Autodesk Inc (ADSK) Option Trade For Earnings

autodesk

 

Autodesk (ADSK) reports earnings after the bell on Thursday.   Before I get into what I think is going to happen to ADSK common stock after the company reports earnings, lets see exactly what Autodesk does:

Autodesk, Inc., is a leader in 3D design, engineering and entertainment software. Customers across the manufacturing, architecture, building, construction, and media and entertainment industries—including the last 16 Academy Award winners for Best Visual Effects—use Autodesk software to design, visualize, and simulate their ideas before they're ever built or created. From blockbuster visual effects and buildings that create their own energy to electric cars and the batteries that power them, the work of our 3D software customers is everywhere you look.

Through our apps for iPhone, iPad, iPod, and Android, we're also making design technology accessible to professional designers as well as amateur designers, homeowners, students, and casual creators. Whether it's a kid looking to build a new contraption, a seasoned pro sketching out a great new idea, or someone who just wants to amp up their creative output, we're taking technology originally built for movie studios, automakers, and architectural firms, and making it available to anyone who wants to create and share their ideas with the world.  - source:  http://usa.autodesk.com/company/

Now that we have that out of the way let me tell you that I really don't care what ADSK does or how big of a raise the executives gave themselves this year.  What brought me to this potential option trade is the chart.  I think post earnings ADSK is going to drop and I will position myself with the $33 puts that are currently at $1.08.  I would like to see the stock post another strong day tomorrow so I can get in cheaper.

What do I see on the chart?  ADSK is putting in a nice head and shoulders pattern which points to a move back below $30 a share.

 

 

Here is the option chain after the close today.  Again I would like to see a flat or modestly higher day for the stock tomorrow to reduce the cost of my entry into those $33 puts.  It was last Thursday that I let a chart do the talking and the stock was MRVL.  It dropped like a stone post earnings, as I thought it would, and I think we see a similar move for ADSK.

 

 

 

 

Autodesk Inc . ( ADSK ) is scheduled to release its fiscal second quarter 2013 results after the market closes on August 23, 2012.  In the run up to the earnings release we do not notice any movement in the analysts' estimates. However, Autodesk has a negative average earnings surprise of 0.4% over the trailing four quarters.

Previous Quarter Highlights

Autodesk reported mixed first quarter results. The bottom line of 36 cents (including stock based compensation) missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3 cents. However, the reported earnings increased 12.5% from the previous-year quarter on the back of revenue growth across all geographies and business segments.

The top line increased 11.4% year over year to $588.6 million in the reported quarter and was slightly ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $587.0 million. The year-over-year growth was driven by improved performances from Manufacturing, and Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) business segments and strong revenue from Suites.

For second quarter 2013, Autodesk expects revenues in the range of $580.0 million to $600.0 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $592.0 million. Management expects non-GAAP EPS in the range of 46 cents to 51 cents.

For further details please read: Autodesk Reports Mixed 1Q

Earnings Estimates Trend

Over the past 30 days, none of the five analysts covering the stock revised their estimates in either direction. Thus, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the second quarter remained at 40 cents.

Analysts covering the stock expect revenue to be positively impacted by the price rise and increasing mix of recurring subscription revenue. The migration of AutoCAD customers from 2D to 3D will be incrementally beneficial for the company to drive revenues. Moreover, the company's foray into the emerging economies is expected to be the positive catalyst for Autodesk. However, the sluggish macroeconomic environment remains the primary headwind for the company in the near-term.

Recommendation

In our view, the company's innovations in 3D design technology provide a competitive edge. Moreover, Autodesk's expanding product portfolio and broadening industry and geographic reach will help it sustain its longer-term growth strategy of providing high-volume, lower-cost CAD software. We believe that this will likely drive earnings going forward.

Moreover, the company's expanding cloud computing services portfolio will expand its customer base going forward. The company is also increasing its penetration in the mobile market by developing software for smartphones and Apple Inc. 's ( AAPL ) iPad. We believe that these initiatives will boost Autodesk's top-line growth going forward.

However, Autodesk's high exposure to Europe (approximately 40% of revenues) amidst the lingering financial turmoil in the region keeps us cautious on the stock. Moreover, customer concentration and increasing competition are the other headwinds.

We have a Neutral recommendation on Autodesk's shares in the long term. Currently, Autodesk has a Zacks #3 Rank, which translates into a short-term 'Hold' rating.

http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2012-08/earnings-preview-autodesk-analyst-blog.aspx?storyid=165681

Profile photo of uranium-pinto-beansKnown to most as Uranium Pinto Beans, Jason has more than 15 years under his belt of trading stocks, options and currencies. His expertise primarily lies in chart analysis, and he has a strong eye for undervalued stock. Because he’s got the ability to identify great risk/reward trades he usually enjoys taking the path less traveled and reaping the benefits from the adventure.

He is a co-founder of Option Millionaires, and he is best known for his weekly webinars with Scott, as well as his high level training webinars and charts found in the forums.

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