I do not like to be a told you so type of trader. We are all here to make money and pouring salt in the wounds of someone on the opposite side of a position is not what I would call 'proper etiquette'. So I wont go back to every person who came at me during Boston Beer's(SAM) incredible run up in 2013. A ride we have been on since late December when the stock crossed over $130 on a raised outlook. (First Article Here). We have been bullish almost to a fault... an uber-bull. One that has flooded Social Media with the type of posts and tweets that infuriated those who thought Boston Beer (SAM) sported bloated fundamentals and the run could not be sustained. They screamed as the stock soared to new highs, then cheered and kicked me to the ground when the stock dropped $20 in May on an EPS miss. They made sure to come and find me via twitter and on Stocktwits to let me know how wrong I was. There were countless responses to my blog posts trying to explain why Boston Beer (SAM) was overvalued using P/E ratios, competition, insider sales, and any other data point they could put their finger on.
I even had an argument on Seeking Alpha, my favorite contrarian content provider, over Boston Beer(BEER). At $150 folks were talking about it being overvalued...'Buy the Beer not the Stock" one article said. The other said "Why Beer Investors Have No Reason to Whine" : http://seekingalpha.com/article/1357311-why-beer-investors-have-no-reason-to-whine#comment-23411612
After refuting the negative article, this is what I said...mind you, it's April and the Stock is at $150:
If I was paid $5 everytime I had to argue with Bears on Boston Beer (SAM), I would be rich. High P/E ratio? Insider Sales? 30%+ move in a few months? Competition? Most Analysts with Sell ratings and every analyst with targets below the current share price? And of course bearish posts by folks on Seeking Alpha and other blogs.
Yet like i said at 130/140/150/160 and will at 170 when that comes soon, this stock is going to $200+ whether you like it or not... whether it makes sense to you or not.
Good luck to all! Going to help the EPS by drinking some more SAM -
And that is the key word... profits.
Our most recent trade on Boston Beer (SAM) found us getting calls into earnings at the start of August. We figured a solid beat and break of $200 was imminent and bought the $200 calls.
Here is our purchase:
| 07/31/2013 14:23:23 | Bought 10 SAM Sep 21 2013 210.0 Call @ 0.9 |
| 08/01/2013 15:30:06 | Bought 20 SAM Sep 21 2013 230.0 Call @ 1.1 |
Those $210 calls hit $30k in value today on a $900 investment. We did actually sells those earlier but still have the $230 calls which are sitting at $9.80. One of our many profitable option trades on Boston Beer (SAM) this year.
Here are some of the articles on Boston Beer (SAM) over the past 9 months:
January 25th, 2013 : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/boston-beer-co-inc-sam-crafting-profits-for-shareholders/
February 19th, 2013: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/boston-beer-sam-breaking-out-into-q4-earnings/
February 28th, 2013: https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/boston-beer-sam-follow-up/
April 2nd, 2013 : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/boston-beer-sam-continues-to-defy-gravity/
And of course our call for Boston Beer (SAM) to break the $200 barrier amongst all the negative sentiment:
Our conviction kept us in this trade despite numerous downward catalysts ..ie. Weak earnings, analyst downgrades, macro economic conditions...ect. Will Boston Beer (SAM) continue to move higher? That is the question of the day. We remain bullish on the overall market and think stocks like Boston Beer (SAM) will continue to benefit.
- We loved LNKD at $80 before the herd (Bandwagon): https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/linkedin-lnkd-finally-hit-150-on-blow-out-earnings-report/
- We loved NFLX at $53 before the herd (Bandwagon): https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/netflix-nflx-why-we-trade-options-follow-up/
- : https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2012/netflixnflx-on-the-move/
- We loved BLK at $170 before the herd (Bandwagon): https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2012/blackrock-blk-the-chase-for-performance/
- We loved SODA at $34 before the herd (Bandwagon): https://www.optionmillionaires.com/2012/you-ever-hear-of-sodasodastream-international/
And many more...
Check back for the next profiled stock to defy gravity and provide option traders huge profit potential.
Happy Trading and Stay thirsty my Bears!
- JB
Jimmy,
Great long term call on SAM but I do not remember seeing it posted anywhere when you bought Sept 210 calls back on 7/31. DId you post it on the private twitter feed? Also, I wish you would do more long term options like this SAM one in addition to your weekly lotto plays for those of us who prefer a longer time period.
It seems to me that you have a gift for picking multi bagger options for both long and short term and you want to share this gift with people which is why you tried the Ditto trade thing again. This is very, very commendable on your part. However, ditto is not working out due to too many of your trades having low volume option action and thus some peeps do not get filled at the bid and ask price you put in which is one reason why some folks accounts are at 1K and some at 4K and so on. Plus you sound like the whole ditto thing is stressing you out and causing you to 1) not enter trades you normally would enter and 2) exiting trades before you normally would exit them. So while this ditto trade thing is noble on your part it is not as profitable as possible due to these two things.
May I suggest that to achieve your goal of wanting to help people, you just post all your trades in the chat room and the private twitter feed? This would let folks see what you are doing and then allow them to make their own decisions about what to do in their own accounts. For instance, I may see that you bought SINA weeklys at .50. However I personally may decide that I do not care for SINA or I am comfortable buying the same option at .60 or .70 if I cannot get them at .50. That’s OK. If your concern is that some folks might miss these trades because they cannot follow you on twitter all day every day, oh well. Not a big deal because like you say, there will always be another trade.
So to summarize,
1) In addition to your weekly lotto plays for a stock, why not also suggest a longer term option for the same stock?
2) Drop the ditto idea as it does not allow you to be you. Just post your trades on the private twitter feed and let your followers make their own decision.
Hope you do not mind my long ramble response here. I have come to believe that you and your compatriots, UPB, leemalone, mikey, etc. just want to share your wealth of knowledge and experience when it comes to trading options so regular folks can partake and hopefully prosper. You just need to refine the way you get your message across with the least amount of grief to yourselves..
Cheers,
LP…..Flagman
Flagman,
SAM calls for earnings were posted on watchlist and those are screenshots in the article from my private twitter account where i posted my entry… Also posted that in chat. Not one to post something if I didnt. Sorry you didnt see it.
My nature is not to play things for months and years, so hard to have longer term picks along with my normal stuff. Its like asking a quarterback to play offensive lineman, i just dont do it…
As for the ditto, yes there are folks with different positions. I can only focus on what I am doing and hope for the best. I still post all my trades in private twitter so that hasnt changed.
Appreciate your post and suggestions!
– JB
Jimmy,
I’ve been following OMillionaires on StockTwits, and I just joined at the Silver level. Is there another StockTwits handle (or Twitter handle) I should be following to get your private posts?
Thanks,
Dan