the shares

And here is what I am watching today:

Stock Ticker

Call/Put

Strike

Expiration

Closing Price

Possible Entry Price

ROKU

Call

$70.00

Jan 19th

.40 x .70

0.55

SODA

Call

$80.00

Jan 19th

.40 x .60

0.50

YY

Call

$120.00

Nov 24th

.50 x 1

0.75

YY

Call

$125.00

Nov 24th

0 x .75

0.25

NTES

Put

$290.00

weekly

4 x 5

0.25

NTES

Put

$275.00

Nov 24th

.10 x 2.20

0.25

Let's have a GREAT DAY!

-JB